Scholar: China May Isolate Taiwan with Customs Checks; US and Allies Must Respond
U.S. scholar Eyck Freymann suggests China might 'quarantine' Taiwan through sea and air customs checks, reshaping regional and global economies without military force. He warns that the U.S. and its allies must prepare for this 'gray zone crisis,' rather than solely focusing on a full-scale invasion.
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Central News Agency
(Central News Agency reporter Liao Han-yuan, New York, 30th) U.S. scholar Eyck Freymann stated in his article "Taiwan's Real Threat" published on the "Foreign Affairs" website on the 29th that China might restrict the entry and exit of ships and flights to Taiwan through sea and air customs checks, thereby reshaping regional and global economies without using military force. He pointed out that the U.S. is still preparing for a large-scale invasion by the People's Liberation Army and must plan ahead with its allies to avoid a gray zone crisis.
Eyck Freymann, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, published a lengthy article on the 29th in "Foreign Affairs" titled "Taiwan's Real Threat, and America's Wrong War," arguing that China could restrict the movement of people and goods into and out of Taiwan through customs laws, effectively a 'quarantine' under gray zone tactics. He believes the U.S. and its allies must prepare in advance.
Freymann simulated a possible scenario: one morning, dozens of Chinese coast guard fast boats begin "routine customs inspections" of merchant ships approaching Taiwanese ports, and air traffic control departments start demanding manifests from flights entering and exiting Taiwan. Beijing would consider this simply enforcing Chinese customs laws, asserting its right to regulate people and goods entering and exiting "Taiwan Province."
Almost all international airlines and shipping operators would quickly decide to comply with China's demands. Private operators would not want their ships and cargo planes detained for investigation or face worse situations. They would have few choices, as insurance companies would not cover operators who defy. International flights and cargo ships entering Taiwan would suddenly have to divert to Fujian ports before proceeding to their next destinations, effectively allowing Beijing to control most of Taiwan's external connections.
Chinese diplomats would assert that this is not a blockade and emphasize no intention to cut off supplies to Taiwan, stating that people and goods can continue to move freely as long as Chinese laws are obeyed. However, weapons, dual-use components that can form equipment, U.S. military advisors, and members of the Democratic Progressive Party deemed separatists by Beijing might find it difficult to obtain entry and exit permits. TSMC engineers and their families might also be included.
The White House would quickly understand the core of the problem, and the burden of escalation would now fall on the U.S. Although China's actions would cause tension, they would not cut off supply chains. This would not be a traditional military invasion. Taiwan's most important export, GPU chips driving the AI revolution, would still be able to be exported to the U.S.
If Washington accepts this new normal, it would be tantamount to defeat. Taiwan, lacking defensive equipment, would quickly lose its leverage against China's threats. At that point, the U.S. would not be able to trust Beijing to allow Taiwan to continue exporting AI chips long-term. Theoretically, the U.S. could destroy or paralyze TSMC to prevent China from acquiring cutting-edge manufacturing capabilities, but this would impact finance unless Washington accepts significant economic impacts on itself and the world, allowing China to gain AI production capacity.
Even worse, if Beijing controls the movement of people and goods into and out of Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea would face similar coercion. China would not need to attack these countries with military force; it could weaponize the economies of various countries by pressuring private shipping and air operators to deal with the U.S., reshaping regional and global economic order without war.
Freymann believes that U.S. policymakers have invested significant resources in preparing for a potential large-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan, but a 'quarantine' under gray zone tactics is the most likely path. The U.S. lacks an integrated strategy to manage such crises.
The U.S. must not only prevent war but also avoid similar crises in Taiwan through deterrence, demonstrating to China that it is prepared for the political and economic impacts that could trigger a crisis, and establishing plans with allies before a crisis. (Edited by Chen Cheng-kung) 1150501
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(Central News Agency reporter Liao Han-yuan, New York, 30th) U.S. scholar Eyck Freymann stated in his article "Taiwan's Real Threat" published on the "Foreign Affairs" website on the 29th that China might restrict the entry and exit of ships and flights to Taiwan through sea and air customs checks, thereby reshaping regional and global economies without using military force. He pointed out that the U.S. is still preparing for a large-scale invasion by the People's Liberation Army and must plan ahead with its allies to avoid a gray zone crisis.
Eyck Freymann, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, published a lengthy article on the 29th in "Foreign Affairs" titled "Taiwan's Real Threat, and America's Wrong War," arguing that China could restrict the movement of people and goods into and out of Taiwan through customs laws, effectively a 'quarantine' under gray zone tactics. He believes the U.S. and its allies must prepare in advance.
Freymann simulated a possible scenario: one morning, dozens of Chinese coast guard fast boats begin "routine customs inspections" of merchant ships approaching Taiwanese ports, and air traffic control departments start demanding manifests from flights entering and exiting Taiwan. Beijing would consider this simply enforcing Chinese customs laws, asserting its right to regulate people and goods entering and exiting "Taiwan Province."
Almost all international airlines and shipping operators would quickly decide to comply with China's demands. Private operators would not want their ships and cargo planes detained for investigation or face worse situations. They would have few choices, as insurance companies would not cover operators who defy. International flights and cargo ships entering Taiwan would suddenly have to divert to Fujian ports before proceeding to their next destinations, effectively allowing Beijing to control most of Taiwan's external connections.
Chinese diplomats would assert that this is not a blockade and emphasize no intention to cut off supplies to Taiwan, stating that people and goods can continue to move freely as long as Chinese laws are obeyed. However, weapons, dual-use components that can form equipment, U.S. military advisors, and members of the Democratic Progressive Party deemed separatists by Beijing might find it difficult to obtain entry and exit permits. TSMC engineers and their families might also be included.
The White House would quickly understand the core of the problem, and the burden of escalation would now fall on the U.S. Although China's actions would cause tension, they would not cut off supply chains. This would not be a traditional military invasion. Taiwan's most important export, GPU chips driving the AI revolution, would still be able to be exported to the U.S.
If Washington accepts this new normal, it would be tantamount to defeat. Taiwan, lacking defensive equipment, would quickly lose its leverage against China's threats. At that point, the U.S. would not be able to trust Beijing to allow Taiwan to continue exporting AI chips long-term. Theoretically, the U.S. could destroy or paralyze TSMC to prevent China from acquiring cutting-edge manufacturing capabilities, but this would impact finance unless Washington accepts significant economic impacts on itself and the world, allowing China to gain AI production capacity.
Even worse, if Beijing controls the movement of people and goods into and out of Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea would face similar coercion. China would not need to attack these countries with military force; it could weaponize the economies of various countries by pressuring private shipping and air operators to deal with the U.S., reshaping regional and global economic order without war.
Freymann believes that U.S. policymakers have invested significant resources in preparing for a potential large-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan, but a 'quarantine' under gray zone tactics is the most likely path. The U.S. lacks an integrated strategy to manage such crises.
The U.S. must not only prevent war but also avoid similar crises in Taiwan through deterrence, demonstrating to China that it is prepared for the political and economic impacts that could trigger a crisis, and establishing plans with allies before a crisis. (Edited by Chen Cheng-kung) 1150501
Choose to stand with facts; every sponsorship you provide is a force for protecting press freedom.
Download the Central News Agency's "First-hand News" APP to stay updated with the latest news.
The text, images, and videos on this website may not be reproduced, publicly broadcast, or publicly transmitted and used without authorization.