War and climate squeeze global rice supply, prices likely to rise
Due to fertilizer shortages and soaring fuel costs caused by the Iran war, and the impact of the El Niño phenomenon, rice cultivation areas in Asian countries are shrinking, and global rice supply is expected to tighten. This could lead to soaring rice prices, potentially burdening households, especially in Asia and Africa.
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- 📰 Published: April 30, 2026 at 19:37
- 🔍 Collected: April 30, 2026 at 20:01 (24 min after Published)
- 🤖 AI Analyzed: May 1, 2026 at 09:09 (13h 7m after Collected)
Iran-US War Key News
Central News Agency
(Central News Agency, Singapore/Bangkok 30th, comprehensive foreign reports) Affected by fertilizer shortages and soaring fuel costs triggered by the Iran war, farmers in many Asian countries have reduced their planting areas. Coupled with the possibility of the El Niño phenomenon further compressing production, the global rice supply is likely to decline.
Reuters reported that rice is the most consumed staple crop globally and is crucial for world food security. Even a slight disruption in supply can trigger a chain reaction in various countries, pushing up prices and increasing the burden on household budgets, especially in price-sensitive regions such as Asia and Africa. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicted in April that rice production in the 2025/26 season would increase by 2%, reaching a new historical high.
However, industry insiders point out that the impact of the Iran war has spread to major exporters Thailand and Vietnam, as well as import-dependent Philippines and Indonesia. Under the Middle East conflict, the critical Strait of Hormuz is almost closed, hindering fuel and fertilizer supplies; the Strait of Hormuz is a key chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets.
In addition, as the El Niño phenomenon is expected to bring hotter and drier weather to Southeast Asia in the second half of this year, the smallholder-dominated agricultural systems in Southeast Asia are facing increasing pressure.
Maximo Torero Cullen, Chief Economist of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, stated: "Farmers in some countries have started planting rice, but due to increased costs, they have reduced the agricultural resources used. We expect the global food supply situation to be tighter in the second half of this year and early next year."
In 2008, major rice exporting countries adopted measures to restrict or ban rice exports to curb domestic inflation and protect domestic demand, causing rice prices to double in a short period to about US$1,000 per metric ton and leading to "food riots" in many countries. The supply tightness in 2022-2023, coupled with India's renewed restrictions on some rice exports, also pushed up rice prices and triggered panic buying. (Compiler: Liu Wen-yu) 1150430
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Central News Agency
(Central News Agency, Singapore/Bangkok 30th, comprehensive foreign reports) Affected by fertilizer shortages and soaring fuel costs triggered by the Iran war, farmers in many Asian countries have reduced their planting areas. Coupled with the possibility of the El Niño phenomenon further compressing production, the global rice supply is likely to decline.
Reuters reported that rice is the most consumed staple crop globally and is crucial for world food security. Even a slight disruption in supply can trigger a chain reaction in various countries, pushing up prices and increasing the burden on household budgets, especially in price-sensitive regions such as Asia and Africa. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicted in April that rice production in the 2025/26 season would increase by 2%, reaching a new historical high.
However, industry insiders point out that the impact of the Iran war has spread to major exporters Thailand and Vietnam, as well as import-dependent Philippines and Indonesia. Under the Middle East conflict, the critical Strait of Hormuz is almost closed, hindering fuel and fertilizer supplies; the Strait of Hormuz is a key chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets.
In addition, as the El Niño phenomenon is expected to bring hotter and drier weather to Southeast Asia in the second half of this year, the smallholder-dominated agricultural systems in Southeast Asia are facing increasing pressure.
Maximo Torero Cullen, Chief Economist of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, stated: "Farmers in some countries have started planting rice, but due to increased costs, they have reduced the agricultural resources used. We expect the global food supply situation to be tighter in the second half of this year and early next year."
In 2008, major rice exporting countries adopted measures to restrict or ban rice exports to curb domestic inflation and protect domestic demand, causing rice prices to double in a short period to about US$1,000 per metric ton and leading to "food riots" in many countries. The supply tightness in 2022-2023, coupled with India's renewed restrictions on some rice exports, also pushed up rice prices and triggered panic buying. (Compiler: Liu Wen-yu) 1150430
Choose to stand with the facts. Every sponsorship you provide is a force to protect press freedom.
Download the Central News Agency "First-hand News" APP to stay updated with the latest news.
The text, images, and audio-visual content on this website may not be reproduced, publicly broadcast, or publicly transmitted and used without authorization.