Wu Derong: Beware of Severe Weather in Southwest Taiwan on 14th and 15th

Meteorological expert Wu Derong stated that today, the stationary front remains offshore of northern Taiwan. Influenced by the southwest monsoon, strong convection may still occur in the afternoon. On the 14th and 15th, the front will shift slightly southward, posing a threat of severe weather in southwestern regions. From June 19 to 22, high pressure will strengthen, bringing hot and sunny summer-like conditions across Taiwan.

Wu Derong, adjunct associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Central University, shared the latest forecast in his column 'Leak the Heavens' Classroom' hosted by the Foundation for Meteorological Applications.

According to the latest European model (ECMWF) simulations, today the stationary front is located offshore of northern Taiwan. Weather conditions have slightly improved across regions with rising temperatures. However, due to the influence of the southwest monsoon, strong convective activity may still develop in the afternoon, bringing risks of lightning strikes, strong winds, and sudden heavy rainfall.

Wu pointed out that the latest model simulations indicate the stationary front will move slightly southward on the 14th and 15th. Combined with unstable southwest monsoon flows, the windward southwestern areas face a threat of severe weather. Other regions may also experience severe conditions and should remain vigilant.

From June 16 to 18, the stationary front will shift northward again. Daytime temperatures will be high when rain is not occurring. Wu noted that on the 16th and 17th, Taiwan remains within the southwest monsoon influence, making rainfall likely on the windward side and afternoon convection vigorous. By the 18th, the southwest monsoon will weaken, and convective intensity is expected to decline.

This year’s three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday runs from June 19 to 21. Wu stated that model simulations show the Pacific high pressure system will strengthen from June 19 to 22, resulting in hot and sunny conditions across Taiwan resembling midsummer. Isolated short-duration thunderstorms may occur in mountainous areas during afternoons.

Regarding potential typhoon development in mid-to-late June, Wu mentioned that tropical disturbances are showing signs of forming east of the Philippines starting June 17, increasing uncertainty in global model forecasts. Continued monitoring is advised.