US Intelligence: No Major Change in Iran's Nuclear Program Timeline Amid US-Iran Standoff
According to US intelligence assessments, there has been no significant change in Iran's nuclear weapons development timeline since last summer. Military actions by the US and Israel have delayed Iran's nuclear program by up to one year, but have not fully prevented it.
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- 📰 Published: May 5, 2026 at 16:05
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US-Iran War Key News
Central News
(Central News Agency Washington 4th comprehensive foreign report) Three informed sources revealed that according to US intelligence assessments, there have been no significant changes in Iran's nuclear weapons development timeline since last summer. Analysts point out that after a round of military actions by the US and Israel last year, Iran's nuclear program progress was delayed by at most about one year.
Reuters reported that although part of US President Trump's military actions this year aimed to stop Iran's nuclear weapons development, after more than two months of conflict, the US assessment of Tehran's nuclear program timeline remains largely unchanged.
The US and Israel jointly attacked Iran on February 28 this year, mainly targeting traditional military objectives. Israel also struck multiple key nuclear facilities. However, the time required for Iran to develop nuclear weapons has not changed, indicating that to significantly weaken Iran's nuclear program, it may be necessary to destroy or remove Iran's remaining highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile.
Since the US and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement on April 7 and promoted peace talks, the conflict has been stalemated. However, deep divisions remain between the two sides, coupled with Iran's near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, affecting about 20% of global oil supply and causing an energy crisis.
US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth stated that the US continues to negotiate with Iran to ensure it cannot acquire nuclear weapons.
Two sources indicated that before Operation Midnight Hammer, a 12-day operation in June last year, US intelligence agencies assessed that Iran could produce enough weapons-grade enriched uranium and build a nuclear bomb in about 3 to 6 months. However, after US airstrikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan nuclear facilities, the US intelligence assessment extended that timeline to approximately 9 months to 1 year.
These attacks destroyed or severely damaged three operational nuclear enrichment facilities in Iran. However, the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) could not confirm the whereabouts of approximately 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, only speculating that about half of it was stored in an underground tunnel facility in Isfahan, but this is difficult to verify.
The IAEA estimated that if further enriched, the existing HEU is sufficient to build 10 nuclear bombs.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence did not respond to requests for comment.
Experts point out that accurately assessing Iran's nuclear capabilities remains quite difficult, even for the world's top intelligence agencies.
In addition, Israeli airstrikes killed several Iranian nuclear scientists, which may also affect its nuclear weapons development. Former UN inspector David Albright said that these actions add uncertainty to Iran's ability to produce an operational nuclear bomb.
He said: "I think everyone agrees that knowledge cannot be bombed away, but technical capabilities can indeed be destroyed." (Translation: Liu Wenyu) 1150505
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Central News
(Central News Agency Washington 4th comprehensive foreign report) Three informed sources revealed that according to US intelligence assessments, there have been no significant changes in Iran's nuclear weapons development timeline since last summer. Analysts point out that after a round of military actions by the US and Israel last year, Iran's nuclear program progress was delayed by at most about one year.
Reuters reported that although part of US President Trump's military actions this year aimed to stop Iran's nuclear weapons development, after more than two months of conflict, the US assessment of Tehran's nuclear program timeline remains largely unchanged.
The US and Israel jointly attacked Iran on February 28 this year, mainly targeting traditional military objectives. Israel also struck multiple key nuclear facilities. However, the time required for Iran to develop nuclear weapons has not changed, indicating that to significantly weaken Iran's nuclear program, it may be necessary to destroy or remove Iran's remaining highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile.
Since the US and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement on April 7 and promoted peace talks, the conflict has been stalemated. However, deep divisions remain between the two sides, coupled with Iran's near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, affecting about 20% of global oil supply and causing an energy crisis.
US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth stated that the US continues to negotiate with Iran to ensure it cannot acquire nuclear weapons.
Two sources indicated that before Operation Midnight Hammer, a 12-day operation in June last year, US intelligence agencies assessed that Iran could produce enough weapons-grade enriched uranium and build a nuclear bomb in about 3 to 6 months. However, after US airstrikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan nuclear facilities, the US intelligence assessment extended that timeline to approximately 9 months to 1 year.
These attacks destroyed or severely damaged three operational nuclear enrichment facilities in Iran. However, the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) could not confirm the whereabouts of approximately 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, only speculating that about half of it was stored in an underground tunnel facility in Isfahan, but this is difficult to verify.
The IAEA estimated that if further enriched, the existing HEU is sufficient to build 10 nuclear bombs.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence did not respond to requests for comment.
Experts point out that accurately assessing Iran's nuclear capabilities remains quite difficult, even for the world's top intelligence agencies.
In addition, Israeli airstrikes killed several Iranian nuclear scientists, which may also affect its nuclear weapons development. Former UN inspector David Albright said that these actions add uncertainty to Iran's ability to produce an operational nuclear bomb.
He said: "I think everyone agrees that knowledge cannot be bombed away, but technical capabilities can indeed be destroyed." (Translation: Liu Wenyu) 1150505
Choose to stand with facts, every sponsorship from you is the power to protect press freedom
Download the Central News Agency's "First-hand News" APP to stay updated with the latest news
The text, images, and videos on this website may not be reproduced, publicly broadcast, publicly transmitted, or utilized without authorization.