Italian Finance Minister: Continued Strait of Hormuz blockade will lead to European economic recession
Italy's Finance Minister warned that a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger an economic recession across Europe. He highlighted that the blockade would impact not only energy but also crucial raw materials like fertilizers and electronic components, causing widespread industrial repercussions. Although the European Commission currently deems a suspension of the "Stability and Growth Pact" unwarranted, Italy's Economy Minister fears a recession is inevitable if the crisis persists.
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- 📰 Published: April 13, 2026 at 08:17
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Uso told Italian media today at an event in Verona, northern Italy, that if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, or expands to a maritime blockade of the entire region, "the impact on the global, European, and Italian economies could be more severe than expected, possibly even leading to a recession across the entire European continent."
Uso suggested suspending the application of the EU's "Stability and Growth Pact" (SGP). The EU SGP restricts member states' annual budget deficits to no more than 3% of GDP and national debt to less than 60% of GDP. The EU previously suspended the SGP in 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic broke out, allowing member states to spend without limits to combat the pandemic.
Uso stated that the Strait of Hormuz blockade affects not only energy but also critical raw materials such as fertilizers and the electronics industry. For example, Qatar is one of the world's largest helium producers, and Italy primarily imports helium from Qatar.
Corriere della Sera reported that the EU, during 10 meetings, assessed that the conditions for suspending the "Stability and Growth Pact" have not yet been met. Balazs Ujvari, a spokesperson for economic affairs at the European Commission, stated that, in principle, the conditions for application are a severe economic recession in the Eurozone or the entire EU, and this condition has not been met yet.
Regarding the EU's continued reluctance to consider suspending the "Stability and Growth Pact," Italian Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti stated in an Italian TV interview on the 11th that the Italian government is well aware of how the European Commission reacts, taking action only in cases of severe economic recession. "But I am worried that if the energy and fuel crisis continues, a recession will come."
According to a research report by Oxford Economics in the UK at the end of March, if the Strait of Hormuz blockade lasts more than 6 months, most developed countries will face the risk of economic recession. Global oil supply will decrease by nearly 20 million barrels per day, and Brent crude prices could surge to around $190 per barrel (approximately 6030 NT dollars) by August, exceeding the historical high of $147 per barrel set in 2008.
The report quoted Oxford Economics' survey, stating that global inflation could reach 7.7%, close to the peak of 2022. However, unlike in 2022 when the global economy continued to grow despite inflation, this crisis is pushing the world towards a full-blown recession, with global GDP declining by mid-this year, and the United States and most major developed economies falling into recession. (Edited by Chen Hui-ping) 1150413
Uso suggested suspending the application of the EU's "Stability and Growth Pact" (SGP). The EU SGP restricts member states' annual budget deficits to no more than 3% of GDP and national debt to less than 60% of GDP. The EU previously suspended the SGP in 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic broke out, allowing member states to spend without limits to combat the pandemic.
Uso stated that the Strait of Hormuz blockade affects not only energy but also critical raw materials such as fertilizers and the electronics industry. For example, Qatar is one of the world's largest helium producers, and Italy primarily imports helium from Qatar.
Corriere della Sera reported that the EU, during 10 meetings, assessed that the conditions for suspending the "Stability and Growth Pact" have not yet been met. Balazs Ujvari, a spokesperson for economic affairs at the European Commission, stated that, in principle, the conditions for application are a severe economic recession in the Eurozone or the entire EU, and this condition has not been met yet.
Regarding the EU's continued reluctance to consider suspending the "Stability and Growth Pact," Italian Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti stated in an Italian TV interview on the 11th that the Italian government is well aware of how the European Commission reacts, taking action only in cases of severe economic recession. "But I am worried that if the energy and fuel crisis continues, a recession will come."
According to a research report by Oxford Economics in the UK at the end of March, if the Strait of Hormuz blockade lasts more than 6 months, most developed countries will face the risk of economic recession. Global oil supply will decrease by nearly 20 million barrels per day, and Brent crude prices could surge to around $190 per barrel (approximately 6030 NT dollars) by August, exceeding the historical high of $147 per barrel set in 2008.
The report quoted Oxford Economics' survey, stating that global inflation could reach 7.7%, close to the peak of 2022. However, unlike in 2022 when the global economy continued to grow despite inflation, this crisis is pushing the world towards a full-blown recession, with global GDP declining by mid-this year, and the United States and most major developed economies falling into recession. (Edited by Chen Hui-ping) 1150413