Scholar: Taiwan at Core of US-China Relations, Trump-Xi Summit Only a Tactical Ease

(Central News Agency, Tokyo, 4th, Combined Foreign Reports) Diana Choyleva, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) Center for China Analysis, stated that while US-China relations have recently shown signs of easing, the Taiwan issue remains a core challenge for bilateral ties, suggesting the détente is tactical and unlikely to be sustained.

Choyleva, who is also the chief economist at Enodo Economics in London, wrote in Nikkei Asia that the economic and trade consensus reached during US President Donald Trump's May visit to China and his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, while helpful in reducing short-term tensions, failed to eliminate the structural differences in security and strategic areas between the two countries.

In her article, Choyleva noted that during the Trump-Xi summit, China committed to purchasing at least $17 billion worth of US agricultural products and 200 Boeing aircraft, and agreed to establish a trade and investment dialogue mechanism with the US to implement existing economic and trade agreements. However, she believes these measures were largely within market expectations, do not represent a major breakthrough, and constitute only a limited positive signal.

The article pointed out that structural contradictions between the US and China remain unresolved, tech decoupling and export controls continue, and Beijing is persistently building a system approaching a "fortress economy" to reduce reliance on external supply chains. The Trump-Xi summit in May appeared more like a tactical pause than a strategic adjustment.

The market view is that neither Washington nor Beijing wants a crisis, and both have ample reasons to support stable relations at least until 2027, entering a more stable phase to avoid escalating confrontation. Choyleva suggested this view might be correct, but cautioned that "stable" and "sustained" are not the same concept, with Taiwan being a key factor.

If Trump were to soften support for Taiwan, Beijing would see this as effective pressure and become more assertive. If Trump continues to promote arms sales to Taiwan, China is likely to respond, and the current easing would inevitably change. Either outcome highlights the fragility of the US-China détente.

Choyleva also noted that, based on reports from the time of the Trump-Xi summit, Xi Jinping equated Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, calling both a threat to regional peace. This rare expression suggests Beijing may be beginning to view Taiwan and Japan as part of the same problem.

Additionally, a Bloomberg News report indicated that Japan and the Philippines last week agreed to upgrade bilateral relations and initiate a series of defense talks, including signing a military intelligence-sharing agreement. This highlights that, under Trump's "America First" policy and demands for allies to bear more responsibility, regional allies need to become more self-reliant.

Raymond Powell, a retired US Air Force Colonel and founder of the maritime monitoring organization SeaLight Foundation, stated that Japan and the Philippines are accelerating the building of a broader partner network. "If Beijing intends to weaponize markets and maritime space, neighboring countries must weave a denser and more resilient network to respond," he said.

Yoichiro Sato, a professor of international relations at Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University, said the main reason for the accelerated and deepened military cooperation between Japan and the Philippines is that the US can no longer provide sufficient and credible deterrence in East Asia. (Editors: Liu Wenyu, Zhang Mingxuan) 1150604