Vietnam Risks Deepening Dependence on China; Scholar: 'Bamboo Diplomacy' Seems to Dismantle Safeguards

Vietnamese leader To Lam visited China on April 15th, meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping to strengthen political trust and strategic coordination. Some analyses suggest Vietnam and China are 'aligning,' or that To Lam is 'turning' towards Beijing, sparking discussions about the future direction of Vietnam-US-China relations. Alexander Vuving, an expert on Vietnam and Asian affairs at the 'Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies' (APCSS) in Hawaii, stated in a written interview with CNA on April 19th that Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam has set double-digit annual economic growth rates as an uncompromising goal. To achieve this, Vietnam needs to establish closer ties with all major economic powers in the world. The United States and China are the two largest economic powers, and even as US-China competition intensifies, Vietnam will strive to foster closer relations with both. He believes Vietnam will continue to deepen its relationship with China and the US and broadly utilize what Hanoi considers its 'safety net' – 'bamboo diplomacy.' This so-called 'bamboo diplomacy' was articulated by former Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, advocating for diplomatic practices that are like Vietnam's bamboo – 'strong roots, solid trunk, flexible branches.' The 'strong roots' signify firm principles, and 'flexible branches' denote flexible means, with the ultimate goal of ensuring that national and ethnic interests are served under any circumstances, at any time. To Lam's visit to China concluded with the signing of 32 cooperation agreements across various fields, focusing on railway connectivity, inter-party exchanges, infrastructure, and supply chain cooperation. When asked if Vietnam's deepening reliance on Beijing poses risks, Vuving replied to CNA, "Yes, I believe Vietnam is facing the risk of deeper dependence on Beijing." Vuving pointed out that for a small country to deepen its relationship with a major power, it must simultaneously establish protective mechanisms to avoid dangerous dependence. "However, as Vietnam strengthens its cooperation with China, it seems to be dismantling some of the guardrails established to protect its 'bamboo diplomacy.'" He cited the 5G agreement reached with Chinese companies as an example, which would give China a degree of control over Vietnam's cybersecurity. This 'fenceless bamboo' approach would negatively impact Vietnam's security and autonomy. Khang Vu, a visiting scholar in political science at Boston College, responded to CNA inquiries on April 19th, stating that Trump's actions create unpredictability, which is detrimental to economic development. "However, Vietnam is unwilling to jeopardize its relationship with the United States, as it needs access to the US market and American technology. Therefore, Vietnam will continue to seek a balance between the US and China." He holds a different view on the risk of relying on China. He believes that although Vietnam seeks to strengthen cooperation with China in energy, 5G infrastructure, and railway sectors, it still has alternative options if the risks outweigh the benefits, and can cooperate with other countries, thus lowering the risk of dependence. "Vietnam has these alternatives precisely because it pursues a non-aligned foreign policy, allowing Hanoi to continue accessing technology from Western countries, Japan, and South Korea. This also makes Vietnam more steadfast in its 'bamboo diplomacy.'" Some scholars and most Chinese perspectives believe Vietnam's scale is tipping towards China. Some analyses suggest that driven by infrastructure needs, economic interdependence, and domestic political changes, Hanoi appears to be leaning more firmly towards Beijing. Vuving analyzed for CNA, "I don't think Vietnam is leaning firmly towards China while trying to balance between Beijing and Washington. Vietnam is deepening its relationship with both China and the US and is wavering between the two. If you see Vietnam leaning towards China, it's because it just took a step towards the US; when you see Vietnam leaning towards China, you can expect it to lean towards the US in the future." He pointed out that Vietnam may temporarily lean more towards China or the US, but this is merely part of a subtle balancing strategy between the two major powers. Furthermore, while deepening ties with China and the US, Vietnam is also strengthening relations with other major powers, particularly Russia, Japan, and the European Union. In Khang Vu's view, although Vietnam appears to be leaning towards China in some aspects after To Lam's visit, it still adheres to its non-aligned foreign policy and maintains neutrality in its relations with major powers. He pointed out that in the joint statement between Vietnam and China, Vietnam reiterated that "relations with China are an objective need, a strategic choice, and a top priority of its independent, autonomous, multilateral, and diversified foreign policy." It also emphasized Vietnam's non-aligned and autonomous foreign principles. "To Lam's visit to China this time was to balance his February trip to the United States." (Edited by: Wei Shu) 2026-04-20