Has China's Real Estate Market Recovered? Experts Remain Cautious
Experts hold differing views on whether China's real estate market has begun to recover. While transaction volumes for second-hand homes in first-tier cities have significantly increased, some experts believe it's too early to call a bottoming out and rebound, pointing to a 'weak recovery' and 'strong differentiation' in the market.
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- 📰 Published: April 19, 2026 at 16:18
- 🔍 Collected: April 19, 2026 at 16:31 (13 min after Published)
- 🤖 AI Analyzed: April 19, 2026 at 17:21 (50 min after Collected)
Central News Agency
(Central News Agency, Taipei, 19th) Opinions vary on whether China's current real estate market has begun to recover. Although transaction volumes for second-hand homes in first-tier cities have significantly increased, some experts believe it is "too early" for Shanghai and Shenzhen housing prices to bottom out and rebound. Others point out that China's real estate market is showing signs of "weak recovery" and "strong differentiation."
Latest statistics show that in March, second-hand home transaction volumes in first-tier cities generally doubled. Shanghai's second-hand home transactions reached 31,000 units for the entire month, a month-on-month increase of 178.8%, setting a new five-year high. Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw month-on-month increases of 144.6%, 141.4%, and 117.1%, respectively.
Furthermore, a recent report released by Goldman Sachs predicts that from the end of 2025 to the end of 2028, cumulative housing price increases in Shanghai and Shenzhen will reach 15%. It also suggests that the Shanghai and Shenzhen real estate markets are expected to bottom out first by the end of this year, with their recovery pace being six to 24 months ahead of other first-tier and second-tier cities.
Financial media outlet and WeChat official account "Wu Xiaobo Channel" today published an article quoting real estate expert Lu Jun, who stated that in the past, the industry considered 20,000 units sold per month to be good sales, but this was based on approximately 100,000 second-hand homes listed for sale. Now, the number of listed second-hand homes in Shanghai has risen to about 150,000 to 170,000 units, so there is still some distance from a true supply-demand imbalance and a hot market.
However, Lu Jun observed that nationwide purchasing power is concentrating in Shanghai. On one hand, policy relaxation has allowed some non-local first-time homebuyers to enter the Shanghai market; on the other hand, in the current relatively turbulent international environment, some high-net-worth individuals have begun to allocate funds to the Shanghai real estate market.
Zhang Bo, President of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, stated that whether the real estate market has entered a "small spring" generally depends on transaction volume, but price stability is also very important. If the increase in transaction volume is driven by significant price reductions, the sustainability of the "small spring" will be weak. Currently, behind the rebound in many real estate transaction volumes, prices are continuously falling, indicating a problem of "trading volume for price."
Although the latest data shows a month-on-month increase in housing prices in Shanghai and Shenzhen, similar but short-lived increases have occurred in the past two years. Zhang Bo believes it is still too early to judge a bottoming out and rebound in the Shanghai and Shenzhen housing markets.
Ms. Bai, co-founder of "Bai Pao Weng," a WeChat official account and opinion leader in the Shanghai real estate market, also stated that housing prices in first-tier cities and some strong second-tier cities are basically near the bottom, with core areas showing slight increases after stopping declines. However, third and fourth-tier cities, due to population outflow and high inventory pressure, are "still grinding at the bottom, not yet bottomed out." Wu Xiaobo believes that there is a high probability that China's real estate market will continue to fluctuate at the bottom this year, presenting a mixed picture of "weak recovery" and "strong differentiation." The future recovery of the real estate market will depend on these five cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu. (Edited by Chang Shu-ling / Chou Hui-ying) 1150419
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(Central News Agency, Taipei, 19th) Opinions vary on whether China's current real estate market has begun to recover. Although transaction volumes for second-hand homes in first-tier cities have significantly increased, some experts believe it is "too early" for Shanghai and Shenzhen housing prices to bottom out and rebound. Others point out that China's real estate market is showing signs of "weak recovery" and "strong differentiation."
Latest statistics show that in March, second-hand home transaction volumes in first-tier cities generally doubled. Shanghai's second-hand home transactions reached 31,000 units for the entire month, a month-on-month increase of 178.8%, setting a new five-year high. Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw month-on-month increases of 144.6%, 141.4%, and 117.1%, respectively.
Furthermore, a recent report released by Goldman Sachs predicts that from the end of 2025 to the end of 2028, cumulative housing price increases in Shanghai and Shenzhen will reach 15%. It also suggests that the Shanghai and Shenzhen real estate markets are expected to bottom out first by the end of this year, with their recovery pace being six to 24 months ahead of other first-tier and second-tier cities.
Financial media outlet and WeChat official account "Wu Xiaobo Channel" today published an article quoting real estate expert Lu Jun, who stated that in the past, the industry considered 20,000 units sold per month to be good sales, but this was based on approximately 100,000 second-hand homes listed for sale. Now, the number of listed second-hand homes in Shanghai has risen to about 150,000 to 170,000 units, so there is still some distance from a true supply-demand imbalance and a hot market.
However, Lu Jun observed that nationwide purchasing power is concentrating in Shanghai. On one hand, policy relaxation has allowed some non-local first-time homebuyers to enter the Shanghai market; on the other hand, in the current relatively turbulent international environment, some high-net-worth individuals have begun to allocate funds to the Shanghai real estate market.
Zhang Bo, President of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, stated that whether the real estate market has entered a "small spring" generally depends on transaction volume, but price stability is also very important. If the increase in transaction volume is driven by significant price reductions, the sustainability of the "small spring" will be weak. Currently, behind the rebound in many real estate transaction volumes, prices are continuously falling, indicating a problem of "trading volume for price."
Although the latest data shows a month-on-month increase in housing prices in Shanghai and Shenzhen, similar but short-lived increases have occurred in the past two years. Zhang Bo believes it is still too early to judge a bottoming out and rebound in the Shanghai and Shenzhen housing markets.
Ms. Bai, co-founder of "Bai Pao Weng," a WeChat official account and opinion leader in the Shanghai real estate market, also stated that housing prices in first-tier cities and some strong second-tier cities are basically near the bottom, with core areas showing slight increases after stopping declines. However, third and fourth-tier cities, due to population outflow and high inventory pressure, are "still grinding at the bottom, not yet bottomed out." Wu Xiaobo believes that there is a high probability that China's real estate market will continue to fluctuate at the bottom this year, presenting a mixed picture of "weak recovery" and "strong differentiation." The future recovery of the real estate market will depend on these five cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu. (Edited by Chang Shu-ling / Chou Hui-ying) 1150419
Choose to stand with facts, every sponsorship you make is a force to protect press freedom.
Download the Central News Agency "First-hand News" APP to stay updated with the latest news.
The text, images, and audio-visual content on this website may not be reproduced, publicly broadcast, publicly transmitted, or utilized without authorization.