Lien Hsien-ming: Taiwan Could Face Big Trouble If Defense Budget Unresolved Before Trump-Xi Meeting
Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research President Lien Hsien-ming warns that if Taiwan fails to resolve its defense budget issue before US President Trump's mid-May meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, it could face significant trouble. Trump prioritizes Taiwan's cooperative stance, and uncooperative behavior could lead to unpredictable actions, emphasizing the need for Taiwan to demonstrate its commitment.
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- 📰 Published: May 1, 2026 at 14:15
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(Taipei, May 1st, Central News Agency reporter Chao Min-ya) US President Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing in mid-May to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Lien Hsien-ming, President of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, stated today that American think tank scholars recently visited various places, and many legislators, behind closed doors, expressed support for a special defense budget, but it faces numerous difficulties, and "they are also unclear about the root of the problem." If this issue cannot be resolved before the Trump-Xi meeting, Taiwan could face significant trouble.
Lien Hsien-ming shared on social media (Facebook) that when he previously exchanged views with American think tank scholars, they offered various insights into Trump's decision-making style and the Taiwan issue.
Lien Hsien-ming pointed out that American scholars believe Trump needs to deal with domestic politics and international conflicts, and Taiwan is not his top priority. Under these circumstances, Taiwan's best strategy is to lie low and avoid attracting Trump's attention unnecessarily.
He further explained that when Trump focuses on Taiwan, such as when the Trump-Xi meeting is imminent, he will review items like the US-Taiwan trade deficit, bilateral trade agreements, semiconductor supply chains, US-Taiwan energy cooperation, and defense expenditures. If Taiwan demonstrates a high degree of cooperation on relevant issues, meeting Trump's standards for allies, he will shift his attention to other targets.
Lien Hsien-ming emphasized that if Trump believes Taiwan is uncooperative, his reactions are harder to predict. Compared to generally distinguishing economic, political, or security areas and using trade means for trade problems or military means for military problems, Trump tends to conduct everything based on transactional interests. "His negotiation model is extreme pressure, and his negotiation tactics are limitless."
Lien Hsien-ming relayed a friendly reminder from American scholars, stating that before the Trump-Xi meeting, Taiwan should make Trump feel that Taiwan is a cooperative ally. If, in the few times Trump pays attention, he finds Taiwan uncooperative, his subsequent actions to express dissatisfaction are unpredictable. These could include suddenly canceling future arms sales, demanding increased investment in the US, or revoking ongoing bilateral tax agreements.
Lien Hsien-ming pointed out that most US think tanks currently still support Taiwan, but some also feel that the US should not incur strategic risks with China over Taiwan. Taiwan needs to show its determination and capability for self-defense; otherwise, it will be difficult to persuade the American public to continue supporting Taiwan. "This is also where it's most difficult for them to speak up for Taiwan."
Lien Hsien-ming stated that when American think tank scholars visited various places, many legislators (from all three parties: blue, green, and white), behind closed doors, expressed support for a special defense budget, but it is actually fraught with difficulties, and "they are also unclear about the root of the problem." However, if this problem is not resolved before the Trump-Xi meeting, Taiwan could face significant trouble. (Edited by Lin Shu-yuan) 1150501
Lien Hsien-ming shared on social media (Facebook) that when he previously exchanged views with American think tank scholars, they offered various insights into Trump's decision-making style and the Taiwan issue.
Lien Hsien-ming pointed out that American scholars believe Trump needs to deal with domestic politics and international conflicts, and Taiwan is not his top priority. Under these circumstances, Taiwan's best strategy is to lie low and avoid attracting Trump's attention unnecessarily.
He further explained that when Trump focuses on Taiwan, such as when the Trump-Xi meeting is imminent, he will review items like the US-Taiwan trade deficit, bilateral trade agreements, semiconductor supply chains, US-Taiwan energy cooperation, and defense expenditures. If Taiwan demonstrates a high degree of cooperation on relevant issues, meeting Trump's standards for allies, he will shift his attention to other targets.
Lien Hsien-ming emphasized that if Trump believes Taiwan is uncooperative, his reactions are harder to predict. Compared to generally distinguishing economic, political, or security areas and using trade means for trade problems or military means for military problems, Trump tends to conduct everything based on transactional interests. "His negotiation model is extreme pressure, and his negotiation tactics are limitless."
Lien Hsien-ming relayed a friendly reminder from American scholars, stating that before the Trump-Xi meeting, Taiwan should make Trump feel that Taiwan is a cooperative ally. If, in the few times Trump pays attention, he finds Taiwan uncooperative, his subsequent actions to express dissatisfaction are unpredictable. These could include suddenly canceling future arms sales, demanding increased investment in the US, or revoking ongoing bilateral tax agreements.
Lien Hsien-ming pointed out that most US think tanks currently still support Taiwan, but some also feel that the US should not incur strategic risks with China over Taiwan. Taiwan needs to show its determination and capability for self-defense; otherwise, it will be difficult to persuade the American public to continue supporting Taiwan. "This is also where it's most difficult for them to speak up for Taiwan."
Lien Hsien-ming stated that when American think tank scholars visited various places, many legislators (from all three parties: blue, green, and white), behind closed doors, expressed support for a special defense budget, but it is actually fraught with difficulties, and "they are also unclear about the root of the problem." However, if this problem is not resolved before the Trump-Xi meeting, Taiwan could face significant trouble. (Edited by Lin Shu-yuan) 1150501