Taiwan Bank: Gold Prices Fell Sharply in June, Expected to Reach $4,500 in July

Key News on the Iran-US War

(CNA) Taipei, July 3 - Taiwan Bank's Precious Metals Department released its international gold market monthly report on the 2nd, stating that gold prices weakened significantly in June, briefly falling below the $4,000 per ounce mark, with an overall decline of over 10%. Looking ahead to July, the trend will continue to be influenced by Middle East geopolitical developments, US economic data, and Federal Reserve policy expectations, with forecasts ranging from a low of $3,500 per ounce to a high of $4,500 per ounce.

Taiwan Bank indicated that gold prices were under significant pressure in June due to the interplay of escalating Middle East conflicts and expectations regarding US monetary policy. Early in the month, strong employment and high inflation data led to a cooling of market expectations for interest rate cuts, causing gold prices to fall rapidly from their highs. Although there was a subsequent rebound due to increased expectations of an Iran-US agreement, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish stance suppressed upward momentum. Coupled with the fluctuating Iran-US negotiations and a strengthening dollar, gold prices fluctuated and weakened to $4,000 per ounce, showing a volatile downward trend throughout the month.

From a technical perspective, Taiwan Bank explained that gold prices broke through various moving average supports in June, with short-to-medium term trends turning bearish. Major technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) were weak, indicating that bears still controlled the market. Although there was some buying interest that led to a rebound, the extent of the rebound was limited. Until gold prices effectively reclaim the June rebound high of approximately $4,300 per ounce, the short-term outlook remains a weak consolidation pattern. Further observation is needed to see if the area around $4,000 per ounce will stabilize or if the correction will continue.

Taiwan Bank stated that looking ahead to July, gold price trends will continue to be influenced by Middle East geopolitical developments, US economic data, and Federal Reserve policy expectations. If a ceasefire mechanism between Iran and the US is gradually implemented and stability is maintained in the Strait of Hormuz, a decline in oil prices would help ease inflationary pressures, potentially moderating market expectations for Fed rate hikes. This could weaken the upward momentum of the dollar index and US Treasury yields, which would be favorable for a technical rebound in gold prices.

However, Taiwan Bank cautioned that if negotiations fail or geopolitical conflicts escalate again, driving up oil prices and deepening inflation concerns, or if US employment and inflation data remain strong, reinforcing market expectations for Fed rate hikes, a stronger dollar would continue to exert pressure on gold prices. Forecasted short- and medium-term supports are $3,820, $3,650, and $3,500 per ounce, while resistance levels are at $4,180, $4,300, and $4,500 per ounce. (Editor: Yang Kai-hsiang) 1150703

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