Taiwan's 2025 Carbon Reduction Estimated at 9%, Falling Short of 10% Target: Minister

The Ministry of Environment (MOENV) on Wednesday released Taiwan's overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions data for 2024, showing a 6.59% reduction from the 2005 baseline year and a 1.92% decrease from 2023. Minister of Environment Peng Chi-ming estimated that the reduction in 2025 would be approximately 9% from the baseline, falling short of the original target of 10%, describing it as "close but not achievable."

The MOENV published the "2026 National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report," which revealed net emissions of approximately 251.404 million metric tons in 2024. This represents a 6.59% decrease from the baseline year (2005) and a 1.92% decrease from 2023.

The ministry noted that according to the 2025 UN Environment Programme (UNEP) "Emissions Gap Report," global emissions in 2024 increased by 2.3% compared to 2023. In contrast, Taiwan's emissions decreased year-on-year, indicating that recent reduction measures are gradually showing results.

Furthermore, according to the international "2025 Global Carbon Budget" data, 35 economies worldwide are showing a trend of GDP growth coupled with a decline in fossil fuel emissions, and Taiwan is among them.

According to the report, among the four major sectors, the energy sector had the highest emissions in 2024, followed by industrial processes and product use, agriculture, and waste. Notably, emissions from the energy sector in 2024 decreased by 2.07% from 2023 and 1.07% from 2005, marking the first time since the inventory was implemented that emissions fell below the baseline year level.

Tsai Ling-yi, Director-General of the Climate Change Administration under the MOENV, explained that the methodology for compiling the national emissions inventory aligns with the guidelines of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The four major sectors are Energy, Industrial Processes and Product Use, Agriculture, and Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). The energy sector includes all energy use from manufacturing, commercial, and residential sectors.

Minister Peng stated that according to the national GHG reduction target, the goal is to reduce emissions by 28% plus or minus 2 percentage points from the 2005 baseline by 2030. He estimated a reduction of about 9% for 2025, which is slightly close to the initial plan of a 10% reduction but will not be met.

"There are still some uncertainties," Peng explained. He pointed to the first-quarter economic growth rate of 13.6% this year, a figure rarely seen internationally. A strong economy means businesses have more resources and are more serious about reducing carbon, as evidenced by companies paying their carbon fees as required.

However, Peng noted that when business is good, factory expansion and increased production could lead to higher electricity consumption. "So between the pluses and minuses, what the final number will be is really hard to say right now," he said.

Peng emphasized that achieving the 2030 target of a 26% to 30% reduction means Taiwan must complete nearly a 20% reduction within the next five years. This is an extremely challenging task, requiring an average annual reduction of about 4%. However, Peng also noted that over the past few years, including the preliminary estimate for 2025, Taiwan has been steadily reducing carbon emissions, which is different from the global trend of continuously rising emissions.