Strong Afternoon Convection Expected; Expert Warns of Disastrous Rainfall from June 8

(CNA Reporter Wu Hsin-yun, Taipei, June 6) Weather expert Wu Der-romg stated that the low-pressure cloud system is gradually moving away today, but the atmosphere remains unstable, with strong convection developing in some areas in the afternoon. Starting on the 8th, the 5th wave of fronts in the plum rain season will arrive, marking the peak of the plum rain season. People should be vigilant against severe weather and the threat of disastrous rainfall.

Wu, an adjunct associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at National Central University, noted today in the 'Leaking Weather Secrets Classroom' column of the Meteorological Application Promotion Foundation that the latest European model simulations show the low-pressure cloud system moving away today and tomorrow. The atmosphere will be unstable with occasional localized short showers. Strong convection will develop in some areas in the afternoon, and people should be aware of accompanying 'severe weather,' including lightning strikes, strong winds, and sudden heavy rainfall.

Wu reminded the public that from the 8th to the 15th, the 5th stationary front of the plum rain season will wander north and south. As the plum rain front approaches next Monday, the strong convection will gradually expand. It will shift slightly southward on the 11th, with strong convection concentrated in central and southern Taiwan. On the 12th, it will move northward again, expanding the strong convection to the entire island. Combined with the prevailing 'southwest monsoon,' Taiwan will enter a typical 'peak plum rain season.'

Wu said that due to the highly unstable atmosphere, 'mesoscale systems' are easily triggered nearby, bringing severe weather and the threat of disastrous rainfall, including lightning strikes, strong winds, and sudden heavy rainfall. During this period, all regions should pay special attention to the special reports from the Central Weather Administration and make early preparations for disaster prevention.

As for how long the peak plum rain season will last, Wu mentioned that the latest European and American simulations indicate it will continue until at least the 15th. Although patterns differ slightly, the end is not yet in sight. Simulations beyond 10 days have high uncertainty and lower reliability, so one should not jump to conclusions about how long it will last and should continue observing. (Editor: Lee Shu-hua)