Poll: Support for Cross-Strait Political Negotiations Declines, Majority Favors Status Quo

(Taoyuan, June 15) — The Taoyuan City National Development Education Foundation today released a 10-year tracking public opinion survey indicating that while a majority of Taiwanese still support cross-strait political negotiations, approval has dropped from 77.7% in 2018 to 61.6% this year. Regarding desired negotiation outcomes, 44.3% of respondents over the past decade have consistently favored maintaining the status quo, compared to 27% who want Beijing to recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state and establish diplomatic relations, and 15.9% who support mutual non-aggression and recognition without formal ties. Only 3.2% support unification, while 4.1% back integration models such as the EU or Commonwealth.

The survey, jointly hosted by the Taoyuan City National Development Education Foundation and the National Taiwan University College of Social Sciences’ China Research Center, was presented today in Taipei. Originally conducted by NTU, the 2023 iteration was taken over by the Foundation and completed in early May. The survey has tracked public sentiment on cross-strait political negotiations since 2015.

Overall, 71.7% of respondents across the decade have supported political talks. Support peaked at 77.7% in 2018 but has since declined, reaching a record low of 61.6% in 2023. This suggests that while a majority still backs negotiations, skepticism is growing.

Yang Hsi-hui, project researcher at the Foundation, explained that 2018 marked the end of China’s so-called 'golden decade' of economic growth since 2008, when its comprehensive national power peaked, increasing Taiwanese willingness to engage in political dialogue. After 2018, however, China’s two major economic engines—demographic dividends and the real estate market—began to reverse. Combined with the U.S.-China trade war initiated under President Trump, China’s GDP growth target dropped from 'defend 6%' to 'defend 5%', and now stands at 4.5–5% for 2023. In contrast, Taiwan’s economic growth has risen steadily, potentially reaching double digits this year, reducing incentives for political negotiations with Beijing.

On which party or leader is most trusted to negotiate with Beijing, the survey shows the DPP outperforms the KMT and other parties, while former President Tsai Ing-wen is more trusted than Ma Ying-jeou and others. Trust in Tsai peaked in 2016 and 2020—her election and re-election years—exceeding 35%. In 2020, trust in the DPP reached an unprecedented 44%, indicating that winning the presidency is key to gaining public trust for cross-strait negotiations.

Yang noted that the near parity between 'Beijing recognizing Taiwan as a state' and 'maintaining the status quo' is significant and warrants serious attention from the international community and Beijing.

Tsai Ji-ting, Director of NTU’s China Research Center, interpreted that Taiwan and China envision different forms of political negotiation. Taiwan seeks recognition of its political subjectivity, while China insists on the 'One China' principle. While both the DPP and KMT may have some willingness to negotiate, taking the first step remains difficult. (Edited by Chiu Kuo-chiang) 1150615