Experts: US-Vietnam Deadlock Opens Door for China, Yet Vietnam Remains Wary of Dependence on Beijing
A joint statement reveals unprecedentedly close ties between China and Vietnam. Australian experts note US inaction has pushed Vietnam toward China, though Hanoi remains cautious about over-reliance and aims to diversify its strategic partnerships.
📋 Article Processing Timeline
- 📰 Published: April 18, 2026 at 16:04
- 🔍 Collected: April 18, 2026 at 16:31 (26 min after Published)
- 🤖 AI Analyzed: April 18, 2026 at 21:22 (4h 50m after Collected)
Central News
(Central News Agency, Hanoi, 18th, Tseng Ting-hsuan) China and Vietnam issued a joint statement yesterday, showcasing unprecedentedly close relations. A Vietnam expert in Australia told CNA that the deadlock in US-Vietnam relations has opened the door for China; facing pressure to meet economic growth targets, Vietnam has adopted a pragmatic approach, yet it remains wary of dependence on and debt to Beijing, mitigating the risk of being co-opted by China through a diversified strategy.
Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam paid a state visit to China from the 14th to the 17th. On the 17th, China and Vietnam released a joint statement to actively promote cooperation in fields such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and high-speed rail; Vietnam supports China's accession to the CPTPP based on meeting agreement standards and procedures. The joint statement shows that their relations and cooperation have reached an unprecedented level of closeness.
Carl Thayer, Emeritus Professor at the Australian Defence Force Academy at the University of New South Wales, analyzed in a written interview with CNA on the 18th that China is Vietnam's first comprehensive strategic partner and holds a special status.
However, the Vietnamese Communist Party also pointed out in its 2024 resolution guidelines that nations can both cooperate and compete, emphasizing the need to "abandon the rigid mechanical concept of viewing partners only as objects of cooperation and adversaries only as objects of isolation and struggle."
The resolution defined three types of military hostile forces: first, those launching wars of aggression; second, those inciting subversion or armed rebellion; and third, those infringing upon Vietnam's independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, or national interests. Although unnamed, "the United States likely falls into the second category, while China, due to its sovereignty claims in the South China Sea, falls into the third."
Some individuals, including Chinese scholar Lu Gang, believe that despite Vietnam's attempts to balance between Beijing and Washington, it has clearly leaned toward Beijing.
In response, Thayer, who is highly familiar with Vietnam's defense, diplomacy, and politics, and serves on the advisory board of the "Australia-Vietnam Leadership Dialogue," told CNA that given the above background, he believes Vietnam has not "decisively pivoted" to China and still pursues a foreign policy of "peace, independence, self-reliance, and multilateralization and diversification of relations."
He noted that from the joint statement issued by To Lam and CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping, it is evident that China is currently the only major power willing to strengthen cooperation with Vietnam. Russia is under sanctions, making it almost impossible for Vietnam to purchase weapons and military technology from it, which was the core of the Vietnam-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership. Sanctions by the US and Western countries have also hindered commercial ties between Vietnam and Russia.
On the other hand, the comprehensive strategic partnership between Vietnam and the US was only formally established in 2023. After US President Trump returned to the White House, Vietnam quickly began cooperating with him, initiated trade agreement negotiations, and promptly joined Trump's "Peace Council."
The US-Vietnam trade agreement is still under negotiation, with the sticking point being how to define the transshipment of Chinese goods. Additionally, issues such as Vietnam's "non-market economy" status, transshipment and trade fraud, and how to reduce Vietnam's growing trade surplus remain unresolved.
Thayer said, "It is precisely because the US is unwilling to advance relations with Vietnam that the door has been opened for China to elevate its ties with Vietnam."
Before the US Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariff policy unconstitutional, the US and Vietnam reached an agreement to lower it to 20%. Subsequently, Trump changed to a universal superimposed tariff of 15% on all imported goods. All these measures are full of uncertainty for Vietnam, which might be listed by the US as one of the "Dirty 15."
Besides Trump's ongoing worrying tariff policies, Thayer also pointed out that "Trump's war with Iran affects Vietnam's energy security and disrupts global supply chains." This also means that due to distracted US attention, focus on Vietnam has decreased.
He believes that Vietnam's policy of pragmatic diplomacy and strategic autonomy will not change, and it will continue to adhere to the "Four Noes" defense policy: no military alliances, no aligning with one country against another, no foreign military bases on Vietnamese soil or using its territory to fight other countries, and no using force or threatening to use force in international relations.
The China-Vietnam joint statement indicated that both sides agreed to "make railway cooperation a new highlight of strategic cooperation between the two countries," committing to "promote the interconnection of main railway lines connecting the two countries to Central Asia and Europe," and signed 32 agreements.
CNA asked whether there are risks in Hanoi deepening its dependence on Beijing as Vietnam strengthens cooperation with China in energy, 5G infrastructure, and railways.
In response, Thayer stated that Vietnam strives to become a developing country with modern industry and upper-middle-income status by 2030, and to achieve this goal, hopes to increase its annual GDP growth rate to 10%.
However, the adverse effects of the Iran war make this goal difficult to achieve. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Vietnam's economic growth rate to be revised down to between 5.6% and 7.1% this year.
Thayer said: "If Vietnam's economic growth rate fails to reach above 8%, it may fall into the middle-income trap. Given the urgency, Vietnam has adopted a pragmatic attitude in its cooperation with China."
Despite warnings from several European countries about security risks in cooperating with China on 5G infrastructure, Vietnam continues to push forward.
However, Thayer analyzed that dependence on China and debts still keep Vietnam vigilant. The joint statement reflects that "Vietnam hopes to create a level playing field by expanding access to the Chinese market and encouraging technology transfer."
He noted that Vietnam's concerns are reflected in discussions regarding Chinese investments in Vietnam's mining sector. The joint statement read, "Both sides agree to explore cooperation in critical minerals under the premise of complying with their respective laws, regulations, and industrial policies."
Thayer emphasized the context: Vietnam shares a border with China, is China's largest trading partner among ASEAN countries, and China's 4th largest trading partner overall. Currently, Vietnam faces a massive trade deficit with China, while the US is Vietnam's largest export market.
He believes, "Vietnam will actively promote international integration to reduce the risk of being co-opted by Chinese power," fully utilizing its comprehensive partnerships with developed economies like Japan, South Korea, the EU, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand, as well as the "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership" (RCEP).
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(Central News Agency, Hanoi, 18th, Tseng Ting-hsuan) China and Vietnam issued a joint statement yesterday, showcasing unprecedentedly close relations. A Vietnam expert in Australia told CNA that the deadlock in US-Vietnam relations has opened the door for China; facing pressure to meet economic growth targets, Vietnam has adopted a pragmatic approach, yet it remains wary of dependence on and debt to Beijing, mitigating the risk of being co-opted by China through a diversified strategy.
Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam paid a state visit to China from the 14th to the 17th. On the 17th, China and Vietnam released a joint statement to actively promote cooperation in fields such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and high-speed rail; Vietnam supports China's accession to the CPTPP based on meeting agreement standards and procedures. The joint statement shows that their relations and cooperation have reached an unprecedented level of closeness.
Carl Thayer, Emeritus Professor at the Australian Defence Force Academy at the University of New South Wales, analyzed in a written interview with CNA on the 18th that China is Vietnam's first comprehensive strategic partner and holds a special status.
However, the Vietnamese Communist Party also pointed out in its 2024 resolution guidelines that nations can both cooperate and compete, emphasizing the need to "abandon the rigid mechanical concept of viewing partners only as objects of cooperation and adversaries only as objects of isolation and struggle."
The resolution defined three types of military hostile forces: first, those launching wars of aggression; second, those inciting subversion or armed rebellion; and third, those infringing upon Vietnam's independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, or national interests. Although unnamed, "the United States likely falls into the second category, while China, due to its sovereignty claims in the South China Sea, falls into the third."
Some individuals, including Chinese scholar Lu Gang, believe that despite Vietnam's attempts to balance between Beijing and Washington, it has clearly leaned toward Beijing.
In response, Thayer, who is highly familiar with Vietnam's defense, diplomacy, and politics, and serves on the advisory board of the "Australia-Vietnam Leadership Dialogue," told CNA that given the above background, he believes Vietnam has not "decisively pivoted" to China and still pursues a foreign policy of "peace, independence, self-reliance, and multilateralization and diversification of relations."
He noted that from the joint statement issued by To Lam and CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping, it is evident that China is currently the only major power willing to strengthen cooperation with Vietnam. Russia is under sanctions, making it almost impossible for Vietnam to purchase weapons and military technology from it, which was the core of the Vietnam-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership. Sanctions by the US and Western countries have also hindered commercial ties between Vietnam and Russia.
On the other hand, the comprehensive strategic partnership between Vietnam and the US was only formally established in 2023. After US President Trump returned to the White House, Vietnam quickly began cooperating with him, initiated trade agreement negotiations, and promptly joined Trump's "Peace Council."
The US-Vietnam trade agreement is still under negotiation, with the sticking point being how to define the transshipment of Chinese goods. Additionally, issues such as Vietnam's "non-market economy" status, transshipment and trade fraud, and how to reduce Vietnam's growing trade surplus remain unresolved.
Thayer said, "It is precisely because the US is unwilling to advance relations with Vietnam that the door has been opened for China to elevate its ties with Vietnam."
Before the US Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariff policy unconstitutional, the US and Vietnam reached an agreement to lower it to 20%. Subsequently, Trump changed to a universal superimposed tariff of 15% on all imported goods. All these measures are full of uncertainty for Vietnam, which might be listed by the US as one of the "Dirty 15."
Besides Trump's ongoing worrying tariff policies, Thayer also pointed out that "Trump's war with Iran affects Vietnam's energy security and disrupts global supply chains." This also means that due to distracted US attention, focus on Vietnam has decreased.
He believes that Vietnam's policy of pragmatic diplomacy and strategic autonomy will not change, and it will continue to adhere to the "Four Noes" defense policy: no military alliances, no aligning with one country against another, no foreign military bases on Vietnamese soil or using its territory to fight other countries, and no using force or threatening to use force in international relations.
The China-Vietnam joint statement indicated that both sides agreed to "make railway cooperation a new highlight of strategic cooperation between the two countries," committing to "promote the interconnection of main railway lines connecting the two countries to Central Asia and Europe," and signed 32 agreements.
CNA asked whether there are risks in Hanoi deepening its dependence on Beijing as Vietnam strengthens cooperation with China in energy, 5G infrastructure, and railways.
In response, Thayer stated that Vietnam strives to become a developing country with modern industry and upper-middle-income status by 2030, and to achieve this goal, hopes to increase its annual GDP growth rate to 10%.
However, the adverse effects of the Iran war make this goal difficult to achieve. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Vietnam's economic growth rate to be revised down to between 5.6% and 7.1% this year.
Thayer said: "If Vietnam's economic growth rate fails to reach above 8%, it may fall into the middle-income trap. Given the urgency, Vietnam has adopted a pragmatic attitude in its cooperation with China."
Despite warnings from several European countries about security risks in cooperating with China on 5G infrastructure, Vietnam continues to push forward.
However, Thayer analyzed that dependence on China and debts still keep Vietnam vigilant. The joint statement reflects that "Vietnam hopes to create a level playing field by expanding access to the Chinese market and encouraging technology transfer."
He noted that Vietnam's concerns are reflected in discussions regarding Chinese investments in Vietnam's mining sector. The joint statement read, "Both sides agree to explore cooperation in critical minerals under the premise of complying with their respective laws, regulations, and industrial policies."
Thayer emphasized the context: Vietnam shares a border with China, is China's largest trading partner among ASEAN countries, and China's 4th largest trading partner overall. Currently, Vietnam faces a massive trade deficit with China, while the US is Vietnam's largest export market.
He believes, "Vietnam will actively promote international integration to reduce the risk of being co-opted by Chinese power," fully utilizing its comprehensive partnerships with developed economies like Japan, South Korea, the EU, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand, as well as the "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership" (RCEP).
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The text, images, and audio/video of this website may not be reproduced, broadcast, or publicly transmitted and utilized without authorization.