IATA Forecast: Airline Passenger Numbers to Rise in 2026, Profits to Halve

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released its 2026 industry forecast on June 8. According to the forecast, passenger numbers for its 370 member airlines are expected to reach 5.1 billion, a 2.4% increase year-on-year. Passenger numbers for 2025 were estimated at 4.98 billion. In 2023, passenger numbers had already surpassed the 4 billion mark.

Despite this growth, the industry's net profit is projected to halve from $45 billion in 2025 to $23 billion in 2026. The net profit margin is also expected to fall from 4.2% to 2.0%. According to IATA's calculations, the estimated net profit per passenger is $4.5, half of the previous year's figure.

In a statement, IATA Director General Willie Walsh said, "Disruptions related to the Middle East war and rising fuel costs have worsened the industry's outlook." He added, "In this context, the figures reflect industry resilience. But it's less than the cost of a hot dog in most World Cup stadiums, leaving little buffer if other costs or taxes start to rise."

When asked by a reporter to compare the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021) with the Middle East war on the aviation industry, Walsh stated, "I don't see this as a crisis." He explained, "You are looking at an industry that is forecast to grow. Excluding the impact of the Middle East, our underlying growth rate would be 3.5%."

Regionally, the forecast indicates that airlines in the Middle East will incur losses in 2026.