Capital Securities Raises 2026 Taiwan Listed Companies' Profit Growth Forecast to 47.5%, Targets TAIEX 50,000 Points

Taiwan's stock market continues to hit record highs. Today, Fan Zhenhong, CEO of Capital Securities Investment Trust, announced that due to stronger-than-expected AI momentum, the firm has raised its 2026 profit growth forecast for Taiwan's listed and OTC companies to 47.5%. It also expects 28% growth in 2027. With solid fundamentals, Capital forecasts the TAIEX index to trade between 43,000 and 53,000 points in the second half of 2026.

Capital Financial Group held its Q3 2026 Investment Outlook Conference today. Due to stronger-than-expected AI demand, the firm has upgraded its 2026 semiconductor industry growth forecast to 22.6%. In particular, demand for advanced processes driven by AI remains strong, with TSMC maintaining a clear leadership position.

Fan analyzed that the market generally expects TSMC's 2026 EPS to reach approximately NT$100, rising to NT$130 in 2027. Applying a reasonable 20x P/E ratio to TSMC's 2027 earnings estimate suggests significant upside potential. Fan believes TSMC could lead the TAIEX toward the 50,000-point milestone in the second half.

Fan also observed that AI's impact has broadened: when TSMC pauses, capital flows into passive components, financials, petrochemicals, and paper stocks, creating healthy rotation and strong market support.

With the upcoming U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, new Fed Chair Walsh's debut is highly anticipated. Fan believes Walsh, appointed by President Trump, is unlikely to deviate from Trump's pro-rate-cut stance, so the FOMC outcome is unlikely to surprise.

Additionally, with preliminary progress in U.S.-Iran talks, oil prices have dropped. The market expects May to be the peak of U.S. CPI, with inflation easing from June onward. Even if the Fed hikes rates, the room is limited. Fan sees no major negative signals for the TAIEX at present. (Editor: Zhang Junmao)