To Counter AUKUS Program Delivery Delays, Australian Think Tank Proposes Leasing Japanese Nuclear Submarines as Contingency
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has proposed that the Australian government consider leasing nuclear submarines from Japan as a contingency plan if the AUKUS nuclear submarine program faces delivery delays. This recommendation was made public in conjunction with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's visit to Australia.
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- 📰 Published: May 4, 2026 at 16:20
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Central News Agency
(Central News Agency reporter Qiu Dezhen, Sydney, 4th) Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi began her visit to Australia on May 3. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) today released a report suggesting that the Australian government should propose to Sanae Takaichi the idea of leasing Japanese nuclear-powered submarines as an alternative in case the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines cannot be delivered on schedule.
ASPI today released the report, "Hedging our bets: A potential Japanese option for managing risk in the AUKUS Optimal Pathway." The report points out that facing the risk that the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines, which the United States and the United Kingdom are assisting Australia in building, may not be delivered on schedule in the 2030s, Australia should consider Japan as an option to hedge against related risks.
The report's author is Richard Gray, former Deputy Director of the Australian "Defence Intelligence Organisation" and current Senior Fellow for "Defence Strategic Planning" at ASPI.
Gray and Mike Hughes, Director of "Defence Strategic Planning" at ASPI, also published a co-authored commentary on the ASPI website today. They suggest that Australia should immediately push for relevant consultations with Japan.
Gray and Hughes warn that Australia needs to consider risks from three aspects: First, the service life of Australia's current six Collins-class submarines must be extended; second, whether the United States can ensure the timely delivery of 3 to 5 Virginia-class submarines; and third, the construction of the SSN-AUKUS nuclear-powered attack submarines in Australia and their delivery to the Royal Australian Navy starting in 2040.
They point out that the叠加 of these risks could lead to Australia losing its independent modernized submarine combat capability within more than a decade, creating a defense gap. They estimate that this gap "could appear as early as 2030 and last until the 2040s."
Gray and Hughes believe that the possibility of the Australian government abandoning key components of the AUKUS "Optimal Pathway" nuclear-powered submarine program is minimal, but leasing or otherwise rapidly acquiring submarines from Japan before discovering that the "Optimal Pathway" is unachievable or severely delayed would be the least costly alternative.
Gray and Hughes believe that Japan has prudent industrial policies and strong manufacturing capabilities, and possesses a young, large, modern, and excellent performing submarine fleet, with continually improving submarine performance and capabilities. In the future, Japan may have excess capacity, and its existing fleet may also have idle submarines.
They believe that Japan and Australia have good relations in trade, diplomacy, and military exchanges, and share a common understanding of potential future threats in the Western Pacific region. Takaichi's visit to Australia is the best time for both sides to begin consultations on submarine leasing. (Editor: Chen Yen-chun) 1150504
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(Central News Agency reporter Qiu Dezhen, Sydney, 4th) Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi began her visit to Australia on May 3. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) today released a report suggesting that the Australian government should propose to Sanae Takaichi the idea of leasing Japanese nuclear-powered submarines as an alternative in case the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines cannot be delivered on schedule.
ASPI today released the report, "Hedging our bets: A potential Japanese option for managing risk in the AUKUS Optimal Pathway." The report points out that facing the risk that the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines, which the United States and the United Kingdom are assisting Australia in building, may not be delivered on schedule in the 2030s, Australia should consider Japan as an option to hedge against related risks.
The report's author is Richard Gray, former Deputy Director of the Australian "Defence Intelligence Organisation" and current Senior Fellow for "Defence Strategic Planning" at ASPI.
Gray and Mike Hughes, Director of "Defence Strategic Planning" at ASPI, also published a co-authored commentary on the ASPI website today. They suggest that Australia should immediately push for relevant consultations with Japan.
Gray and Hughes warn that Australia needs to consider risks from three aspects: First, the service life of Australia's current six Collins-class submarines must be extended; second, whether the United States can ensure the timely delivery of 3 to 5 Virginia-class submarines; and third, the construction of the SSN-AUKUS nuclear-powered attack submarines in Australia and their delivery to the Royal Australian Navy starting in 2040.
They point out that the叠加 of these risks could lead to Australia losing its independent modernized submarine combat capability within more than a decade, creating a defense gap. They estimate that this gap "could appear as early as 2030 and last until the 2040s."
Gray and Hughes believe that the possibility of the Australian government abandoning key components of the AUKUS "Optimal Pathway" nuclear-powered submarine program is minimal, but leasing or otherwise rapidly acquiring submarines from Japan before discovering that the "Optimal Pathway" is unachievable or severely delayed would be the least costly alternative.
Gray and Hughes believe that Japan has prudent industrial policies and strong manufacturing capabilities, and possesses a young, large, modern, and excellent performing submarine fleet, with continually improving submarine performance and capabilities. In the future, Japan may have excess capacity, and its existing fleet may also have idle submarines.
They believe that Japan and Australia have good relations in trade, diplomacy, and military exchanges, and share a common understanding of potential future threats in the Western Pacific region. Takaichi's visit to Australia is the best time for both sides to begin consultations on submarine leasing. (Editor: Chen Yen-chun) 1150504
Choose to stand with facts, every sponsorship is the power to protect press freedom
Download the Central News Agency "First-Hand News" APP to grasp the latest news instantly
Texts, pictures, and audio/video on this website may not be reproduced, publicly broadcast, or publicly transmitted and utilized without authorization.
Keywords: