Japanese Scholar: China-Japan Relations Unlikely to Improve in Short Term, APEC to be Key Observation Point

Central News (Central News Reporter Dai Yazhen, Tokyo, June 16th) Professor Naho Eto of the Faculty of Law, Gakushuin University, stated today that the timing of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan may be affected by high-level interactions between the U.S. and China, but the likelihood of the U.S. fully accepting China's claims on Taiwan is low. On the other hand, this year's APEC summit in China will be an important indicator for observing the development of China-Japan relations. The Japan External Press Center (FPCJ), a public interest foundation, invited Professor Naho Eto to give a lecture titled 'China's Foreign Strategy and the Direction of China-Japan Relations' in the afternoon. Eto pointed out that in recent years, China has continuously described Japan's security and defense policy changes as 'new-type militarism,' and such rhetoric has become an important part of China's policy towards Japan. She believes that such statements are not just simple diplomatic criticism but are closely related to China's domestic politics and ideology. She stated that since 2013, China has gradually emphasized the establishment of its own international narrative, through concepts such as 'discourse power' and 'discourse system,' hoping to enhance its influence in the international community. In this context, 'new-type militarism' is not necessarily an objective description of Japan's current situation but is more like a narrative tool serving China's political and diplomatic needs. However, Eto also pointed out that when China continuously shapes Japan's image through such rhetoric, it may, in turn, limit its own diplomatic policy space. Because once the threat of Japan is continuously emphasized externally, in the future, if China wants to promote the improvement of relations with Japan, it will inevitably face pressure from domestic public opinion. On the other hand, China is also trying to input its own narrative on the Taiwan issue to the Trump administration in the United States, such as hoping that the U.S. side will accept that 'the Taiwan issue is a domestic issue of China.' But she believes that the U.S. government system may not accept such a viewpoint. Regarding arms sales to Taiwan, she personally judges that the United States may not announce new major arms sales cases before the U.S.-China summit in September this year, and it is even possible to postpone them until after the U.S. midterm elections. However, China's proposed requirements are unlikely to be fully accepted by the U.S. side. If arms sales to Taiwan are completely stopped, it will greatly change the power balance in the East Asian region, so the possibility of such a situation occurring is not high. However, the biggest feature of the Trump administration is still high unpredictability, and continuous observation is still needed. Regarding the prospects of China-Japan relations, which are of concern to the outside world, Eto believes that if the so-called improvement refers to the restoration of mutual trust or a significant improvement in bilateral relations, there are currently no clear signs. However, including multilateral occasions such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), they may become important opportunities for China and Japan to maintain communication. She stated that as the host country of APEC this year, China will surely hope that the summit will be successful, so the possibility of not inviting Japanese Prime Minister Kishi Nobuo is extremely low. She expects that China may even arrange high-level reception, and the outside world may have the opportunity to see the scene of interaction and handshake between Chinese and Japanese leaders in public. However, Eto pointed out that whether the two sides can hold a formal leaders' meeting on this occasion still has considerable uncertainty. While pursuing diplomatic achievements at the summit, China will also carefully evaluate how to handle relations with Japan to maximize China's diplomatic interests. Despite this, Eto believes that China-Japan relations are not entirely pessimistic. She pointed out that economic exchanges between the two sides are still very close, and many Japanese companies continue to cultivate the Chinese market, and cooperation between enterprises is also actively maintained. The more important task for both China and Japan at this stage is to establish an effective crisis management and communication mechanism, properly control friction in the fields of security and economy, and prevent disputes from escalating further. (Editor: Chen Chengong) 1150616