US-Iran War Fuels Inflation, Economists Warn of Lingering US Troubles
The US-Iran conflict has accelerated inflation in the United States, with economists warning that its effects will be prolonged, burdening the public until the November midterm elections. Soaring fuel prices are identified as a primary driver of rising costs.
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- 📰 Published: April 20, 2026 at 11:19
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Central News Agency
(Central News Agency, Washington, 19th, comprehensive foreign report) Since the outbreak of the US-Iran war in late February this year, it has triggered a wave of inflation in the United States. Economists warn that this price shock will continue to reverberate even after the war ends, placing a heavy burden on the American public until the November midterm elections.
The British "Financial Times" reported that International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated, "Inflation was on a good downward trend, but now it has reversed to some extent... US short-term inflation expectations have risen," and "even if the war ends tomorrow, the (global impact) will not disappear overnight."
Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for US-Israeli bombing operations has led to a global fuel shortage, causing oil prices to surge. Brent crude, a global benchmark, soared from approximately US$70 (about NT$2,260) per barrel at the start of the conflict to over US$110 (about NT$3,550) at its peak.
According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), US inflation rose to 3.3% in March, a two-year high, with rising oil prices being the main driver.
The IMF estimates US inflation for 2026 to be 3.2%, higher than the pre-war forecast of 2.5%; the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) significantly raised its forecast from 2.8% to 4.2%.
Joseph Gagnon, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, stated, "By the end of this year, prices will be significantly higher than they otherwise would have been."
Oil prices drove the first wave of consumer inflation. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), gasoline prices have surged from US$2.98 (about NT$96) per gallon at the start of the conflict to US$4.08 (about NT$132) on the 17th. As fuel costs continue to rise, secondary inflation will gradually be reflected in prices across other economic sectors.
Diesel, which is crucial for almost all sectors from agriculture to transportation, has risen from US$3.76 (about NT$121) per gallon to US$5.59 (about NT$180) since the war began, approaching the historical high of US$5.82 (about NT$188) set after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.
Many Americans are already feeling the pinch. Delores Smith, a 65-year-old store employee in Houston, Texas, said, "We are cutting back on a lot of expenses," and noted that many retired friends around her have had to find new jobs to make ends meet.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to a historic low in April due to pessimism over rising prices, showing that Americans expect prices to rise by 4.8% in the next year, up from 3.8% a month ago.
Doubled aviation fuel prices have prompted airlines to raise ticket prices, and a more than 30% increase in nitrogen fertilizer costs will affect grocery prices in the second half of the year.
Stew Leonard Jr., CEO of a local supermarket chain, said, "Fuel affects every part of the food business. We used to spend US$5,000 (about NT$161,500) to transport a truckload of fruits and vegetables from Florida; now it costs US$7,000 (about NT$226,100)."
For Trump, who campaigned on curbing inflation, persistent high inflation has evolved into a political crisis and will threaten the Republican Party's prospects in this year's midterm elections. (Compiler: Chang Ming-hsuan) 1150420
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(Central News Agency, Washington, 19th, comprehensive foreign report) Since the outbreak of the US-Iran war in late February this year, it has triggered a wave of inflation in the United States. Economists warn that this price shock will continue to reverberate even after the war ends, placing a heavy burden on the American public until the November midterm elections.
The British "Financial Times" reported that International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated, "Inflation was on a good downward trend, but now it has reversed to some extent... US short-term inflation expectations have risen," and "even if the war ends tomorrow, the (global impact) will not disappear overnight."
Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for US-Israeli bombing operations has led to a global fuel shortage, causing oil prices to surge. Brent crude, a global benchmark, soared from approximately US$70 (about NT$2,260) per barrel at the start of the conflict to over US$110 (about NT$3,550) at its peak.
According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), US inflation rose to 3.3% in March, a two-year high, with rising oil prices being the main driver.
The IMF estimates US inflation for 2026 to be 3.2%, higher than the pre-war forecast of 2.5%; the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) significantly raised its forecast from 2.8% to 4.2%.
Joseph Gagnon, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, stated, "By the end of this year, prices will be significantly higher than they otherwise would have been."
Oil prices drove the first wave of consumer inflation. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), gasoline prices have surged from US$2.98 (about NT$96) per gallon at the start of the conflict to US$4.08 (about NT$132) on the 17th. As fuel costs continue to rise, secondary inflation will gradually be reflected in prices across other economic sectors.
Diesel, which is crucial for almost all sectors from agriculture to transportation, has risen from US$3.76 (about NT$121) per gallon to US$5.59 (about NT$180) since the war began, approaching the historical high of US$5.82 (about NT$188) set after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.
Many Americans are already feeling the pinch. Delores Smith, a 65-year-old store employee in Houston, Texas, said, "We are cutting back on a lot of expenses," and noted that many retired friends around her have had to find new jobs to make ends meet.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to a historic low in April due to pessimism over rising prices, showing that Americans expect prices to rise by 4.8% in the next year, up from 3.8% a month ago.
Doubled aviation fuel prices have prompted airlines to raise ticket prices, and a more than 30% increase in nitrogen fertilizer costs will affect grocery prices in the second half of the year.
Stew Leonard Jr., CEO of a local supermarket chain, said, "Fuel affects every part of the food business. We used to spend US$5,000 (about NT$161,500) to transport a truckload of fruits and vegetables from Florida; now it costs US$7,000 (about NT$226,100)."
For Trump, who campaigned on curbing inflation, persistent high inflation has evolved into a political crisis and will threaten the Republican Party's prospects in this year's midterm elections. (Compiler: Chang Ming-hsuan) 1150420
Stand with the facts, your every sponsorship is the power to protect press freedom.
Download the Central News Agency "First-hand News" APP to stay updated with the latest news.
The text, images, and videos on this website may not be reproduced, publicly broadcast, publicly transmitted, or utilized without authorization.