Typhoon Bavi's Wind Field May Expand Further; CWA Not Ruling Out Issuing Warnings

(CNA, Taipei, July 4) The Central Weather Administration (CWA) stated that Typhoon Bavi has the potential to strengthen slightly over the next four days, with its storm radius possibly expanding to a maximum of 350 kilometers. It is forecast to be closest to Taiwan on July 10th and 11th, and the CWA has not ruled out issuing sea and land warnings. Northern Taiwan and Yilan are advised to prepare for heavy rain, with mountainous areas cautioned against localized torrential downpours.

CWA forecaster Cheng Chieh-jen told CNA that as of 2 PM today, the center of the severe typhoon Bavi was located approximately 3,360 kilometers east-southeast of Eluanbi. For the foreseeable future, it will move westward. Around July 8th and 9th, it is expected to begin a gradual northward turn. The path and angle of this turn will depend on the strength and distribution of the Pacific high-pressure system, and there remains some uncertainty. "There is a higher probability of it passing over the sea, but it is not impossible for it to make landfall," he said.

Cheng Chieh-jen pointed out that the environment will remain relatively conducive to Bavi's development over the next four days, with the potential for a slight increase in intensity. Its current storm radius is about 300 kilometers, and it is estimated to reach a maximum of 350 kilometers. However, after its northward turn, the environmental conditions will be less favorable than before, and its intensity and storm radius may gradually weaken or shrink. The extent of this weakening remains to be observed.

Regarding the weather for the coming week, Cheng Chieh-jen stated that until July 8th, the region will be influenced by the Pacific high-pressure system, with sunny to partly cloudy skies across the island. Only Taitung and the Hengchun Peninsula may experience isolated showers. Other areas will see afternoon thunderstorms, with varying ranges.

Cheng Chieh-jen noted that tomorrow, northern and central Taiwan, as well as other mountainous areas, will experience afternoon thunderstorms. Localized heavy rain is possible in the northern and central mountainous regions. He mentioned that on July 6th and 7th, the range of afternoon rain will shrink to the northern regions, Nantou, and other mountainous areas. On July 8th, afternoon thunderstorms will primarily affect mountainous areas across the island.

After July 9th, the weather is expected to change somewhat. Cheng Chieh-jen said that on the 9th, Typhoon Bavi will still be some distance away in the waters to the southeast. However, under the influence of its outer wind field, which will be from the northeast, sporadic brief showers or thunderstorms will begin in areas north of Taoyuan and in Yilan, with potentially more rain at night. Other regions will be partly cloudy to sunny, with localized afternoon showers or thunderstorms in southern Taiwan and other mountainous areas.

Cheng Chieh-jen indicated that July 10th and 11th are when Typhoon Bavi is forecast to be closest to Taiwan. Current predictions suggest that due to the typhoon or its outer circulation, the issuance of land or sea warnings is not ruled out. At that time, northern Taiwan and Yilan will experience showers or thunderstorms, possibly with localized heavy rain, especially in mountainous areas where torrential downpours are possible. Hualien and the central mountainous areas will have brief showers or thunderstorms, while other regions will experience localized brief showers or thunderstorms, with a chance of rain across the island.

Regarding temperatures, Cheng Chieh-jen stated that there will be little change before July 9th. Temperatures in the eastern half of the island will be around 31 to 33 degrees Celsius, and in the western half, around 32 to 35 degrees Celsius. Localized areas may experience high temperatures of around 36 degrees Celsius or higher, mainly in inland areas of central and southern Taiwan, the Taipei Basin, and the Hualien-Taitung Rift Valley. On the 10th and 11th, when Typhoon Bavi is closer, temperatures may drop slightly, but the extent of the decrease will depend on its distance from Taiwan. (Editor: Li Heng-shan) 1150704

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