Ministry of Finance: Export Boom Continues with 3 Highlights; September Poised to Set New Record of 35 Consecutive Months of Growth

(Central News Agency, reporter Lu Yan-ci, Taipei, June 9) Taiwan's export value in May continued to record the second-highest monthly figure ever. An official from the Ministry of Finance pointed out that three major highlights will be seen in the short term. Starting from the second quarter, a new chapter of quarterly export values exceeding $200 billion will begin. Exports in the first half of the year are certain to record the strongest growth in nearly 16 years. Furthermore, September is expected to break the longest upward cycle record in history, achieving 35 consecutive months of growth ("Lian 35 Hong").

The Ministry of Finance released preliminary statistics for customs import and export trade in May. May exports were $78.48 billion and imports were $60.57 billion, marking the second-highest monthly figure and a new record high, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 51.7% and 54.9%. Cumulative exports for the first five months reached $341.83 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48.7%, already surpassing the previous record for the first half of the year.

Tsai Mei-na, Director of the Department of Statistics at the Ministry of Finance, analyzed that as artificial intelligence (AI) develops towards agents, reasoning, and applications, the performance and usage of related hardware are both increasing. Coupled with Taiwan's strong manufacturing advantages in high-end chips and servers, and the effect of capacity expansion over the past period, Taiwan has been able to capture this massive AI business opportunity, bringing new growth dividends to overall exports.

Tsai pointed out that major Taiwanese technology companies generally hold a positive view of their business prospects. The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) has significantly raised its outlook for this year in its latest forecast. Therefore, it is expected that this wave of export prosperity will continue, and three highlights are anticipated in the short term.

Tsai stated that, firstly, starting from the second quarter of this year, a new chapter of "quarterly export values exceeding $200 billion" can officially begin and continue until the end of the year. Secondly, exports in the first half of this year are certain to record the strongest growth for the same period in nearly 16 years. The DGBAS's forecast of a 47.5% annual export growth rate is viewed with high confidence and cautious optimism.

Tsai said the third highlight is that by the end of the third quarter of this year, there is a very high probability of breaking the longest upward cycle in history, the record of 34 consecutive months of growth ("Lian 34 Hong") between November 1985 and August 1988. This is because the year-on-year export growth rate in May has already achieved 31 consecutive months of growth ("Lian 31 Hong"). August will tie the record of 34 consecutive months, and September is expected to officially break it.

Regarding export performance in June, Tsai explained that the DGBAS estimates the export value for the second quarter to be $222 billion. Subtracting the realized data for April and May, the DGBAS's forecast for June export value is $75.9 billion. Based on new data, the Department of Statistics estimates that the export value for June will range between $75.9 billion and $79.5 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate between 42% and 49%.

Regarding the full-year export performance, Tsai stated that the DGBAS has revised its forecast for the annual export growth rate up to 39.8%, the largest increase in nearly 50 years, and the total value is also expected to hit a new high. (Editor: Lin Shu-yuan) 1150609