German Scholar: China's Taiwan Invasion Would Have Profound Impact; Europe Should Form Alliance to Protect Taiwan's Freedom
German political scholar Andreas Fulda warns that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would cost the world over $10 trillion and have profound global economic and geopolitical impacts. He suggests Europe should form an alliance to help defend Taiwan's freedom, proving lessons learned from policy failures regarding Russia.
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- 📰 Published: April 20, 2026 at 18:45
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PARIS, April 20 (CNA) -- German political scholar Andreas Fulda has written an article stating that if China invades Taiwan, the world could lose over $10 trillion, with profound humanitarian and geopolitical consequences. He argues that Europe should help defend Taiwan to regain strategic autonomy and prove it has learned lessons from its failed policy towards Russia.
The article, published yesterday on the website of "Le Grand Continent," a French journal discussing geopolitical issues, is from Fulda's new book, "If China Attacks: A Scenario." It hypothetically explores a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as a warning.
Fulda writes that various think tanks often conduct scenario analyses, and economists attempt to quantify the potential costs of Chinese military action. The two most commonly proposed scenarios are a maritime blockade and an invasion, with shocking conclusions: "A maritime blockade of Taiwan could cause global losses of $2 to $5 trillion and trigger a severe economic recession in Germany and across Europe."
He points out that over one-fifth of the world's maritime cargo passes through the Taiwan Strait. A blockade would severely disrupt supply chains and lead to a sharp decline in semiconductor production. If Taiwan were annexed, the economic cost could exceed $10 trillion.
He believes that the US and Japan might take military action. However, if a war breaks out in East Asia, it could halt 85% of semiconductor production. Economic sanctions and financial market turmoil would escalate into a global crisis, making it hard to imagine free democracies escaping significant impact.
Fulda states that in his hypothetical scenario, Taiwan's annexation would have profound humanitarian and geopolitical consequences. Taiwanese people might suffer "re-education," similar to the Uyghurs' situation. In 2022, then-Chinese Ambassador to France Lu Shaye claimed that if Taiwan were unified, "re-education" would be implemented to make Taiwanese people "patriotic" again. This statement caused great shock in French political circles at the time.
Fulda notes that while German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul criticized China's support for Russia's war in 2025, German corporate investment in China increased by over 50% in the same year compared to the previous two years.
He argues that Germany is currently unable to change its policy towards China, which not only harms Germany but also poses a structural obstacle to the EU achieving strategic autonomy. As long as Germany "remains beholden to the individual economic interests of large corporations like Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and BASF (chemical group), the EU cannot convey a consistent message to Beijing."
Fulda suggests that for Europe, especially Germany, helping to defend Taiwan is a necessary action to regain strategic autonomy and prove lessons have been learned from the failed policy towards Russia. Germany and France could jointly establish a European volunteer alliance to help maintain Taiwan's freedom, strengthen East Asian stability, and ensure global peace and prosperity.
He concludes that "the European volunteer alliance for defending Taiwan should not just be a symbolic gesture" but should contribute to concrete actions promoting collective security. For instance, the Netherlands, Sweden, the Czech Republic, and Poland could leverage their technological expertise in areas such as semiconductors, maritime defense, and responding to hybrid threats.
Fulda finally states that this alliance would send a clear message to Beijing: Europe will collectively defend its interests in East Asia. Furthermore, it could reshape the EU's global image, as acting to defend Taiwan is not an act of aggression but an endeavor to safeguard world peace. (Editor: Chang Chih-hsuan) 1150420
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The article, published yesterday on the website of "Le Grand Continent," a French journal discussing geopolitical issues, is from Fulda's new book, "If China Attacks: A Scenario." It hypothetically explores a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as a warning.
Fulda writes that various think tanks often conduct scenario analyses, and economists attempt to quantify the potential costs of Chinese military action. The two most commonly proposed scenarios are a maritime blockade and an invasion, with shocking conclusions: "A maritime blockade of Taiwan could cause global losses of $2 to $5 trillion and trigger a severe economic recession in Germany and across Europe."
He points out that over one-fifth of the world's maritime cargo passes through the Taiwan Strait. A blockade would severely disrupt supply chains and lead to a sharp decline in semiconductor production. If Taiwan were annexed, the economic cost could exceed $10 trillion.
He believes that the US and Japan might take military action. However, if a war breaks out in East Asia, it could halt 85% of semiconductor production. Economic sanctions and financial market turmoil would escalate into a global crisis, making it hard to imagine free democracies escaping significant impact.
Fulda states that in his hypothetical scenario, Taiwan's annexation would have profound humanitarian and geopolitical consequences. Taiwanese people might suffer "re-education," similar to the Uyghurs' situation. In 2022, then-Chinese Ambassador to France Lu Shaye claimed that if Taiwan were unified, "re-education" would be implemented to make Taiwanese people "patriotic" again. This statement caused great shock in French political circles at the time.
Fulda notes that while German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul criticized China's support for Russia's war in 2025, German corporate investment in China increased by over 50% in the same year compared to the previous two years.
He argues that Germany is currently unable to change its policy towards China, which not only harms Germany but also poses a structural obstacle to the EU achieving strategic autonomy. As long as Germany "remains beholden to the individual economic interests of large corporations like Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and BASF (chemical group), the EU cannot convey a consistent message to Beijing."
Fulda suggests that for Europe, especially Germany, helping to defend Taiwan is a necessary action to regain strategic autonomy and prove lessons have been learned from the failed policy towards Russia. Germany and France could jointly establish a European volunteer alliance to help maintain Taiwan's freedom, strengthen East Asian stability, and ensure global peace and prosperity.
He concludes that "the European volunteer alliance for defending Taiwan should not just be a symbolic gesture" but should contribute to concrete actions promoting collective security. For instance, the Netherlands, Sweden, the Czech Republic, and Poland could leverage their technological expertise in areas such as semiconductors, maritime defense, and responding to hybrid threats.
Fulda finally states that this alliance would send a clear message to Beijing: Europe will collectively defend its interests in East Asia. Furthermore, it could reshape the EU's global image, as acting to defend Taiwan is not an act of aggression but an endeavor to safeguard world peace. (Editor: Chang Chih-hsuan) 1150420
Stand with the truth. Your sponsorship is the power to protect press freedom.
Download CNA's "One-Stop News" APP to get the latest news in real-time.
Text, images, and videos on this website may not be reproduced, broadcast, transmitted, or used without authorization.