Good Morning World: Trade, Investment, and Consumption Booming; Economic Growth Forecast at 9.64%, a 16-Year High

Benefiting from the explosive growth of global AI business, and despite a high base from last year's 8.76% economic growth, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) of the Executive Yuan has significantly revised its economic growth forecast for this year to 9.64%, setting a 16-year record. Exports, imports, private consumption, and private investment have all been revised upward. Commodity exports are projected to reach $894.5 billion this year, an upward revision of over $100 billion, also setting a new record. The annual growth rate for commodity exports is 39.77%, the highest in 50 years. Tsai Yu-tai, Director of the Department of Overall Statistics at the DGBAS, explained that the continued expansion of domestic production capacity has created high-speed growth in export energy, which in turn has driven related investments. Furthermore, strong corporate profits are conducive to wage increases and higher dividend payouts, promoting a recovery in consumption momentum.

Following the semi-annual adjustment by index provider MSCI, Taiwan's weighting in the MSCI World Index, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, and MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index has been increased. On the 29th, the Taiwan stock market saw electronic, financial, and traditional industry stocks rise together. The main index surged 1,096.5 points, with the listed closing index at 44,732.94 points, electronic, financial, and semiconductor closing indices, trading value of NT$1.8164 trillion, and the OTC closing index at 443.64 points all hitting historical highs. Foreign investors bought a net NT$80.355 billion, the third-largest amount in history, with the most buying in Innolux at 163,249 lots. TSMC and stock king ASPEED hit historical highs, while AI-related stocks like Foxconn and Quanta also strengthened.

The Ministry of Labor released the latest occupational wage survey statistics, showing that pilots ranked first in both monthly and annual salary, with a monthly salary of NT$298,000 and an annual salary of NT$3.931 million. This was followed by actuaries at NT$203,000 per month and NT$3.662 million per year, and doctors at NT$180,000 per month and NT$2.497 million per year. Insurance agents, funeral services, and beauty/hairdressing industries saw the highest growth in monthly salaries, all with annual growth rates exceeding 7%. At the same time, some industries saw a decrease in annual growth rates for monthly salaries, with real estate agents and securities/financial traders seeing negative growth of 8.9% and 5.2% respectively.

The Central Weather Administration stated that as the front moves away this weekend, moisture will decrease, but southern and central regions should still watch for afternoon thunderstorms. From June 1st, affected by the outer circulation of Typhoon Chan-hom, there will be brief rain in windward areas in the north and northeast. Regarding temperature, from the 30th to June 2nd, the environment will be dominated by northerly winds, with highs between 28 and 33 degrees Celsius. Weather Administration Director Lu Kuo-chen reported to Premier Cho Jung-tai that cumulative rainfall in Taiwan so far this year is 60% of the historical average for the same period, and it is estimated that there will be a week-long rainy period around June 7th, which is expected to bring rain to the central and southern regions to relieve the drought.

Czech Senate President Miloš Vystrčil will visit Taiwan again in early June. Facing potential diplomatic pressure from China, Vystrčil stated that the Czech Republic will not yield and that visiting Taiwan is in the national interest of both sides. He pointed out that since his first visit in 2020, bilateral trade and investment have grown significantly, and cooperation in high-tech industrial chains has continued to deepen. Vystrčil's itinerary includes meetings with the President, Vice President, and cabinet ministers, as well as unveiling the "Havel Bench," a "Czech Language Classroom," and the Czech Pavilion at the international startup exhibition InnoVEX, to promote exchanges and cooperation in political, economic, and cultural fields.

The Legislative Yuan voted on the 29th to pass the draft amendment to the Air Pollution Control Act proposed by the KMT and TPP caucuses and legislator Lo Ting-wei, sending it to the second reading. The Ministry of Economic Affairs stated that as AI industry demand for electricity grows, restricting energy supply resilience through legal amendments would impact the operational stability of about 8,000 companies across Taiwan. The amendment involves all energy and industrial emission regulations, and the hasty legislation without fully addressing concerns could impact industries such as semiconductors, steel, petrochemicals, textiles, power plants, hotels, and hospitals that hold fixed pollution source operating permits. The Industrial Zone Manufacturers Association and the Chinese National Federation of Industries reiterated that the amendment has a significant impact on the industry and called for maintaining the current system and strengthening communication with the industry.

The Legislative Yuan passed the "Special Budget for National Security Defense and Asymmetric Combat Capability Enhancement Plan for Fiscal Year 2026" in its third reading without objection. The budget amount was reduced by only NT$2 million in operating expenses, with the rest remaining as planned, totaling NT$8.810571 billion, all funded by debt issuance in accordance with the National Defense Special Act. President Lai Ching-te visited the 205th Arsenal of the Armaments Bureau in Kaohsiung on the 29th and stated that the reduced version of the national defense special budget passed by the Legislative Yuan prevents the planned addition of 6 production lines for ammunition and explosives, affecting national defense autonomy and the military buildup schedule. The government will study ways to respond through special acts or supplementary budgets.

Reuters disclosed satellite imagery showing that China is building more than 80 launch platforms, bunkers, and communication nodes around nuclear missile silos in desert areas, highlighting the intensifying nuclear arms race between the US and China as issues such as Taiwan's sovereignty heat up. Security scholars believe that this facility seems to ensure that even if the US launches a first strike, China's nuclear arsenal will not be completely paralyzed and will retain counterattack capabilities.

The US and Iran revealed that they are close to reaching a transitional memorandum of understanding as an initial framework for a final, lasting agreement, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and establishing an Iran reconstruction fund, with nuclear issues left for subsequent negotiations. Informed diplomats revealed that even if both sides reach an agreement, the process of clearing mines and reopening the strait could take weeks. Media also revealed that US negotiators have briefed President Trump on the details of the finalized memorandum, but Trump has not yet given the green light; a US official said, "The President told the mediators that he wants a few more days to consider."

The Australian Copi mineral sands project has received government approval for operation. Experts point out that because this project has Japanese investment, it not only demonstrates the vision of combining Australian resources with Japanese technology but also marks an important step for partner countries to take concrete action to break China's monopoly on the rare earth industry. The project is expected to process 28 million tons of minerals over 18 years and produce up to 400,000 tons of critical minerals, including titanium minerals, ilmenite, rutile, zircon, and monazite rare earth concentrates, which are materials for clean energy, defense, telecommunications, and medical equipment industries.