US Public Debt to GDP Ratio Exceeds 100%, Nearing Post-WWII Historical Record
The U.S. public debt-to-GDP ratio has surpassed 100% and is approaching the historical record set after World War II. It is projected to break this record by 2030 and reach 175% by 2056, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability.
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- 📰 Published: May 1, 2026 at 22:25
- 🔍 Collected: May 1, 2026 at 22:31 (6 min after Published)
- 🤖 AI Analyzed: May 2, 2026 at 02:31 (3h 59m after Collected)
(Central News Agency, Washington, 1st, Comprehensive Foreign Report) Latest data shows that the ratio of US public debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has exceeded the unimaginable threshold of 100%, and is approaching the historical record set after World War II.
The "Wall Street Journal" (WSJ) reported that US government data shows that as of the end of March this year, the US held $31.265 trillion in public debt, while the GDP for the previous year was $31.216 trillion, meaning the debt-to-GDP ratio reached 100.2%, and may continue to rise in the future. In comparison, this ratio was 99.5% in the previous fiscal year ending September.
The US federal government's budget deficit in recent years has been close to 6% of GDP, a historically high level, which will undoubtedly exacerbate the debt burden.
For every $1 (approximately NT$31.66) in tax collected, the federal government spends $1.33. This year's budget deficit is estimated to reach $1.9 trillion. This is roughly on par with 2025 levels, when the Republican government successively introduced tax cuts and spending reductions. The final total deficit will depend on US spending on the Iran war, tariff refunds, and the resilience of the US economy.
The US public debt-to-GDP ratio reaching the three-digit mark highlights the fiscal pressure that the US has been accumulating for decades. Despite expressing concern, federal lawmakers from both Democratic and Republican parties still prioritize tax cuts and increased spending when taking action, as these can bring immediate short-term political benefits.
The expanding scale of debt also makes the government more sensitive to interest rates. The federal government currently spends $1 out of every $7 to pay interest. Data from the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows that every 0.1 percentage point increase in interest rates will incur an additional cost of $379 billion over the next decade.
Economists point out that the expanding scale of debt will force the central bank to maintain low interest rates, which may lead to higher inflation. In extreme cases, the government may even need to print money to repay debt.
The US debt-to-GDP ratio reached 106.1% in 1946, setting a historical record high. With the booming economy after World War II, inflation factors, and sharply reduced military spending, the ratio gradually declined over the next decade, falling below 50% in 1957 and even below 40% in 2008.
During the COVID-19 (2019 coronavirus disease) pandemic, the US debt-to-GDP ratio once exceeded 100%, mainly because the epidemic caused economic contraction and the government borrowed heavily to support American families. Afterwards, with the withdrawal of stimulus measures, economic recovery and growth, and high inflation pushing up nominal GDP levels, this ratio declined.
Since 1946, the US has never seen its debt-to-GDP ratio exceed 100% at the end of any fiscal year. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that this ratio will reach 100.6% in the current fiscal year ending September, and is expected to set a new historical record in 2030.
The CBO also estimates that the ratio will climb to 120% by the end of 2036 and even soar to 175% by the end of 2056. These forecasts are based on the planned expiration of US President Donald Trump's measures such as tax exemptions for tips and overtime pay in the coming years, and assume that tariff levels remain at the state before the US Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs illegal.
The Trump administration, however, estimates that the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall to 88% by the end of 2034; this forecast assumes a large increase in tariff revenue, sharp spending cuts, and economic growth far exceeding CBO's estimates. (Compiled by Hong Qi-yuan) 1150501
The "Wall Street Journal" (WSJ) reported that US government data shows that as of the end of March this year, the US held $31.265 trillion in public debt, while the GDP for the previous year was $31.216 trillion, meaning the debt-to-GDP ratio reached 100.2%, and may continue to rise in the future. In comparison, this ratio was 99.5% in the previous fiscal year ending September.
The US federal government's budget deficit in recent years has been close to 6% of GDP, a historically high level, which will undoubtedly exacerbate the debt burden.
For every $1 (approximately NT$31.66) in tax collected, the federal government spends $1.33. This year's budget deficit is estimated to reach $1.9 trillion. This is roughly on par with 2025 levels, when the Republican government successively introduced tax cuts and spending reductions. The final total deficit will depend on US spending on the Iran war, tariff refunds, and the resilience of the US economy.
The US public debt-to-GDP ratio reaching the three-digit mark highlights the fiscal pressure that the US has been accumulating for decades. Despite expressing concern, federal lawmakers from both Democratic and Republican parties still prioritize tax cuts and increased spending when taking action, as these can bring immediate short-term political benefits.
The expanding scale of debt also makes the government more sensitive to interest rates. The federal government currently spends $1 out of every $7 to pay interest. Data from the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows that every 0.1 percentage point increase in interest rates will incur an additional cost of $379 billion over the next decade.
Economists point out that the expanding scale of debt will force the central bank to maintain low interest rates, which may lead to higher inflation. In extreme cases, the government may even need to print money to repay debt.
The US debt-to-GDP ratio reached 106.1% in 1946, setting a historical record high. With the booming economy after World War II, inflation factors, and sharply reduced military spending, the ratio gradually declined over the next decade, falling below 50% in 1957 and even below 40% in 2008.
During the COVID-19 (2019 coronavirus disease) pandemic, the US debt-to-GDP ratio once exceeded 100%, mainly because the epidemic caused economic contraction and the government borrowed heavily to support American families. Afterwards, with the withdrawal of stimulus measures, economic recovery and growth, and high inflation pushing up nominal GDP levels, this ratio declined.
Since 1946, the US has never seen its debt-to-GDP ratio exceed 100% at the end of any fiscal year. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that this ratio will reach 100.6% in the current fiscal year ending September, and is expected to set a new historical record in 2030.
The CBO also estimates that the ratio will climb to 120% by the end of 2036 and even soar to 175% by the end of 2056. These forecasts are based on the planned expiration of US President Donald Trump's measures such as tax exemptions for tips and overtime pay in the coming years, and assume that tariff levels remain at the state before the US Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs illegal.
The Trump administration, however, estimates that the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall to 88% by the end of 2034; this forecast assumes a large increase in tariff revenue, sharp spending cuts, and economic growth far exceeding CBO's estimates. (Compiled by Hong Qi-yuan) 1150501