Australian Think Tank: Beijing's Post-Unification Governance Plan for Taiwan Includes Routine Surveillance
The Lowy Institute released a report analyzing China's governance plans for Taiwan post-annexation. It concludes that Beijing recognizes governance is more challenging than seizure, planning for total social control including forced loyalty, internet surveillance, and historical revisionism.
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- 📰 Published: May 27, 2026 at 18:01
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CNA, Taipei, May 27. The Lowy Institute in Australia recently published a report titled "After Annexation: How China Plans to Run Taiwan." By analyzing Chinese academic and policy literature from 2019 to 2025, the report concludes that Beijing has realized the most difficult problem is not seizing Taiwan, but governing it.
The report notes that Beijing's strategic framework has shifted from emphasizing "peaceful unification" to long-term "total political integration." Due to Taiwan's competitive elections, active civil society, and security ties with the U.S., Beijing classifies Taiwan as a "high-risk governance zone."
Regarding governance methods, Chinese scholars advocate for a "security first, normalization later" approach. Public servants, lawyers, journalists, and business leaders would be required to pledge loyalty to the CCP or face unemployment or imprisonment. Digital infrastructure would be integrated into China's regulatory framework, with strict internet censorship and real-name registration.
In education, the plan involves rewriting history and purging "pro-independence" elements. Regarding the semiconductor industry, the report suggests Beijing would likely use export controls and supply chain restrictions to leverage companies like TSMC as strategic assets against the U.S., rather than direct nationalization. The report concludes that such high-pressure tactics risk "governance fatigue" and a loss of public trust.
The report notes that Beijing's strategic framework has shifted from emphasizing "peaceful unification" to long-term "total political integration." Due to Taiwan's competitive elections, active civil society, and security ties with the U.S., Beijing classifies Taiwan as a "high-risk governance zone."
Regarding governance methods, Chinese scholars advocate for a "security first, normalization later" approach. Public servants, lawyers, journalists, and business leaders would be required to pledge loyalty to the CCP or face unemployment or imprisonment. Digital infrastructure would be integrated into China's regulatory framework, with strict internet censorship and real-name registration.
In education, the plan involves rewriting history and purging "pro-independence" elements. Regarding the semiconductor industry, the report suggests Beijing would likely use export controls and supply chain restrictions to leverage companies like TSMC as strategic assets against the U.S., rather than direct nationalization. The report concludes that such high-pressure tactics risk "governance fatigue" and a loss of public trust.
FAQ
What is the impact on Taiwan's semiconductor industry?
The report suggests Beijing would likely use supply chain controls and export restrictions to leverage TSMC as a strategic asset against the US, rather than direct nationalization.