China's GDP Beats Expectations but Youth Unemployment Rises, Experts Warn of Jobless Growth
Although China's Q1 GDP grew by 5%, the youth unemployment rate continued to rise. Experts warn of a disconnect between economic growth and job creation, citing the risk of 'jobless growth.'
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- 📰 Published: April 24, 2026 at 15:56
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Central News Agency
(CNA Taipei, 24th) Despite China's Q1 GDP growing by 5% year-on-year, the unemployment rate among youth aged 16-24 and 25-29 continued to rise in March. Chinese experts stated that while macroeconomic indicators are positive, the youth unemployment rate remains high, indicating an inconsistency between economic growth and job creation. Considering further technological changes, there is a need to be alert to the emergence of "jobless growth."
China's National Bureau of Statistics recently announced that the surveyed urban unemployment rate in March was 5.4%, a slight increase for the third consecutive month. The unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group (excluding students) was 16.9%, a four-month high, while the rate for the 25-29 age group was 7.7%, the highest since records for this data began. The unemployment rate for the 30-59 age group was 4.3%.
In March, the surveyed unemployment rate for the migrant agricultural workforce, mainly rural migrant workers moving to cities, rose to 5.7%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and a nearly three-year high since the end of the pandemic.
However, China's GDP in the first quarter of this year grew by 5% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of last year, beating market expectations.
Caixin reported on the 24th that from a macroeconomic perspective, China's 5% Q1 GDP growth exceeded market expectations, but employment data has not improved.
Mao Yufei, an associate professor at the School of Labor Economics at Capital University of Economics and Business in China, stated that the unemployment rates of the 16-24 and 25-29 age groups are important indicators for monitoring the youth employment market. The high unemployment among 16-24-year-olds is largely due to lack of experience and information asymmetry. But the 25-29 age group consists of past graduates who have left school. Their unemployment rate reaching 7.7% in March indicates that youth employment pressure may have spread from "new graduates" to "past graduates" or "highly educated groups."
Mao Yufei said that Q1 GDP growth was mainly driven by the real economy, such as infrastructure and manufacturing. These capital-intensive industries have low employment elasticity and drive far fewer jobs than the service sector.
He added that compared to economic recovery, there is a certain lag in employment demand. Enterprises are often in a wait-and-see state initially and will only expand recruitment on a large scale after confirming that the economic recovery is sustainable.
Ouyang Jun, a professor at the Research Institute of Economics and Management at Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, stated that the current macroeconomic recovery relies mainly on industries like high-end manufacturing and new energy infrastructure. Their main carriers are large-scale enterprises that prefer to improve efficiency through capital expansion, meaning their job creation capacity and demand for labor are relatively low. Meanwhile, traditional industries that drive more employment, such as the service sector and real estate, which are dominated by SMEs, are still experiencing weak growth.
Ouyang Jun said this inconsistency between economic growth and job creation momentum may expose China to the risk of "jobless growth."
He further stated that considering state-owned enterprises (SOEs) account for a large proportion of social resources and have significant advantages in asset scale, they should bear corresponding responsibilities in promoting employment. As of the end of 2024, the total assets of national SOEs (excluding financial enterprises) were estimated at 401.7 trillion RMB, accounting for over 50% of the total assets of all enterprises. However, according to the latest data from 2023, state-owned units only absorbed 54 million employed people, making up less than 12% of the 470 million urban employed personnel. (Editors: Chen Kai-yu / Zhu Chien-ling) 1150424
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(CNA Taipei, 24th) Despite China's Q1 GDP growing by 5% year-on-year, the unemployment rate among youth aged 16-24 and 25-29 continued to rise in March. Chinese experts stated that while macroeconomic indicators are positive, the youth unemployment rate remains high, indicating an inconsistency between economic growth and job creation. Considering further technological changes, there is a need to be alert to the emergence of "jobless growth."
China's National Bureau of Statistics recently announced that the surveyed urban unemployment rate in March was 5.4%, a slight increase for the third consecutive month. The unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group (excluding students) was 16.9%, a four-month high, while the rate for the 25-29 age group was 7.7%, the highest since records for this data began. The unemployment rate for the 30-59 age group was 4.3%.
In March, the surveyed unemployment rate for the migrant agricultural workforce, mainly rural migrant workers moving to cities, rose to 5.7%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and a nearly three-year high since the end of the pandemic.
However, China's GDP in the first quarter of this year grew by 5% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of last year, beating market expectations.
Caixin reported on the 24th that from a macroeconomic perspective, China's 5% Q1 GDP growth exceeded market expectations, but employment data has not improved.
Mao Yufei, an associate professor at the School of Labor Economics at Capital University of Economics and Business in China, stated that the unemployment rates of the 16-24 and 25-29 age groups are important indicators for monitoring the youth employment market. The high unemployment among 16-24-year-olds is largely due to lack of experience and information asymmetry. But the 25-29 age group consists of past graduates who have left school. Their unemployment rate reaching 7.7% in March indicates that youth employment pressure may have spread from "new graduates" to "past graduates" or "highly educated groups."
Mao Yufei said that Q1 GDP growth was mainly driven by the real economy, such as infrastructure and manufacturing. These capital-intensive industries have low employment elasticity and drive far fewer jobs than the service sector.
He added that compared to economic recovery, there is a certain lag in employment demand. Enterprises are often in a wait-and-see state initially and will only expand recruitment on a large scale after confirming that the economic recovery is sustainable.
Ouyang Jun, a professor at the Research Institute of Economics and Management at Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, stated that the current macroeconomic recovery relies mainly on industries like high-end manufacturing and new energy infrastructure. Their main carriers are large-scale enterprises that prefer to improve efficiency through capital expansion, meaning their job creation capacity and demand for labor are relatively low. Meanwhile, traditional industries that drive more employment, such as the service sector and real estate, which are dominated by SMEs, are still experiencing weak growth.
Ouyang Jun said this inconsistency between economic growth and job creation momentum may expose China to the risk of "jobless growth."
He further stated that considering state-owned enterprises (SOEs) account for a large proportion of social resources and have significant advantages in asset scale, they should bear corresponding responsibilities in promoting employment. As of the end of 2024, the total assets of national SOEs (excluding financial enterprises) were estimated at 401.7 trillion RMB, accounting for over 50% of the total assets of all enterprises. However, according to the latest data from 2023, state-owned units only absorbed 54 million employed people, making up less than 12% of the 470 million urban employed personnel. (Editors: Chen Kai-yu / Zhu Chien-ling) 1150424
Choose to stand with the facts, every sponsorship from you is the power to guard press freedom
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The text, images, and audio/video on this website are not authorized to be reproduced, publicly broadcast, or publicly transmitted and utilized.