Experts: Lessons from Middle East Conflict - Taiwan Must Build Resilience Across All Sectors

(Central News Agency reporter Wu Shu-wei, Taipei, 24th) As the conflict in the Middle East continues, several scholars and experts pointed out today that the revelation for Taiwan is the need to cultivate resilience in sectors such as energy, economy, and military, while also possessing sufficient domestic ammunition production capabilities and stockpiles. The Institute for National Policy Research held a seminar titled 'Global Effects and Taiwan's Security under the US-Israel-Iran Conflict,' inviting several scholars and experts, with Lee Yen-hui, Deputy Minister of the Overseas Community Affairs Council, also in attendance. Li Chun, Director of the Center for Economic Law Research at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research and former representative to the EU, stated that regardless of the content of any final peace agreement, stability in the Middle East remains full of variables. This conflict will cause high-tech and related industry supply chains, led by Taiwan, to leave their original bases, such as China, and accelerate their move towards the US. Although costs in the US are high, its high energy stability can offset the costs of investing there. Former US Department of Defense official Hu Zhen-dong said that Iran launched a large number of missiles, and China naturally hopes the war continues to let the US consume more ammunition, but in reality, US stockpiles in Asia are still there. Through the Middle East conflict, it can be seen that the speed of weapon consumption in wartime is much faster than imagined, so Taiwan needs to be able to manufacture its own ammunition and build strong ammunition depots. As for the lesson for Taiwan, it is to build resilience; for example, energy stockpiles are crucial because they relate to economic resilience, and ways must be found to increase stockpiles. Kuo Yu-jen, Vice President of the Institute for National Policy Research, believes the conflict will continue in a low-intensity form, and the US cannot abandon its air and sea superiority around Iran. The lesson for Taiwan is energy reserves; Taiwan's natural gas reserves and strategic oil reserve days are lower than Japan's. Although it's unlikely for Taiwan to build many storage facilities due to politics and terrain, it doesn't mean Taiwan has nothing to do; it can still find ways to obtain more sources of natural gas and oil. Regarding the military aspect, Kuo pointed out that countries like Taiwan, Japan, Korea, and the Philippines cannot only rely on US strategic stockpiles; Taiwan also needs to increase its missile stockpiles. Professor Wang Shun-wen of the Department of Political Science and Law at National University of Kaohsiung stated that since the Ukraine-Russia war, a war of spears and shields has been played out. Whether drones can change the balance of power or whether Iron Dome can resist, the conclusion is there is no absolute spear or shield; it still returns to resilience. For Taiwan, it needs to cultivate resilience against hybrid warfare. Retired Major General Yu Zong-ji, former Dean of the Political Warfare College at National Defense University, pointed out that the US found problems in ammunition scheduling this time, so it is actively replicating and strengthening the production of precision ammunition globally, and Taiwan is the most direct beneficiary. Japan's military rise offers great space for cooperation with Taiwan; Japan sees Taiwan's whole-of-society defense resilience preparations and also wants to learn from Taiwan's experience. Wang Hong-ren, CEO of the Institute for National Policy Research, stated that Taiwan must position energy security as a core issue of national security, secondly, Taiwan must pragmatically face the high-intensity consumption of modern warfare and include ammunition supply and infrastructure protection in long-term planning, and thirdly, Taiwan cannot only rely on US ammunition and needs sufficient self-production capabilities. Tien Hung-mao, Chairman of the Institute for National Policy Research and Senior Advisor to the President, stated that after the Middle East conflict, the US will move its strategic focus to two places: first, the Americas, and second, the US particularly values its relationship with China, and the focus will also be on the Indo-Pacific region. In the US's global strategic layout, Taiwan's importance will inevitably increase, not decrease.