Analysis: War in Iran Depletes Crucial US Munitions, Weakening Readiness Against Russia and China

Washington, CNA – (Central News Agency correspondent from Washington, April 23) Since the outbreak of the Iran war in late February, the United States has expended approximately 1,100 long-range stealth cruise missiles originally prepared for use against China, effectively halving its combat readiness inventory. Additionally, 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles have been used, a figure ten times the current annual procurement.

The New York Times, citing US administration and congressional officials, reported that the Pentagon is now rushing to transfer ammunition and other military equipment from commands in Asia and Europe to the Middle East. Officials from the Trump administration and Congress stated that these reallocations have reduced the combat readiness of relevant regional commands against potential adversaries such as Russia and China.

Furthermore, according to internal Pentagon estimates and congressional officials, the US military has used over 1,200 Patriot interceptor missiles and more than 1,000 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) ground-based missiles in the Iran war, bringing these stockpiles to a low point.

The conflict also highlights the Pentagon's over-reliance on expensive missiles and ammunition, particularly air defense interceptors, and raises concerns about the defense industry's ability to rapidly develop low-cost weapons like suicide drones.

The New York Times believes the biggest impact remains on deployments in Asia. Before the Iran war, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group was redeployed from the South China Sea to the Middle East. Subsequently, two Marine Expeditionary Units, each comprising about 2,200 Marines, were transferred from the Pacific to the Middle East.

The Pentagon also moved advanced air defense systems from Asia to the Middle East, including Patriot missiles and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors from US forces stationed in South Korea. South Korea is the only ally in Asia deploying this advanced missile defense system, used to counter North Korea's growing missile threat.

Officials stated that even before the Iran war, US military readiness in the Pacific region had already been affected by troop movements. In October 2023, after a new round of conflict between Israel and Hamas broke out in Gaza, and Yemen's Houthi rebels began attacking ships in the Red Sea in support of Palestine, the US military increased its presence in the Middle Eastern airspace and seas, weakening its forces in the Pacific.

The Wall Street Journal also quoted US officials today, reporting that with the extensive use of munitions against Iran, if Beijing were to invade Taiwan in the short term, the US might not be able to fully execute its contingency defense plans for Taiwan.

US officials pointed out that since the war against Iran began on February 28, the US has fired over 1,000 long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles and used between 1,500 to 2,000 crucial air defense munitions, including THAAD, Patriot, and Standard Missiles.

Officials indicated that replenishing these stockpiles could take up to six years, prompting discussions within the US government on whether operational plans would need adjustment if the president ordered the military to defend Taiwan.

Analysts noted that ample ammunition reserves are crucial for confronting China's vast missile arsenal; these Chinese missiles are likely to be used in an "anti-access/area denial" strategy to deter foreign forces from intervening during an invasion of Taiwan.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a report on April 21, expressing concern over the depletion of US ammunition stockpiles.

The report estimated that Tomahawk cruise missile consumption in Iran accounted for about 27% of the total, Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) about 36%, Standard Missile-6 (SM-6) about one-third, Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) nearly half, Patriot interceptor consumption exceeded 60%, and THAAD interceptor consumption exceeded 80%, indicating a more severe shortage of air defense weapons.

Mark Cancian, a senior fellow at CSIS and co-author of the report, said: "It will take us several years to get our stockpiles back up." (Compilers: Qu Xiangping, Chen Yiwei) 1150424