Electric-Powered Carts in Public Transport May Reduce Long-Term Care Risks: Estimated 15-20 Million JPY Reduction in Care Benefits Over 6 Years

A research group including Specially Appointed Professor Katsunori Kondo from Chiba University Center for Preventive Medicine and Senior Researcher Masaki Fukusada from Nihon Fukushi University verified whether using electric-powered carts as public transportation reduces long-term care risks. The study targeted 599 elderly residents in Oji Town, Nara Prefecture, and Kawachinagano City, Osaka Prefecture, who had not received long-term care certification. Results showed that electric cart use could lead to a reduction in care risk after two years. For the user group, estimated long-term care benefits over the next six years were approximately 15 to 20 million JPY lower than for the non-user group. These findings are expected to promote regional transportation policies focused on care prevention for the elderly. The results were published in the journal Archives of Public Health on May 13, 2026.

### Research Background
Electric carts are attracting attention as a new means of supporting elderly mobility and are promoted as sustainable regional mobility. Recent studies report that they not only provide mobility support but also increase opportunities for outings and positive emotions. However, previous studies mainly examined changes over relatively short periods (2-3 months to 1 year) and were insufficient for long-term verification of impact on care risks. Furthermore, the impact of differences in operational continuity and management systems remained unclear.

### Key Research Findings
The study measured care risk using the 'Long-term Care Risk Assessment Scale.' Findings indicated that stable operation of electric carts can lead to care prevention:

* **Longitudinal Study Results:** In Oji Town, where carts were operated stably, the risk was significantly lower in the group using them at least once a month. Their risk score was 2.31 points lower than the non-user group.
* **Impact of Operational Stability:** In Kawachinagano City, where operation was temporarily suspended and frequency was reduced upon resumption, no significant difference was observed between the two groups.
* **Cost Estimation:** Based on the risk score difference in Oji Town, the user group is estimated to have approximately 15 to 20 million JPY lower care benefit costs over the next six years compared to non-users.

### Future Outlook
The research demonstrates that using stably operated electric carts can reduce care risks for the elderly. The team plans to accumulate further knowledge through verification in other regions and long-term follow-ups.

### Terminology
* **Long-term Care Risk Assessment Scale:** An evaluation tool consisting of 12 items, such as 'I use buses or trains to go out.' The maximum score is 48; higher scores indicate a higher likelihood of needing care certification within three years.
* **Longitudinal Study:** A research method involving repeated surveys and observations of the same subjects over a set period to clarify processes of change and causal relationships.

### Paper Information
* **Title:** Can electric-powered carts used in public transportation change long-term care risk among older adults?: evidence from a 2-year follow-up survey
* **Authors:** Masaki Fukusada, Masashige Saito, Ryota Watanabe, Shuhei Kobayashi, Kazushige Ide, Katsunori Kondo
* **Journal:** Archives of Public Health
* **DOI:** 10.1186/s13690-026-01931-1