War Impacts Economy: Scholars Say Southeast Asia's Trust in US Declines, Strengthens Non-Alignment
The Middle East conflict and US policy uncertainties are hitting Southeast Asian economies, leading to a decline in trust towards the US. Scholars analyze that Southeast Asian nations will increasingly strengthen strategic flexibility and avoid taking sides between the US and China. Taiwan's high-tech advantages are noted as an opportunity for cooperation with Southeast Asia.
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- 📰 Published: May 2, 2026 at 21:06
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Middle East War Key News
Central News Agency
(Central News Agency reporter Lee Tsung-hsien, Bangkok, 2nd) The Middle East conflict has triggered an energy crisis, impacting economies across Southeast Asia. Analysis indicates that the US's credibility and image in Southeast Asia are declining, with Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow recently making a rare public criticism of Washington for not providing aid. Scholars believe that Southeast Asian countries will increasingly lean towards maintaining strategic flexibility in the future, avoiding taking sides between the US and China.
As US policy uncertainties rise, such as repeated adjustments to tariff policies, and the Middle East conflict triggers an energy crisis, Southeast Asian economies are being impacted. Continuously rising fuel and transportation costs are pushing up inflation, further suppressing regional economic growth and eroding trust in the United States.
Among Southeast Asian governments, the official who recently publicly criticized the US was Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow. In a recent interview with US media, he stated that Washington had not provided aid to Thailand regarding the economic impact of the Middle East conflict, and that Thailand was seeking support from China and Russia.
Stephen Olson, a senior visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a Singaporean think tank, told the Central News Agency that dissatisfaction with the US has long existed in Southeast Asia. In recent years, with repeated trade policies and escalating geopolitical conflicts, concerns about the US have become more apparent.
He believes that US credibility in Southeast Asia has sharply declined, and the recent public criticism by the Thai Foreign Minister reflects that local officials are increasingly willing to bring previously private views into the open.
Christine Cabasset, a researcher at the Research Institute on Contemporary Southeast Asia (IRASEC) in France, added that the recent Middle East situation has impacted energy and the economy, and Southeast Asian countries are "clearly feeling the pressure." In addition to economic aspects, past tough US approaches to some countries, such as widespread tariffs on Southeast Asia and controversies over invitations to the Democracy Summit, have raised questions and dissatisfaction in the region.
She was referring to the US Democracy Summit held in 2021, where Southeast Asian countries such as Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam were not invited to participate.
Cabasset told the Central News Agency that as the US's image in the region declines, coupled with accumulated distrust from multiple incidents over the past few years, Southeast Asian countries are more inclined to maintain strategic flexibility and avoid taking sides between the US and China.
●Strategic Flexibility to Diversify Risks: Southeast Asia Strengthens Non-Alignment
She believes that in the face of intensifying US-China competition, Southeast Asian countries will maintain security cooperation with the US but will also accelerate the expansion of relations with other countries. "This strategy of diversifying risks already exists and will only become more apparent in the future."
Scholars point out that this strategy is not about shifting to one side, but about reducing risks by expanding partnerships.
Cabasset explained: "In the future, Southeast Asian countries may strengthen cooperation with third-party regions like Europe to diversify risks and enhance their bargaining space."
Regarding how the US should repair trust, she believes that Washington should actively participate in regional mechanism meetings, such as the upcoming ASEAN Summit, and provide concrete support at the economic and trade levels to demonstrate long-term commitment.
She also pointed out that the role of "middle powers" is rising. For example, Australia continues to deepen cooperation with Southeast Asia, and France has proposed a "third way," emphasizing not relying entirely on the US or China, reflecting Europe's attempt to establish independent influence in the region.
Tita Sanglee, a scholar at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, also stated that the current international situation is driving a new round of international cooperation restructuring, especially in the field of energy transition, where countries will seek more diverse partnerships.
Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak once stated that Thailand should play the role of a middle power, no longer passively following major powers, but actively leading international cooperation on issues where it has advantages.
●Enhancing Relations with Southeast Asia: Taiwan Possesses Technological Advantages
In this context, Cabasset believes that Taiwan has advantages in high-tech fields such as semiconductors, and there is room for cooperation with Southeast Asia in supply chain and industrial upgrading needs. Especially under the energy crisis, all countries must face energy transition, thus they will be more inclined to open cooperation with various countries.
However, she also pointed out that Southeast Asian countries will remain highly cautious when developing relations with Taiwan, avoiding sensitive issues related to China. She said: "They (Southeast Asian countries) are willing to cooperate with Taiwan, but they will be very careful not to let the outside world perceive it as confronting China."
Chen Shang-mao, a visiting scholar at Chulalongkorn University, also offered similar views. He believes that Southeast Asian countries will remain cautious when expanding cooperation with Taiwan to avoid touching on China's politically sensitive issues.
He told the Central News Agency that China's advantages in market size and economic incentives still make Southeast Asian countries inclined to maintain close relations.
However, Tita is optimistic that the current situation provides opportunities for Taiwan and other middle powers. She said these countries can strengthen cooperation with Thailand in areas such as trade, technology and artificial intelligence, climate change, renewable energy, and supply chain resilience.
Tita said that although Thailand has taken many pro-China measures, it is still actively seeking strategic independence because "it is never wise to allow any major power to have too much influence over one's country." (Editor: Tang Sheng-yang) 1150502
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Central News Agency
(Central News Agency reporter Lee Tsung-hsien, Bangkok, 2nd) The Middle East conflict has triggered an energy crisis, impacting economies across Southeast Asia. Analysis indicates that the US's credibility and image in Southeast Asia are declining, with Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow recently making a rare public criticism of Washington for not providing aid. Scholars believe that Southeast Asian countries will increasingly lean towards maintaining strategic flexibility in the future, avoiding taking sides between the US and China.
As US policy uncertainties rise, such as repeated adjustments to tariff policies, and the Middle East conflict triggers an energy crisis, Southeast Asian economies are being impacted. Continuously rising fuel and transportation costs are pushing up inflation, further suppressing regional economic growth and eroding trust in the United States.
Among Southeast Asian governments, the official who recently publicly criticized the US was Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow. In a recent interview with US media, he stated that Washington had not provided aid to Thailand regarding the economic impact of the Middle East conflict, and that Thailand was seeking support from China and Russia.
Stephen Olson, a senior visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a Singaporean think tank, told the Central News Agency that dissatisfaction with the US has long existed in Southeast Asia. In recent years, with repeated trade policies and escalating geopolitical conflicts, concerns about the US have become more apparent.
He believes that US credibility in Southeast Asia has sharply declined, and the recent public criticism by the Thai Foreign Minister reflects that local officials are increasingly willing to bring previously private views into the open.
Christine Cabasset, a researcher at the Research Institute on Contemporary Southeast Asia (IRASEC) in France, added that the recent Middle East situation has impacted energy and the economy, and Southeast Asian countries are "clearly feeling the pressure." In addition to economic aspects, past tough US approaches to some countries, such as widespread tariffs on Southeast Asia and controversies over invitations to the Democracy Summit, have raised questions and dissatisfaction in the region.
She was referring to the US Democracy Summit held in 2021, where Southeast Asian countries such as Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam were not invited to participate.
Cabasset told the Central News Agency that as the US's image in the region declines, coupled with accumulated distrust from multiple incidents over the past few years, Southeast Asian countries are more inclined to maintain strategic flexibility and avoid taking sides between the US and China.
●Strategic Flexibility to Diversify Risks: Southeast Asia Strengthens Non-Alignment
She believes that in the face of intensifying US-China competition, Southeast Asian countries will maintain security cooperation with the US but will also accelerate the expansion of relations with other countries. "This strategy of diversifying risks already exists and will only become more apparent in the future."
Scholars point out that this strategy is not about shifting to one side, but about reducing risks by expanding partnerships.
Cabasset explained: "In the future, Southeast Asian countries may strengthen cooperation with third-party regions like Europe to diversify risks and enhance their bargaining space."
Regarding how the US should repair trust, she believes that Washington should actively participate in regional mechanism meetings, such as the upcoming ASEAN Summit, and provide concrete support at the economic and trade levels to demonstrate long-term commitment.
She also pointed out that the role of "middle powers" is rising. For example, Australia continues to deepen cooperation with Southeast Asia, and France has proposed a "third way," emphasizing not relying entirely on the US or China, reflecting Europe's attempt to establish independent influence in the region.
Tita Sanglee, a scholar at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, also stated that the current international situation is driving a new round of international cooperation restructuring, especially in the field of energy transition, where countries will seek more diverse partnerships.
Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak once stated that Thailand should play the role of a middle power, no longer passively following major powers, but actively leading international cooperation on issues where it has advantages.
●Enhancing Relations with Southeast Asia: Taiwan Possesses Technological Advantages
In this context, Cabasset believes that Taiwan has advantages in high-tech fields such as semiconductors, and there is room for cooperation with Southeast Asia in supply chain and industrial upgrading needs. Especially under the energy crisis, all countries must face energy transition, thus they will be more inclined to open cooperation with various countries.
However, she also pointed out that Southeast Asian countries will remain highly cautious when developing relations with Taiwan, avoiding sensitive issues related to China. She said: "They (Southeast Asian countries) are willing to cooperate with Taiwan, but they will be very careful not to let the outside world perceive it as confronting China."
Chen Shang-mao, a visiting scholar at Chulalongkorn University, also offered similar views. He believes that Southeast Asian countries will remain cautious when expanding cooperation with Taiwan to avoid touching on China's politically sensitive issues.
He told the Central News Agency that China's advantages in market size and economic incentives still make Southeast Asian countries inclined to maintain close relations.
However, Tita is optimistic that the current situation provides opportunities for Taiwan and other middle powers. She said these countries can strengthen cooperation with Thailand in areas such as trade, technology and artificial intelligence, climate change, renewable energy, and supply chain resilience.
Tita said that although Thailand has taken many pro-China measures, it is still actively seeking strategic independence because "it is never wise to allow any major power to have too much influence over one's country." (Editor: Tang Sheng-yang) 1150502
Choose to stand with facts; every sponsorship you provide is a force to protect press freedom.
Download the Central News Agency's "First-hand News" APP to stay updated with the latest news.
The text, images, and audio/video on this website may not be reproduced, publicly broadcast, publicly transmitted, or utilized without authorization.