Goldman Sachs Predicts Spain as World Cup Favorite with 26% Chance of Winning
Goldman Sachs Group has analyzed the 2026 FIFA World Cup, predicting Spain as the top contender with a 26% chance of winning, followed by France at 19% and Argentina at 14%.
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- 📰 Published: June 4, 2026 at 13:18
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(Central News Agency, New York, June 3, Combined Foreign Reports) The 2026 FIFA World Cup will kick off on June 11. Goldman Sachs Group has conducted a data analysis of the tournament, identifying Spain as the team most likely to win the championship.
The analysis incorporates historical match data, team rankings, scoring ability, and geographical factors, using the Elo rating system. The Elo rating is a system for measuring the competitive level of players or teams in sports, originally designed to assess strength in chess.
The analysis shows Spain has a 26% chance of winning the World Cup, the highest among all teams. France has a 19% chance of securing its third World Cup title, while Argentina has a 14% chance of becoming the first team since Brazil in 1962 to win back-to-back World Cups.
Brazil's probability is 8%, while England and the Netherlands each have a 5% chance.
The Goldman Sachs model predicts a European clash between France and Spain in the semifinals, and a South American rivalry between Argentina and Brazil. It forecasts Spain will defeat Argentina in the final on July 19 to lift the trophy.
The model incorporates data from approximately 20,000 official international matches since 1978, as well as recent team form.
The analysis notes that teams with prolific scorers and strong recent performances tend to outperform expectations. Conversely, historical trends show that defending champions often struggle, a factor that lowers Argentina's probability of winning.
Jan Hatzius, head of the Goldman Sachs analysis team, wrote in the report: "Our forecast aligns with historical patterns, meaning that when the previous World Cup was won by a South American team, the champion almost always returns to a European team."
The report notes that despite England's high Elo rating, its model rating was downgraded due to its historical tendency to underperform in the World Cup and potential geographical disadvantages, including the possibility of playing in high-altitude Mexico City.
However, Goldman Sachs acknowledges that its predictive model cannot account for certain intangible factors, such as player health. For example, Spanish starlet Lamine Yamal is reportedly injured before the tournament and will miss the early stages, a situation difficult to reflect in the model's predictions. (Translated by Chen Yiwei) 1150604
The analysis incorporates historical match data, team rankings, scoring ability, and geographical factors, using the Elo rating system. The Elo rating is a system for measuring the competitive level of players or teams in sports, originally designed to assess strength in chess.
The analysis shows Spain has a 26% chance of winning the World Cup, the highest among all teams. France has a 19% chance of securing its third World Cup title, while Argentina has a 14% chance of becoming the first team since Brazil in 1962 to win back-to-back World Cups.
Brazil's probability is 8%, while England and the Netherlands each have a 5% chance.
The Goldman Sachs model predicts a European clash between France and Spain in the semifinals, and a South American rivalry between Argentina and Brazil. It forecasts Spain will defeat Argentina in the final on July 19 to lift the trophy.
The model incorporates data from approximately 20,000 official international matches since 1978, as well as recent team form.
The analysis notes that teams with prolific scorers and strong recent performances tend to outperform expectations. Conversely, historical trends show that defending champions often struggle, a factor that lowers Argentina's probability of winning.
Jan Hatzius, head of the Goldman Sachs analysis team, wrote in the report: "Our forecast aligns with historical patterns, meaning that when the previous World Cup was won by a South American team, the champion almost always returns to a European team."
The report notes that despite England's high Elo rating, its model rating was downgraded due to its historical tendency to underperform in the World Cup and potential geographical disadvantages, including the possibility of playing in high-altitude Mexico City.
However, Goldman Sachs acknowledges that its predictive model cannot account for certain intangible factors, such as player health. For example, Spanish starlet Lamine Yamal is reportedly injured before the tournament and will miss the early stages, a situation difficult to reflect in the model's predictions. (Translated by Chen Yiwei) 1150604