Two-Week US-Iran Ceasefire; BBC: Tactical Delay Far from True Peace

At 6:32 PM ET on the 7th, US President Donald Trump posted on his social media website that the US and Iran are 'very close' to reaching a 'clear' peace agreement and that he agreed to implement a two-week ceasefire so that both sides can continue negotiations.

BBC News reported that although the timing of the announcement was not exactly at the very last minute, it was quite close to the 8 PM ET deadline on the 7th set by Trump. Trump had previously demanded that Tehran reach an agreement and reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the deadline, or the US would launch a large-scale attack on Iran's energy and transportation infrastructure.

However, all this depends on Iran also pausing hostile actions and fully opening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. The Iranian regime claimed it would do so but emphasized that it still possesses 'sovereignty' over this important waterway.

The decision for a two-week ceasefire spares Trump from choosing between 'escalating conflict and fulfilling the threat of destroying civilization tonight' and 'retreating and damaging his own credibility.' However, for the US President, this may just be some temporary breathing space.

The US and Iran will negotiate for the next two weeks, temporarily buying time to strive for a long-term solution. This process is expected not to be smooth sailing.

It is unclear whether Trump's shocking threat prompted Iran to accept the ceasefire arrangement it had previously rejected. What is certain is that Trump has recently made a series of startling and provocative remarks, a style of expression unprecedented among past US presidents.

BBC reported that even if this two-week ceasefire can truly catalyze lasting peace, the war with Iran and Trump's recent speeches may have thoroughly changed the international community's perception of the US. The report said that this country, which once prided itself as a global stabilizing force, is now shaking the foundations of the international order; and a president who has always been happy to break norms and traditions in domestic politics is now bringing this style to the international stage.

Democrats yesterday condemned Trump's remarks, with some even calling for his removal. Within Trump's Republican Party, although many chose to support the president, the degree was significantly different compared to the near-unanimous support he received in the past. The White House may counter that this pressure worked. BBC analysis noted that for a president facing declining polls, rising internal criticism, and an economy weighed down by high energy prices, any option that offers a way out of this conflict might be a relief.

Trump claimed in his Truth Social post announcing the ceasefire that the US had 'reached or even exceeded' all military goals. Iran's military capabilities have been significantly weakened, and although the religious fundamentalist regime remains in power, several high-level leaders have died in the bombings. However, BBC pointed out that for now, many of the US goals' effectiveness remains unclear, not only is the whereabouts of the enriched uranium at the core of Iran's nuclear weapons program unknown, but Iran also retains influence over regional proxies such as the Houthi movement in Yemen. Furthermore, even if Iran really opened the Strait of Hormuz completely without requiring tolls or additional conditions, its ability to control this key strategic strait is clearer than ever before.

But for now, the agreement between the US and Iran for a two-week ceasefire remains a tactical political victory for Trump: he threw out a tough threat and got the desired result. But the ceasefire is only a temporary tactical delay, and there is still a distance from a permanent solution. BBC concluded that the long-term cost of Trump's words and deeds and the entire war has not yet been fully assessed.