Former UK Minister: Taiwan Strait Has Entered Strategic Warning Period, UK Should Prepare
Former UK Minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan warns that the Taiwan Strait has entered a 'strategic warning period' and urges the UK government to prepare countermeasures alongside European allies.
📋 Article Processing Timeline
- 📰 Published: April 23, 2026 at 10:00
- 🔍 Collected: April 23, 2026 at 10:31 (30 min after Published)
- 🤖 AI Analyzed: April 23, 2026 at 12:04 (1h 32m after Collected)
Central News Agency (CNA)
(CNA, London, 22nd, Reporter Chen Yun-yu) Former UK Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anne-Marie Trevelyan stated that those within the UK government responsible for providing analysis and advising cabinet ministers on which security threats to prioritize must more clearly communicate the risks of changes occurring in the Taiwan Strait.
Trevelyan revealed that during her tenure, she had never read any intelligence document advising the UK to adjust its strategic posture. Furthermore, the threat landscape assessments for the Indo-Pacific region in relevant documents may not be "honest" enough.
She warned that while many security threats identified by the government might never occur, this is precisely why "black swan events" (events generally considered highly unlikely) often result in catastrophic impacts. Major crises with massive effects usually have a low probability of occurring, but because they are generally unexpected, there is a lack of preparation, often making the consequences far more severe.
Regarding the threat posed by China, Trevelyan argued that as early as the 2010s, when Chinese President Xi Jinping took power, the "strategic warning clock had already started ticking" and counting down, but "we turned a deaf ear."
Trevelyan described that upon hearing the alarm bell, one should know to prepare for the storm, and now the alarm is "ringing very loudly." The UK should preemptively consider the risks that different conflict scenarios in the Taiwan Strait might pose to the UK, categorize them, and prepare the actions the UK should appropriately take under various developing scenarios and escalating or de-escalating situations.
Trevelyan made these remarks in an article written for the research report "A Strategic Warning Period: The UK's Taiwan Challenge." During the last Conservative government in the UK (2010 to 2024), Trevelyan served as Minister of State for Defence, Secretary of State for International Trade, and Minister of State for Indo-Pacific at the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office from 2022 to 2024.
"A Strategic Warning Period: The UK's Taiwan Challenge" was published by the Centre for Grand Strategy (CGS/CSNS) at King's College London (KCL). It is a collection of essays written by domestic and international experts, co-edited by Alessio Patalano, Professor of War and Strategy in East Asia at KCL.
The report's summary noted that the research findings indicate "we are in a Taiwan strategic warning period"; the risk of a severe escalation in the Taiwan Strait is "highly likely to occur within the next 10 years."
The report pointed out that direct military action by Beijing against Taiwan would plunge global security and trade into extreme instability. However, should Chinese leaders determine that the use of force against Taiwan is necessary, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has already made considerable preparations for this mission.
Meanwhile, China's diplomatic system has laid the groundwork for a global information war to prevent external forces from intervening in a Taiwan Strait conflict. The PLA's objective would be to swiftly suppress Taiwan's defense forces across "every operational domain" and force the US and its regional allies into high-risk scenarios, aiming to take control of the island of Taiwan in the shortest possible time before it receives meaningful external support.
The report mentioned that the PLA seeks a "quick victory," but if Taiwan survives the PLA's initial waves of attacks, the conflict could evolve into a "war of attrition," expanding the geographical scope involved. Should the conflict be prolonged, the UK's primary contribution is assessed to be ensuring the security of North Atlantic waters and exerting greater leadership within NATO while the US focuses on operations in the Indo-Pacific region.
It is worth noting that NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told the media last July that stability in the Taiwan Strait is "directly relevant" to European security. If Beijing escalates actions against Taiwan, it is foreseeable that Russia would provide support to Beijing to distract Europe.
The CSNS report indicated that the UK actually has a range of tools at its disposal to deter and counter China, and even influence Beijing's decision-making calculus.
For instance, the report cited that the Chinese "elite class" connected to the authorities in Beijing owns extensive property in the UK, and London plays a key role in offshore Renminbi trading and the international shipping insurance industry; these are all resources the UK could leverage.
In the military domain, the report suggested that should a Taiwan Strait conflict break out, the UK could potentially act as a benchmark for European military response actions.
On the other hand, the UK should begin collaborating now with other European partners to formulate countermeasures, including sanctions against China, and preemptively identify potential targets to facilitate rapid response and coordinated action.
Furthermore, the UK should work with close, friendly partners to signal Beijing that the premise of nations adhering to the "One China policy" is that China itself does not forcibly push for unilateral changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.
The report pointed out that the UK and its allies and partners need to pre-plan a series of action options to break away from the existing "One China policy" framework and restrictions on engagements with Taiwan, in response to an armed attack by China on Taiwan.
However, despite not ruling out the possibility of a military conflict breaking out in the Taiwan Strait within the next 10 years, the report mentioned that given the unpredictable trajectory of war and the damage the use of force would cause to China's international reputation, it is speculated that Beijing will still prioritize seeking non-military means to control Taiwan, including the more frequent use of so-called "law enforcement" actions to demonstrate "jurisdiction" over Taiwan.
In addition, Beijing is assessed to continue escalating its gray-zone conflict operations against Taiwan and maintaining military pressure, creating a recurring cycle of tension to simultaneously test the resolve of Taiwan and other nations.
Such coercive tactics reflect China's preferred strategy toward Taiwan: maintaining pressure without launching an all-out conflict, with the goal of convincing the Taiwanese public that their situation is "beyond saving" and that the United States is fundamentally unreliable.
The report noted that for Beijing, the key variable remains the United States. If Washington is persuaded and thus determines that Taiwan is a destabilizing actor, or if Washington's "America First" policy damages Taiwan's economy, Beijing could seize the opportunity to sow division between Taiwan and the US.
Considering the changing situation in the Taiwan Strait, the report warned that the UK's own strategic warning period "has already begun," and the UK should "now" strengthen its capabilities to prepare actions at home and abroad for a range of potential changes in the Taiwan Strait. (Editor: Tien Jui-hua) 1150423
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(CNA, London, 22nd, Reporter Chen Yun-yu) Former UK Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anne-Marie Trevelyan stated that those within the UK government responsible for providing analysis and advising cabinet ministers on which security threats to prioritize must more clearly communicate the risks of changes occurring in the Taiwan Strait.
Trevelyan revealed that during her tenure, she had never read any intelligence document advising the UK to adjust its strategic posture. Furthermore, the threat landscape assessments for the Indo-Pacific region in relevant documents may not be "honest" enough.
She warned that while many security threats identified by the government might never occur, this is precisely why "black swan events" (events generally considered highly unlikely) often result in catastrophic impacts. Major crises with massive effects usually have a low probability of occurring, but because they are generally unexpected, there is a lack of preparation, often making the consequences far more severe.
Regarding the threat posed by China, Trevelyan argued that as early as the 2010s, when Chinese President Xi Jinping took power, the "strategic warning clock had already started ticking" and counting down, but "we turned a deaf ear."
Trevelyan described that upon hearing the alarm bell, one should know to prepare for the storm, and now the alarm is "ringing very loudly." The UK should preemptively consider the risks that different conflict scenarios in the Taiwan Strait might pose to the UK, categorize them, and prepare the actions the UK should appropriately take under various developing scenarios and escalating or de-escalating situations.
Trevelyan made these remarks in an article written for the research report "A Strategic Warning Period: The UK's Taiwan Challenge." During the last Conservative government in the UK (2010 to 2024), Trevelyan served as Minister of State for Defence, Secretary of State for International Trade, and Minister of State for Indo-Pacific at the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office from 2022 to 2024.
"A Strategic Warning Period: The UK's Taiwan Challenge" was published by the Centre for Grand Strategy (CGS/CSNS) at King's College London (KCL). It is a collection of essays written by domestic and international experts, co-edited by Alessio Patalano, Professor of War and Strategy in East Asia at KCL.
The report's summary noted that the research findings indicate "we are in a Taiwan strategic warning period"; the risk of a severe escalation in the Taiwan Strait is "highly likely to occur within the next 10 years."
The report pointed out that direct military action by Beijing against Taiwan would plunge global security and trade into extreme instability. However, should Chinese leaders determine that the use of force against Taiwan is necessary, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has already made considerable preparations for this mission.
Meanwhile, China's diplomatic system has laid the groundwork for a global information war to prevent external forces from intervening in a Taiwan Strait conflict. The PLA's objective would be to swiftly suppress Taiwan's defense forces across "every operational domain" and force the US and its regional allies into high-risk scenarios, aiming to take control of the island of Taiwan in the shortest possible time before it receives meaningful external support.
The report mentioned that the PLA seeks a "quick victory," but if Taiwan survives the PLA's initial waves of attacks, the conflict could evolve into a "war of attrition," expanding the geographical scope involved. Should the conflict be prolonged, the UK's primary contribution is assessed to be ensuring the security of North Atlantic waters and exerting greater leadership within NATO while the US focuses on operations in the Indo-Pacific region.
It is worth noting that NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told the media last July that stability in the Taiwan Strait is "directly relevant" to European security. If Beijing escalates actions against Taiwan, it is foreseeable that Russia would provide support to Beijing to distract Europe.
The CSNS report indicated that the UK actually has a range of tools at its disposal to deter and counter China, and even influence Beijing's decision-making calculus.
For instance, the report cited that the Chinese "elite class" connected to the authorities in Beijing owns extensive property in the UK, and London plays a key role in offshore Renminbi trading and the international shipping insurance industry; these are all resources the UK could leverage.
In the military domain, the report suggested that should a Taiwan Strait conflict break out, the UK could potentially act as a benchmark for European military response actions.
On the other hand, the UK should begin collaborating now with other European partners to formulate countermeasures, including sanctions against China, and preemptively identify potential targets to facilitate rapid response and coordinated action.
Furthermore, the UK should work with close, friendly partners to signal Beijing that the premise of nations adhering to the "One China policy" is that China itself does not forcibly push for unilateral changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.
The report pointed out that the UK and its allies and partners need to pre-plan a series of action options to break away from the existing "One China policy" framework and restrictions on engagements with Taiwan, in response to an armed attack by China on Taiwan.
However, despite not ruling out the possibility of a military conflict breaking out in the Taiwan Strait within the next 10 years, the report mentioned that given the unpredictable trajectory of war and the damage the use of force would cause to China's international reputation, it is speculated that Beijing will still prioritize seeking non-military means to control Taiwan, including the more frequent use of so-called "law enforcement" actions to demonstrate "jurisdiction" over Taiwan.
In addition, Beijing is assessed to continue escalating its gray-zone conflict operations against Taiwan and maintaining military pressure, creating a recurring cycle of tension to simultaneously test the resolve of Taiwan and other nations.
Such coercive tactics reflect China's preferred strategy toward Taiwan: maintaining pressure without launching an all-out conflict, with the goal of convincing the Taiwanese public that their situation is "beyond saving" and that the United States is fundamentally unreliable.
The report noted that for Beijing, the key variable remains the United States. If Washington is persuaded and thus determines that Taiwan is a destabilizing actor, or if Washington's "America First" policy damages Taiwan's economy, Beijing could seize the opportunity to sow division between Taiwan and the US.
Considering the changing situation in the Taiwan Strait, the report warned that the UK's own strategic warning period "has already begun," and the UK should "now" strengthen its capabilities to prepare actions at home and abroad for a range of potential changes in the Taiwan Strait. (Editor: Tien Jui-hua) 1150423
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The text, images, and audio-visuals on this website may not be reproduced, publicly broadcast, publicly transmitted, or utilized without authorization.