Gulf States Fear Regional Security Marginalization, Becoming 'Pawns' in US-Iran Talks

Central News Agency (Reuters, Dubai, April 20) Ahead of a new round of US-Iran negotiations, Gulf states are concerned that Washington, in exchange for global energy market stability, is shifting the focus of negotiations to 'managing passage through the Strait of Hormuz.' This, they fear, implicitly condones Tehran's control over the global oil lifeline, potentially sacrificing regional security. According to Reuters, officials and analysts expect that the next round of talks will no longer focus on restricting Iran's missile program or regional proxy organizations, but rather on uranium enrichment limits, and even implicitly accepting Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz. This could 'normalize' Iran's control over Middle Eastern energy supplies. Gulf state officials warn that the US choice to 'manage' rather than 'dismantle' Iran's leverage, while prioritizing global economic stability, is excluding Gulf states—who directly bear energy and security risks—from the decision-making circle. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev posted on social media platform X on the 8th, pointing out that the Strait of Hormuz is Iran's 'nuclear weapon,' with infinite potential. This statement positions the Strait of Hormuz as leverage, allowing Iran to raise costs for all parties and dictate the rules of the game without crossing the nuclear threshold. Several Iranian security officials privately agree with this view, stating that the Strait of Hormuz has been a deterrent tool planned for years, not a temporary contingency. A senior Iranian security source stated, 'Iran's playbook for blockading the Strait of Hormuz has been prepared for years, with every step planned. Today, it is one of Iran's most deterrent tools.' Analysts point out that what most frightens the Arab countries in the Gulf region is that despite repeated attacks on the region by Iranian missiles, drones, and proxies, the negotiations revolve almost entirely around the Strait issue due to its global economic impact, marginalizing the security concerns of Gulf states. Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Centre think tank, told Reuters, 'What is forming now is not a historic reconciliation, but a deliberate manipulation of a 'sustainable conflict.'' She added, 'Who is suffering from missiles and proxies? It is Israel, and it is the Gulf states. For us, a good deal must address missiles, proxies, and the Strait of Hormuz. But it seems they don't care about missiles or proxies.' Analysts warn that such negotiations cannot resolve tensions but merely control the situation within a manageable range. This outcome might be what Washington and Tehran desire, but it leaves Gulf states, who have lived under missile threats for years, bearing the risk of instability. Diplomats reveal that Gulf state officials have urged Washington not to lift sanctions entirely, advocating for phased testing of Iran's behavior. They emphasize that core threats remain unresolved, especially missiles capable of reaching Gulf capitals and armed proxies that are extensions of Iran's state power. The attitude of the entire Arab Gulf region towards Washington has now shifted from suppressed resentment to frustration and confusion over unilateral US decision-making. Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Gulf Research Center, stated, 'The US is an indispensable part of regional security... but that doesn't mean it can act unilaterally and push forward without regional involvement.' (Compiler: Chang Ming-hsuan) 1150421