Former Japanese General: Ms. Takaichi's remarks on 'Taiwan contingency' force CCP to rewrite invasion script
Former Japan Ground Self-Defense Force General Kiyoshi Ogawa analyzed that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks on a 'Taiwan contingency' have strategically impacted China's invasion plans, potentially leading to early intervention by Japan and the US, forcing China to completely revise its operational script.
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- 📰 Published: April 27, 2026 at 14:20
- 🔍 Collected: April 27, 2026 at 14:31 (11 min after Published)
- 🤖 AI Analyzed: April 28, 2026 at 03:18 (12h 46m after Collected)
Central News Agency
(Central News Agency reporter Dai Yazhen, Tokyo, 27th) Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated during a parliamentary interpellation last year that an escalation of the situation around Taiwan could constitute a "situation threatening Japan's existence." Kiyoshi Ogawa, a former Lieutenant General of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force and currently a researcher at a Japanese think tank, analyzed that this has been interpreted as Japan potentially intervening early in a Taiwan Strait conflict, effectively breaking China's original premise for a Taiwan operation and forcing a complete rewrite of its invasion script. This has a very significant strategic impact.
Kiyoshi Ogawa, former commander of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force Western Army and current researcher at a Japanese think tank, analyzed in a recent lecture that, according to assessments, China's military actions against Taiwan are broadly divided into three phases. The first phase is the "peacetime phase," where social panic is created through cognitive warfare, and forces are gathered under the guise of military exercises, with warships surrounding Taiwan, attempting to prevent foreign military intervention and blockade Taiwan.
The second phase transitions from exercises to actual combat, launching missile attacks on Taiwan's military facilities and paralyzing command systems through cyber warfare. The third phase involves launching a full-scale amphibious landing operation against Taiwan after achieving air and sea superiority.
In November last year, during a House of Representatives Budget Committee interpellation, when asked under what circumstances a blockade of the Taiwan Strait would be considered a "situation threatening Japan's existence," Sanae Takaichi explained, "If a military attack is launched against Taiwan, and a naval blockade is implemented with other means, it could constitute the use of force."
Ogawa pointed out that the key to China's strategy is "quick victory," meaning it must complete control over Taiwan before external forces such as the United States and Japan intervene. However, Sanae Takaichi's remarks moved the determination of a "situation threatening Japan's existence" forward to the first phase of "blockade" operations.
He stated that this is a huge shock to China because their original operational concept was to avoid foreign intervention before the third phase, but now it means that intervention by Japan and the United States could occur from the first phase.
He further explained that military operation plans are usually based on "situation assessment." Once the preconditions change, subsequent troop deployments and operational plans must be readjusted. Now, if foreign intervention occurs earlier, China will inevitably have to re-evaluate the overall pace of its offensive and force allocation. Therefore, Ms. Takaichi's remarks on a "situation threatening Japan's existence" have a very significant strategic impact. This is also why Ms. Takaichi's remarks provoked a strong backlash from China, even demanding their retraction.
Ogawa also pointed out that, according to general military principles, an attacking force needs at least about three times the defending force to effectively break through defenses. Estimating Taiwan's army at approximately 100,000 troops, if China launches an amphibious landing operation, it would need to mobilize about 300,000 troops and bear enormous transportation and logistical pressures, increasing the difficulty of the operation.
On the other hand, Taiwan adopts a strategy of "protracted warfare" and "deep defense," delaying time through coastal and multi-layered defense systems to await external support. This strategy stands in clear contrast to China's "quick victory" concept.
He said that even if China successfully takes Taiwan, it would still face subsequent counter-pressure from Japan, the Philippines, and the US military, requiring additional deployments towards Okinawa and the Philippines, which could further expand the battle line. Overall assessment suggests that it would be extremely difficult for China to easily seize Taiwan. (Edited by Tang Peijun) 1150427
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(Central News Agency reporter Dai Yazhen, Tokyo, 27th) Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated during a parliamentary interpellation last year that an escalation of the situation around Taiwan could constitute a "situation threatening Japan's existence." Kiyoshi Ogawa, a former Lieutenant General of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force and currently a researcher at a Japanese think tank, analyzed that this has been interpreted as Japan potentially intervening early in a Taiwan Strait conflict, effectively breaking China's original premise for a Taiwan operation and forcing a complete rewrite of its invasion script. This has a very significant strategic impact.
Kiyoshi Ogawa, former commander of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force Western Army and current researcher at a Japanese think tank, analyzed in a recent lecture that, according to assessments, China's military actions against Taiwan are broadly divided into three phases. The first phase is the "peacetime phase," where social panic is created through cognitive warfare, and forces are gathered under the guise of military exercises, with warships surrounding Taiwan, attempting to prevent foreign military intervention and blockade Taiwan.
The second phase transitions from exercises to actual combat, launching missile attacks on Taiwan's military facilities and paralyzing command systems through cyber warfare. The third phase involves launching a full-scale amphibious landing operation against Taiwan after achieving air and sea superiority.
In November last year, during a House of Representatives Budget Committee interpellation, when asked under what circumstances a blockade of the Taiwan Strait would be considered a "situation threatening Japan's existence," Sanae Takaichi explained, "If a military attack is launched against Taiwan, and a naval blockade is implemented with other means, it could constitute the use of force."
Ogawa pointed out that the key to China's strategy is "quick victory," meaning it must complete control over Taiwan before external forces such as the United States and Japan intervene. However, Sanae Takaichi's remarks moved the determination of a "situation threatening Japan's existence" forward to the first phase of "blockade" operations.
He stated that this is a huge shock to China because their original operational concept was to avoid foreign intervention before the third phase, but now it means that intervention by Japan and the United States could occur from the first phase.
He further explained that military operation plans are usually based on "situation assessment." Once the preconditions change, subsequent troop deployments and operational plans must be readjusted. Now, if foreign intervention occurs earlier, China will inevitably have to re-evaluate the overall pace of its offensive and force allocation. Therefore, Ms. Takaichi's remarks on a "situation threatening Japan's existence" have a very significant strategic impact. This is also why Ms. Takaichi's remarks provoked a strong backlash from China, even demanding their retraction.
Ogawa also pointed out that, according to general military principles, an attacking force needs at least about three times the defending force to effectively break through defenses. Estimating Taiwan's army at approximately 100,000 troops, if China launches an amphibious landing operation, it would need to mobilize about 300,000 troops and bear enormous transportation and logistical pressures, increasing the difficulty of the operation.
On the other hand, Taiwan adopts a strategy of "protracted warfare" and "deep defense," delaying time through coastal and multi-layered defense systems to await external support. This strategy stands in clear contrast to China's "quick victory" concept.
He said that even if China successfully takes Taiwan, it would still face subsequent counter-pressure from Japan, the Philippines, and the US military, requiring additional deployments towards Okinawa and the Philippines, which could further expand the battle line. Overall assessment suggests that it would be extremely difficult for China to easily seize Taiwan. (Edited by Tang Peijun) 1150427
Choose to stand with the facts. Every sponsorship of yours is a force to protect press freedom.
Download CNA's "First-hand News" APP to grasp the latest news instantly.
The text, images, and audio/video on this website may not be reproduced, publicly broadcast, or publicly transmitted and used without authorization.
Keywords: