Fubon Financial Looks at H2 Economy: Strait of Hormuz Unblocking in 1 Month is Key
Fubon Financial analyzed that if navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is not restored within one month, major economies and Asian economies may face downside risks in the second half of this year, and financial market assets will face revaluation pressure. The report also mentioned SpaceX's IPO and the overheating of the Taiwan stock market.
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- 📰 Published: April 30, 2026 at 23:25
- 🔍 Collected: April 30, 2026 at 23:31 (6 min after Published)
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Central News Agency (Taipei, Central News Agency reporter Su Siyun on the 30th) Fubon Financial today analyzed the global economic situation. Fubon Financial economist Chiu Yu-chieh stated that if the Strait of Hormuz does not resume shipping within the next month, it may lead to the stagnation of some industrial chains, and major countries and Asian economies may face downside risks in the second half of this year. Financial market assets will also face pressure for revaluation.
Fubon Financial Holding held an exchange event for its Economic Research Department today, attended by Fubon Financial Holding Chief Economist Lo Wei, Economist Chiu Yu-chieh, Fubon Securities Investment Trust General Manager Chen Yong-jun, and Taipei Fubon Bank Senior Associate Yu Min-chun.
Chiu Yu-chieh pointed out that after the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz impacted countries that rely on energy imports from the Middle East, with Asian countries bearing the brunt. Rising oil prices not only pushed up inflation expectations but also led to recent changes in the attitudes of major central banks, causing asset prices to be revalued. Although the capital market's sharp fluctuations in March have narrowed, the market's biggest concern now is that once the actual supply of oil and other commodities is interrupted, the impact will expand to more industrial chains.
She explained that since the Russia-Ukraine war in 2021, inventory management has become an industry trend, and manufacturers have maintained a certain level of inventory. However, the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted for two months. If it cannot be restored within the next month, it may repeat the supply chain bottlenecks of 2021 and 2022, and major countries and Asian regions may face economic downside risks in the second half of this year.
Lo Wei analyzed that Kevin Warsh, the new candidate for the US Federal Reserve Chairman, is expected to take office on May 15, which will help boost confidence in US dollar assets. Currently, the monetary policies of major central banks are tending towards neutral to tight. Taiwan's central bank governor Yang Chin-long also mentioned the future direction of tightening monetary policy. This year, the government will also adjust its responses more flexibly to cope with price fluctuations.
Lo Wei mentioned that SpaceX plans to IPO in June, with a fundraising scale of up to 75 billion US dollars, which is considered the largest IPO in human history. This case is expected to attract a large amount of capital to the United States, and many assets will experience capital transfers. It is estimated that SpaceX's weight in the S&P 500 index may reach 3.5% to 4%, which will force many passive ETFs to adjust their holdings, and some existing stocks will be crowded out. This effect is expected to begin in late May, urging the market to be vigilant and increase cash positions to cope with possible severe fluctuations in the market in June.
Regarding the Taiwan stock market, Chen Yong-jun pointed out that the Taiwan stock market recently broke through 40,000 points during intraday trading. The ratio of stock market capitalization to GDP, commonly known as the Buffett indicator, has approached 500%. Multiple indicators show that the Taiwan stock market is overheated in the short term. He estimates that within the next 1 to 2 months, the Taiwan stock market will face greater correction pressure, and the pullback may exceed 10%. However, looking at the longer term, there is still potential for new highs by the end of this year.
However, Chen Yong-jun added that although the indicators show signs of overheating, it does not mean that the stock market will immediately correct. In the short term of two weeks, there will still be good news in the market, and the fundamentals also have support. For example, Taiwan's first-quarter corporate profits were outstanding due to the depreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar, and export orders in March also achieved excellent results of over 90 billion US dollars. However, there are hidden concerns about stock valuation. Considering that the Taiwan stock market has already risen sharply in April, investors are advised to take profits appropriately when positive news is released in the next two weeks. (Editor: Yang Lanxuan) 1150430
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Fubon Financial Holding held an exchange event for its Economic Research Department today, attended by Fubon Financial Holding Chief Economist Lo Wei, Economist Chiu Yu-chieh, Fubon Securities Investment Trust General Manager Chen Yong-jun, and Taipei Fubon Bank Senior Associate Yu Min-chun.
Chiu Yu-chieh pointed out that after the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz impacted countries that rely on energy imports from the Middle East, with Asian countries bearing the brunt. Rising oil prices not only pushed up inflation expectations but also led to recent changes in the attitudes of major central banks, causing asset prices to be revalued. Although the capital market's sharp fluctuations in March have narrowed, the market's biggest concern now is that once the actual supply of oil and other commodities is interrupted, the impact will expand to more industrial chains.
She explained that since the Russia-Ukraine war in 2021, inventory management has become an industry trend, and manufacturers have maintained a certain level of inventory. However, the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted for two months. If it cannot be restored within the next month, it may repeat the supply chain bottlenecks of 2021 and 2022, and major countries and Asian regions may face economic downside risks in the second half of this year.
Lo Wei analyzed that Kevin Warsh, the new candidate for the US Federal Reserve Chairman, is expected to take office on May 15, which will help boost confidence in US dollar assets. Currently, the monetary policies of major central banks are tending towards neutral to tight. Taiwan's central bank governor Yang Chin-long also mentioned the future direction of tightening monetary policy. This year, the government will also adjust its responses more flexibly to cope with price fluctuations.
Lo Wei mentioned that SpaceX plans to IPO in June, with a fundraising scale of up to 75 billion US dollars, which is considered the largest IPO in human history. This case is expected to attract a large amount of capital to the United States, and many assets will experience capital transfers. It is estimated that SpaceX's weight in the S&P 500 index may reach 3.5% to 4%, which will force many passive ETFs to adjust their holdings, and some existing stocks will be crowded out. This effect is expected to begin in late May, urging the market to be vigilant and increase cash positions to cope with possible severe fluctuations in the market in June.
Regarding the Taiwan stock market, Chen Yong-jun pointed out that the Taiwan stock market recently broke through 40,000 points during intraday trading. The ratio of stock market capitalization to GDP, commonly known as the Buffett indicator, has approached 500%. Multiple indicators show that the Taiwan stock market is overheated in the short term. He estimates that within the next 1 to 2 months, the Taiwan stock market will face greater correction pressure, and the pullback may exceed 10%. However, looking at the longer term, there is still potential for new highs by the end of this year.
However, Chen Yong-jun added that although the indicators show signs of overheating, it does not mean that the stock market will immediately correct. In the short term of two weeks, there will still be good news in the market, and the fundamentals also have support. For example, Taiwan's first-quarter corporate profits were outstanding due to the depreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar, and export orders in March also achieved excellent results of over 90 billion US dollars. However, there are hidden concerns about stock valuation. Considering that the Taiwan stock market has already risen sharply in April, investors are advised to take profits appropriately when positive news is released in the next two weeks. (Editor: Yang Lanxuan) 1150430
Choose to stand with facts, every sponsorship you make is a force to protect press freedom.
Download the Central News Agency's "First-hand News" APP to stay updated with the latest news.
The text, images, and videos on this website may not be reproduced, publicly broadcast, or publicly transmitted and used without authorization.