June CCI Rises to 4-Month High, Scholar Warns of Fragile Stock Market Confidence Amid Volatility

(CNA) - The Research Center for Taiwan's Economic Development at National Central University announced today that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for June rose to 65.05 points, an increase of 2.97 points from the previous month, marking the best performance in four months. The stock market confidence indicator saw the largest increase. Scholars, however, cautioned that despite positive sentiment towards the stock market, recent heightened volatility has made this confidence extremely fragile, and a subsequent decline in the index is not out of the question.

The June CCI rebounded to 65.05 points, the highest level since March of this year. All six sub-indicators also saw increases: price levels, family economic status, domestic economic prospects, employment opportunities, timing for stock investment, and purchasing durable goods.

Wu Ta-jen, Executive Director of the Research Center for Taiwan's Economic Development, stated that the CCI has largely returned to pre-US-Iran war levels. The intermittent nature of the conflict in May and the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran in June suggest a move towards a ceasefire. Concurrently, international oil prices have fallen significantly to over $70 per barrel, which helps alleviate price pressures, leading to a noticeable rebound in price level confidence in June.

Wu added that although heavy rains in central and southern Taiwan in mid-June caused disaster and may lead to rising vegetable prices, the drop in oil prices should partially offset this impact.

Looking at the six sub-indicators of the CCI, the indicator with the largest increase was "Timing for Stock Investment in the Next Six Months," which rose by 7.84 points to 29.9 points in June. The second largest increase was for "Price Levels in the Next Six Months," which rose by 3.06 points to 35.83 points. The third to sixth largest increases were for "Purchasing Durable Goods in the Next Six Months," "Employment Opportunities in the Next Six Months," "Family Economic Status in the Next Six Months," and "Domestic Economic Prospects in the Next Six Months," respectively.

Wu believes that despite the stock market pullback last week, the index remains at historical highs, and investors have generally profited, bringing positive effects to family economies. As people around them profit from the stock market, the public perceives an economic recovery, and the stock market's prosperity played a key role in the overall rise of the CCI in June.

However, Yao Rui, a professor of economics at National Central University, warned that "stock market confidence is very fragile." She pointed out that the June CCI survey period did not include the period of drastic stock market fluctuations last week. If a survey were conducted now, the results might be entirely different. Furthermore, rising inflation in the United States cannot rule out the possibility of future interest rate hikes by the Fed. If market expectations for rate hikes continue to rise, leading to a correction in stock valuations, it will impact investor confidence, and the July CCI is likely to fall again.

Despite the comprehensive rebound in all six indicators, the overall confidence is "biased towards pessimism" as the absolute values of each index are below 100 points.

The June Consumer Confidence Index survey was organized by the Research Center for Taiwan's Economic Development at National Central University, with co-organization by the AI Incubation Center at Fu Jen Catholic University, Health Power Co., Ltd., and Taiwan Realty Group. The survey was conducted from June 18 to 21, 115 (2026), via telephone interviews using random digit dialing. A total of 3,341 individuals aged 20 and above in Taiwan were interviewed. With a 95% confidence level, the sampling error is plus or minus 2.0 percentage points.

National Central University also released the Taiwan Energy Security Index (TESI) today. In the first quarter of this year, the TESI was 69.1 points, a decrease of 1.3 points from the fourth quarter of last year, but an increase of 8.3 points compared to the same period last year.

Liang Chi-yuan, a researcher at the Research Center for Taiwan's Economic Development, believes that Taiwan still faces electricity shortages and the government should consider nuclear power, accelerate its restart, and plan its 2050 net-zero energy policy by referencing isolated grids in Japan and South Korea. (Editor: Lin Chia-hsien) 1150629

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