Super El Niño Feared to Return, Asia's Energy and Food Supply Under Pressure
Amidst ongoing Middle East conflicts, a powerful El Niño phenomenon is projected to return in mid-year, impacting Asia with concerns over increased energy demand, weakened hydropower, and reduced crop yields. There's a particular concern it might resemble the 'Super El Niño' of 1997-1998.
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MANILA, May 5 (Central News Agency) – With ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, a strong El Niño phenomenon is expected to return in the middle of this year, impacting the Asian region and potentially increasing energy demand, weakening hydropower generation, and affecting crop harvests.
According to AFP, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated last week that El Niño could appear as early as May to July. This naturally occurring climate phenomenon causes sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific to rise, leading to changes in wind patterns, atmospheric pressure, and rainfall, typically occurring every 2 to 7 years.
The WMO said initial indications suggest this El Niño will be strong, with some even predicting a 'Super El Niño'.
This is not good news for Asia, as some Asian countries have often been affected by heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall triggered by El Niño in the past.
Peter van Rensch, a climate scientist at Monash University in Australia, said, "It looks somewhat like the El Niño of 1997-1998, which was perhaps the strongest on record."
However, he also noted that there are still many uncertainties.
● Catastrophic Impact
The 1997 El Niño brought many catastrophic effects, including extreme drought and devastating wildfires in Indonesia, scorching millions of hectares of land and causing regional air pollution.
Indonesian authorities warn that rainfall this year could hit a 30-year low.
Meanwhile, Asia faces tightening energy supplies, and there are concerns about shortages of fertilizers and other industrial and agricultural raw materials, many of which are transported via the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic waterway has been almost closed since the joint attack by the United States and Israel on Iran on February 28, disrupting global fuel supplies.
Haneea Isaad, an energy finance specialist at the U.S. think tank Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), warned that rising temperatures will put additional strain on power grids already facing fuel shortages, as cooling demands will drive up energy consumption.
Dinita Setyawati, a senior energy analyst at the energy think tank Ember, said that El Niño-induced droughts will also impact countries highly reliant on hydropower.
During the 2022 heatwave in Sichuan, China, hydropower generation fell by over 50%, leading to power shortages for residents and industries.
● Agricultural Risks
High temperatures and dry conditions will further exacerbate agricultural risks, a sector already under pressure from rising fertilizer and fuel costs due to conflicts.
BMI, a research division of Fitch Solutions, warns that if agricultural product prices cannot offset rising input and transportation costs, farmers' profits will be squeezed, leading to reduced fertilizer use and lower yields.
This will worsen food price inflation and food insecurity, especially in import-dependent and climate-vulnerable markets.
Isaad also pointed out that in some parts of Asia, El Niño could also bring heavy rainfall and floods, affecting industries such as late-season rice harvests in southern China.
Experts suggest that countries in the region should enhance the resilience of their power systems to extreme weather through energy diversification and a green energy transition.
Setyawati stated, "Solar and wind energy combined with storage systems are more resilient than centralized fossil fuel systems." (Compiled by Liu Wen-yu) 1150505
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According to AFP, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated last week that El Niño could appear as early as May to July. This naturally occurring climate phenomenon causes sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific to rise, leading to changes in wind patterns, atmospheric pressure, and rainfall, typically occurring every 2 to 7 years.
The WMO said initial indications suggest this El Niño will be strong, with some even predicting a 'Super El Niño'.
This is not good news for Asia, as some Asian countries have often been affected by heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall triggered by El Niño in the past.
Peter van Rensch, a climate scientist at Monash University in Australia, said, "It looks somewhat like the El Niño of 1997-1998, which was perhaps the strongest on record."
However, he also noted that there are still many uncertainties.
● Catastrophic Impact
The 1997 El Niño brought many catastrophic effects, including extreme drought and devastating wildfires in Indonesia, scorching millions of hectares of land and causing regional air pollution.
Indonesian authorities warn that rainfall this year could hit a 30-year low.
Meanwhile, Asia faces tightening energy supplies, and there are concerns about shortages of fertilizers and other industrial and agricultural raw materials, many of which are transported via the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic waterway has been almost closed since the joint attack by the United States and Israel on Iran on February 28, disrupting global fuel supplies.
Haneea Isaad, an energy finance specialist at the U.S. think tank Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), warned that rising temperatures will put additional strain on power grids already facing fuel shortages, as cooling demands will drive up energy consumption.
Dinita Setyawati, a senior energy analyst at the energy think tank Ember, said that El Niño-induced droughts will also impact countries highly reliant on hydropower.
During the 2022 heatwave in Sichuan, China, hydropower generation fell by over 50%, leading to power shortages for residents and industries.
● Agricultural Risks
High temperatures and dry conditions will further exacerbate agricultural risks, a sector already under pressure from rising fertilizer and fuel costs due to conflicts.
BMI, a research division of Fitch Solutions, warns that if agricultural product prices cannot offset rising input and transportation costs, farmers' profits will be squeezed, leading to reduced fertilizer use and lower yields.
This will worsen food price inflation and food insecurity, especially in import-dependent and climate-vulnerable markets.
Isaad also pointed out that in some parts of Asia, El Niño could also bring heavy rainfall and floods, affecting industries such as late-season rice harvests in southern China.
Experts suggest that countries in the region should enhance the resilience of their power systems to extreme weather through energy diversification and a green energy transition.
Setyawati stated, "Solar and wind energy combined with storage systems are more resilient than centralized fossil fuel systems." (Compiled by Liu Wen-yu) 1150505
Choose to stand with facts; your every sponsorship is a force to protect press freedom.
Download the Central News Agency 'First-hand News' APP to stay updated with the latest news.
The text, images, and audio/video on this website may not be reproduced, publicly broadcast, or publicly transmitted and used without authorization.