TrendForce: NOR Flash Prices Surge Over 100% in First Half, Further Gains Expected in Second Half

Market research firm TrendForce reports that due to capacity displacement effects, contract prices for code storage flash memory (NOR Flash) and single-level cell NAND Flash (SLC NAND Flash) cumulatively increased by over 100% in the first half of 2026. With suppliers still not planning large-scale capacity expansions, supply will remain tight in the second half, pushing prices even higher.

TrendForce highlights that NOR Flash’s core value lies in its instant execution capability and high stability. In automotive electronics, firmware capacity is rapidly growing due to upgrades in advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and smart cockpits, making high-density NOR Flash a critical component.

For edge AI devices, system program capacity—previously only tens of MB—has multiplied due to the need for local AI model computation, driving rapid demand growth for high-capacity NOR Flash above 256Mb. In industrial control, satellite communications, and aerospace equipment, NOR Flash’s high reliability remains irreplaceable, forming a stable and high-margin demand base.

SLC NAND Flash, with its extremely low error rates, long-term data retention, and wide-temperature operation, has become the only viable option for many high-reliability systems. Smart factories, robots, autonomous mobile equipment, and high-end network switches are increasingly adopting real-time inference functions, boosting demand for reliable storage.

Enterprise servers and data centers continue to use SLC NAND Flash for OS boot drives and high-frequency write buffers. In medical imaging, military electronics, and aerospace systems—where data errors are nearly intolerable—SLC NAND Flash holds an irreplaceable market position.

In the first half of 2026, memory demand from end products gradually recovered, while rapid growth in AI-related applications consumed limited market supply. NOR Flash saw extended lead times and allocation practices, with average contract price increases expected to reach 100%–120%, and higher-capacity products experiencing even steeper rises.

SLC NAND Flash supply has visibly contracted as several international manufacturers exited small-capacity and mature-process products. Industrial, automotive, and networking customers began building long-term safety inventories, triggering a clear panic-buying surge in Q2. First-half prices are projected to rise 130%–150% on average.

Looking ahead to the second half, TrendForce notes that major global suppliers are focusing on process scaling, yield improvements, and optimizing wafer-level output, with no plans for new capacity. This suggests long-term shortages in automotive and industrial markets, which rely heavily on long-lifecycle products.

High-capacity NOR Flash, supported by automotive electronics and edge AI demand, is expected to see further price increases of 60%–65% in the second half. Mid-to-low capacity NOR Flash may see slower price growth due to gradually increasing capacity from Chinese suppliers, with some products entering a high-level consolidation phase.

Although demand for most SLC NAND Flash products hasn’t significantly increased, supply sources continue to shrink. Price growth is expected to moderate in the second half of 2026 but still offers 70%–75% upside, with industrial and automotive-grade products potentially seeing even stronger gains.

To avoid price volatility disrupting partnerships or prompting customers to seek alternatives, major suppliers may adopt long-term supply contracts and selective order strategies. This implies that future market competition will center not just on price, but on supply stability and customer relationship management.