Scholar: Trump's Taiwan policy adopts 'strategic ambiguity' to deter PLA invasion

Wu Yu-shan, a Distinguished Research Fellow at the Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica, stated during a lecture at National Taiwan University today that the Trump administration's policy toward Taiwan maintains a consistent stance of 'strategic ambiguity.' The goal is to achieve 'dual deterrence': deterring the People's Liberation Army (PLA) from invading Taiwan, while also preventing Taiwan from moving toward independence and dragging the US into a conflict. Wu emphasized that strategic ambiguity is a traditional US stance, noting that Trump has famously said, 'I am the only one who knows the answer' regarding whether the US would defend Taiwan. Compared to the Biden administration's shift toward 'strategic clarity,' the current US position is returning to its traditional roots. Wu analyzed the risk assessment of starting a war, noting that if an actor fears the status quo will deteriorate or believes the opponent's future denial capabilities will increase, they may feel compelled to act now. He cited Putin's invasion of Ukraine as an example of acting to prevent perceived threats from worsening. Regarding the Taiwan Strait, he suggested that if the PLA is optimistic about future military developments and the likelihood of US intervention, they are less likely to attack now. However, he emphasized that Taiwan must continue to strengthen its capabilities.