Tong Jhen-Yuan: Peace in the Taiwan Strait is the cornerstone of global supply chains and digital economic stability

(Central News Agency reporter Wu Sheng-Hung, Singapore, 14th) The UK-based think tank IISS recently analyzed the significant global economic impact of a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Tong Jhen-Yuan, Taiwan's Representative to Singapore, stated today that international awareness of risks in the Taiwan Strait has expanded beyond traditional military conflict to include supply chains and other dimensions. He emphasized that peace in the Taiwan Strait serves not only regional interests in East Asia but is also a vital cornerstone for the stable operation of the global digital economy.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) released a report on May 10 titled 'The Impact of a Taiwan Strait Crisis or Conflict on Malaysia’s Economy: Analysis of Possible Scenarios.' The study finds that the economic impact of a Taiwan Strait crisis or conflict on regional economies such as Malaysia would far exceed the effects caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tong told the Central News Agency today that the research further indicates that if a conflict in the Taiwan Strait persists for one year, global trade volume could decrease by up to 50%. Southeast Asian nations, which are highly dependent on international shipping and supply chains, would be the first to suffer. Malaysia, in particular, could face economic losses as high as 41% of its GDP.

Tong stated that these figures clearly demonstrate that security in the Taiwan Strait concerns not only Taiwan, Japan, or China, but also global economic stability and people's well-being. From semiconductor chips to international shipping, from energy supply to digital communications, the global economy is already deeply intertwined with peace in the Taiwan Strait.

The 2026 Shangri-La Dialogue concluded at the end of May in Singapore. Tong pointed out that notably, international awareness of risks in the Taiwan Strait has gradually expanded from traditional military conflict to areas such as supply chains, energy transportation, and digital infrastructure. The security of undersea cables, in particular, emerged as a key topic at this year's conference.

'When countries begin to focus on undersea cables and underwater infrastructure, it is another way of expressing their concern for peace in the Taiwan Strait. The world is gradually recognizing that peace in the Taiwan Strait is not only in the interest of East Asia but also a crucial foundation for global supply chain security, the functioning of the digital economy, and the stability of the international order,' Tong said. Maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is not only about safeguarding regional security but also about protecting global prosperity and humanity's shared future.

Australia's Defense Minister Richard Marles warned during the Shangri-La Dialogue that undersea cables in the Baltic Sea and the Taiwan Strait have repeatedly been damaged, highlighting that these critical infrastructures are facing risks. Although the rules-based international order is imperfect, 'the task before us, including all of us and major powers, is to reshape rather than dismantle this order,' he said.

Tong stated that ASEAN countries have not lost interest in the situation in the Taiwan Strait. When asked how to avoid a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the ASEAN Secretary-General did not respond directly but emphasized the importance of regional dialogue and preventive diplomacy. These remarks indicate that despite different expressions due to diplomatic considerations, maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait has become an important consensus within the international community. (Edited by Chen Hui-Ping) 1150614