Israel-Lebanon Accord Unlikely to End Conflict, Analysts Say It Deepens Stalemate

(CNA Beirut, June 30) -- A security agreement recently signed by Israel and Lebanon, which links the withdrawal of Israeli troops to the disarmament of Hezbollah, is unlikely to resolve the fundamental conflict between the two sides. Regional analysts and politicians say the condition is impossible to meet and may deepen the stalemate.

Reuters reported that Hezbollah has flatly refused to disarm, and the Lebanese government lacks the capacity to enforce it. Analysts point out that this effectively gives Israel political cover to maintain a military presence in southern Lebanon indefinitely.

Following Hezbollah's opening fire on Israel on March 2 of this year in solidarity with Tehran, the Israeli army launched an attack on Lebanon.

Analysts say the agreement has put the Lebanese authorities in a dilemma, as they can neither fulfill the obligations required by the agreement nor fully reclaim their sovereignty.

"This is not an agreement, but an imposed solution," said a high-ranking Lebanese political official who wished to remain anonymous.

He stated that the Lebanese army, in terms of organizational structure and equipment, is not sufficient to disarm Hezbollah. Expecting the army to do so ignores Hezbollah's deeply entrenched military strength and overlooks the fragile sectarian balance that Lebanon relies on for stability.

Political analysts point out that this asymmetry is an inherent problem in the design of the agreement, which places broad obligations on Lebanon without providing any reciprocal guarantees to ensure Israel's withdrawal. (Compiled by Chang Ming-hsuan) 1150630

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