TIER Upgrades Economic Growth Rate to 7.56%, AI Drives Dual Engines of Exports and Investment
The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) significantly raised its 2026 economic growth forecast to 7.56%, citing strong AI demand as the primary driver for both exports and investment, propelling Taiwan's economy despite Middle East conflicts.
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- 📰 Published: April 24, 2026 at 14:28
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Central News Agency
(Central News Agency reporter Pan Tzu-hsu, Taipei, 24th) The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) today announced its latest economic forecast. Despite disruptions from the Middle East conflict, strong demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI) continues to support Taiwan's economic boom, leading to a significant upward revision of this year's economic growth rate forecast to 7.56%. Sun Ming-te, Director of TIER's Business Climate Forecasting Center, described Taiwan's economy as having "divine protection" with the boost from AI.
TIER today released its economic forecast, estimating the full-year economic growth rate at 7.56%, a substantial increase of 3.51 percentage points from the January forecast. The main reasons are the continued strong demand for AI, the expansion of capital expenditure in the semiconductor and information and communication technology (ICT) industries, which boosts private investment momentum. At the same time, AI-related applications, rising raw material prices, and the effect of early procurement have boosted the performance of related product exports and export orders, significantly strengthening external demand momentum.
TIER estimates that the growth rates for exports and imports in 2026 will be 27.11% and 21.22% respectively, an upward revision of 13.27 and 10.58 percentage points from the previous forecast. The growth rates for output and input in 2026 have also been revised upwards to 15.74% and 13.33% respectively, an increase of 8.52 and 6.51 percentage points from the previous forecast.
Chang Chien-yi, President of TIER, explained that despite the disruptions from the Middle East conflict, TIER still significantly revised up the full-year economic growth rate because the demand for AI-related supply chains is too strong, with a higher proportion of B2B. Currently, most views on the Middle East war consider it a short-term event, but AI will drive medium-to-long-term investment, thus Taiwan's economy continues to boom.
In addition, TIER predicts that this year's private investment growth rate will be 4.42%, an upward revision of 1.54 percentage points from the previous forecast.
Sun Ming-te pointed out that the AI boom not only drives demand for chips and servers, but now memory and components are also in short supply. This investment boom is spreading from AI servers to peripheral products, leading to an increase in demand for industrial factories and offices. "AI-driven exports and investment are the biggest highlights of Taiwan's economy."
Although Taiwan's economic growth is brilliant, the surge in international raw material prices due to the Middle East conflict has indeed pushed up Taiwan's import prices, laying the groundwork for inflation concerns.
TIER considers that with the government actively promoting price stabilization measures, imported inflationary pressure is still controllable. It predicts that the CPI growth rate in 2026 will be 1.89%, an upward revision of 0.23 percentage points from the previous forecast, still below the 2% inflation alert line.
Sun Ming-te explained that inflation is divided into supply-side push and demand-side pull. This inflation belongs to the former, triggered by rising costs. Supply-side inflation should not be dealt with by central bank interest rate hikes, but by measures such as reducing commodity taxes and subsidies, suppressing prices from the source, which will also weaken the effect transmitted to the downstream.
Sun Ming-te frankly stated that TIER's slight upward revision of the full-year CPI forecast this time is precisely because the government's supply-side rescue policies have been effective. In fact, not only Taiwan, but also Japan and South Korea have similar policies, stabilizing prices through subsidy policies to avoid harming the economic fundamentals.
TIER expects this year's economic growth rate to stand above 7%, but uncertainties such as the Middle East conflict and energy risks, and the subsequent development of US tariff policies, still require careful attention.
Sun Ming-te reminded that, according to The Economist, if the Middle East war continues for more than half a year, it may trigger stagflation and systemic risks.
Chang Chien-yi further pointed out that although the probability is not high, if it evolves into stagflation, and the US economy is hit, consumer spending will be significantly reduced, affecting AI applications. It remains to be seen whether this will weaken upstream AI investment and impact Taiwan's exports.
TIER also announced today the business climate survey points for the three major industries in March. The manufacturing industry's business climate survey point in March was 95.95 points, a slight decrease; the service industry's business climate survey point was 97.50 points, an increase of 3.92 points; and the construction industry's survey point was 91.19 points, a decrease of 5.26 points, falling for three consecutive months.
As the New Youth Loan is set to expire at the end of July this year, media asked whether Chang Chien-yi, as a central bank director, believes the policy should be extended.
Chang Chien-yi stated that encouraging young people to buy homes is a good policy and is expected to be relaunched, but to avoid speculative cases, adjustments are expected, such as loan terms and amounts. The government should have relevant配套 measures. (Editors: Zhai Sijia) 1150424
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(Central News Agency reporter Pan Tzu-hsu, Taipei, 24th) The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) today announced its latest economic forecast. Despite disruptions from the Middle East conflict, strong demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI) continues to support Taiwan's economic boom, leading to a significant upward revision of this year's economic growth rate forecast to 7.56%. Sun Ming-te, Director of TIER's Business Climate Forecasting Center, described Taiwan's economy as having "divine protection" with the boost from AI.
TIER today released its economic forecast, estimating the full-year economic growth rate at 7.56%, a substantial increase of 3.51 percentage points from the January forecast. The main reasons are the continued strong demand for AI, the expansion of capital expenditure in the semiconductor and information and communication technology (ICT) industries, which boosts private investment momentum. At the same time, AI-related applications, rising raw material prices, and the effect of early procurement have boosted the performance of related product exports and export orders, significantly strengthening external demand momentum.
TIER estimates that the growth rates for exports and imports in 2026 will be 27.11% and 21.22% respectively, an upward revision of 13.27 and 10.58 percentage points from the previous forecast. The growth rates for output and input in 2026 have also been revised upwards to 15.74% and 13.33% respectively, an increase of 8.52 and 6.51 percentage points from the previous forecast.
Chang Chien-yi, President of TIER, explained that despite the disruptions from the Middle East conflict, TIER still significantly revised up the full-year economic growth rate because the demand for AI-related supply chains is too strong, with a higher proportion of B2B. Currently, most views on the Middle East war consider it a short-term event, but AI will drive medium-to-long-term investment, thus Taiwan's economy continues to boom.
In addition, TIER predicts that this year's private investment growth rate will be 4.42%, an upward revision of 1.54 percentage points from the previous forecast.
Sun Ming-te pointed out that the AI boom not only drives demand for chips and servers, but now memory and components are also in short supply. This investment boom is spreading from AI servers to peripheral products, leading to an increase in demand for industrial factories and offices. "AI-driven exports and investment are the biggest highlights of Taiwan's economy."
Although Taiwan's economic growth is brilliant, the surge in international raw material prices due to the Middle East conflict has indeed pushed up Taiwan's import prices, laying the groundwork for inflation concerns.
TIER considers that with the government actively promoting price stabilization measures, imported inflationary pressure is still controllable. It predicts that the CPI growth rate in 2026 will be 1.89%, an upward revision of 0.23 percentage points from the previous forecast, still below the 2% inflation alert line.
Sun Ming-te explained that inflation is divided into supply-side push and demand-side pull. This inflation belongs to the former, triggered by rising costs. Supply-side inflation should not be dealt with by central bank interest rate hikes, but by measures such as reducing commodity taxes and subsidies, suppressing prices from the source, which will also weaken the effect transmitted to the downstream.
Sun Ming-te frankly stated that TIER's slight upward revision of the full-year CPI forecast this time is precisely because the government's supply-side rescue policies have been effective. In fact, not only Taiwan, but also Japan and South Korea have similar policies, stabilizing prices through subsidy policies to avoid harming the economic fundamentals.
TIER expects this year's economic growth rate to stand above 7%, but uncertainties such as the Middle East conflict and energy risks, and the subsequent development of US tariff policies, still require careful attention.
Sun Ming-te reminded that, according to The Economist, if the Middle East war continues for more than half a year, it may trigger stagflation and systemic risks.
Chang Chien-yi further pointed out that although the probability is not high, if it evolves into stagflation, and the US economy is hit, consumer spending will be significantly reduced, affecting AI applications. It remains to be seen whether this will weaken upstream AI investment and impact Taiwan's exports.
TIER also announced today the business climate survey points for the three major industries in March. The manufacturing industry's business climate survey point in March was 95.95 points, a slight decrease; the service industry's business climate survey point was 97.50 points, an increase of 3.92 points; and the construction industry's survey point was 91.19 points, a decrease of 5.26 points, falling for three consecutive months.
As the New Youth Loan is set to expire at the end of July this year, media asked whether Chang Chien-yi, as a central bank director, believes the policy should be extended.
Chang Chien-yi stated that encouraging young people to buy homes is a good policy and is expected to be relaunched, but to avoid speculative cases, adjustments are expected, such as loan terms and amounts. The government should have relevant配套 measures. (Editors: Zhai Sijia) 1150424
Choose to stand with the facts, every sponsorship you make is a force to protect press freedom
Download the Central News Agency "First-hand News" APP to stay updated with the latest news
The text, images, and audio/video on this website may not be reproduced, publicly broadcast, or publicly transmitted and used without authorization.