Analysis: Sino-Japanese Relations Caught in a Vicious Cycle, but Risk of Accidental Conflict is Low
Following a Japanese destroyer's passage through the Taiwan Strait on the anniversary of the Treaty of Shimonoseki, China retaliated with military drills. However, experts assess the risk of actual conflict as low.
📋 Article Processing Timeline
- 📰 Published: April 19, 2026 at 11:00
- 🔍 Collected: April 19, 2026 at 12:00 (1h 0m after Published)
- 🤖 AI Analyzed: April 19, 2026 at 12:11 (11 min after Collected)
The 17th marked the 131st anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Shimonoseki. The Chinese Foreign Ministry accused Japan of deliberate provocation after a Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer entered the Taiwan Strait that day, lodging a strong protest with the Japanese government. Subsequently, the PLA's Eastern Theater Command officially announced the next day that it had organized naval and air forces to conduct joint combat readiness patrols in the East China Sea on the 18th.
The outside world views this move as Beijing's response to Japan's actions. Xu Chenghua, spokesperson for the PLA's Eastern Theater Command, stated that the theater command organized naval and air forces to carry out joint combat readiness patrols in relevant airspace and waters of the East China Sea that day. He claimed it was a normal arrangement within the annual plan, aimed at testing the troops' joint combat capabilities.
Xu Chenghua also proclaimed that the Eastern Theater Command troops will regularly organize relevant military operations based on security situation needs to safeguard China's national sovereignty, security, and regional peace and stability.
According to the official WeChat account of the PLA's Eastern Theater Command, the Japanese destroyer Ikazuchi transited the Taiwan Strait from 4:02 AM to 5:50 PM on the 17th, taking nearly 14 hours.
The Japanese government has not officially responded to the vessel's entry into the Taiwan Strait. Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao reported on the 18th, citing the Yomiuri Shimbun, that multiple sources related to the Japanese government confirmed the MSDF destroyer Ikazuchi indeed traversed the Taiwan Strait on the 17th. The destroyer then headed south towards the South China Sea to conduct joint military exercises with the US and the Philippines.
Sources said this move was intended to demonstrate Japan's firm commitment to the principle of freedom of navigation under international law, while simultaneously seeking dialogue with China to improve bilateral relations.
This is the first time an MSDF vessel has traversed the Taiwan Strait since Sanae Takaichi made her "A Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency" remarks, and the fourth time a JSDF vessel has passed through the strait, with previous occurrences in September 2024, February 2025, and June 2025.
The passage on the exact 131st anniversary of the Treaty of Shimonoseki sparked massive attention and criticism on the Chinese internet.
Li Mingjiang, an associate professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, told Lianhe Zaobao that while it cannot be verified whether Japan deliberately sent a warship on the anniversary, Beijing would perceive it as sensitive. Especially when there are negative reactions from the Chinese internet and public, the government and military "have to take some action."
However, Li believes there is no risk of the Sino-Japanese contradiction escalating into a direct conflict because the PLA will not block foreign warships passing through the Taiwan Strait; rather, they closely monitor and have concerns about the intent and timing of such passages.
He analyzed that the negative interactions between China and Japan once again show that bilateral relations are indeed "very difficult," and it will be hard to see any major positive shifts within the next year. (Editors: Zhou Hui-ying/Zhang Shu-ling) 1150419
The outside world views this move as Beijing's response to Japan's actions. Xu Chenghua, spokesperson for the PLA's Eastern Theater Command, stated that the theater command organized naval and air forces to carry out joint combat readiness patrols in relevant airspace and waters of the East China Sea that day. He claimed it was a normal arrangement within the annual plan, aimed at testing the troops' joint combat capabilities.
Xu Chenghua also proclaimed that the Eastern Theater Command troops will regularly organize relevant military operations based on security situation needs to safeguard China's national sovereignty, security, and regional peace and stability.
According to the official WeChat account of the PLA's Eastern Theater Command, the Japanese destroyer Ikazuchi transited the Taiwan Strait from 4:02 AM to 5:50 PM on the 17th, taking nearly 14 hours.
The Japanese government has not officially responded to the vessel's entry into the Taiwan Strait. Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao reported on the 18th, citing the Yomiuri Shimbun, that multiple sources related to the Japanese government confirmed the MSDF destroyer Ikazuchi indeed traversed the Taiwan Strait on the 17th. The destroyer then headed south towards the South China Sea to conduct joint military exercises with the US and the Philippines.
Sources said this move was intended to demonstrate Japan's firm commitment to the principle of freedom of navigation under international law, while simultaneously seeking dialogue with China to improve bilateral relations.
This is the first time an MSDF vessel has traversed the Taiwan Strait since Sanae Takaichi made her "A Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency" remarks, and the fourth time a JSDF vessel has passed through the strait, with previous occurrences in September 2024, February 2025, and June 2025.
The passage on the exact 131st anniversary of the Treaty of Shimonoseki sparked massive attention and criticism on the Chinese internet.
Li Mingjiang, an associate professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, told Lianhe Zaobao that while it cannot be verified whether Japan deliberately sent a warship on the anniversary, Beijing would perceive it as sensitive. Especially when there are negative reactions from the Chinese internet and public, the government and military "have to take some action."
However, Li believes there is no risk of the Sino-Japanese contradiction escalating into a direct conflict because the PLA will not block foreign warships passing through the Taiwan Strait; rather, they closely monitor and have concerns about the intent and timing of such passages.
He analyzed that the negative interactions between China and Japan once again show that bilateral relations are indeed "very difficult," and it will be hard to see any major positive shifts within the next year. (Editors: Zhou Hui-ying/Zhang Shu-ling) 1150419