Factoring Fees Forecast to Rise by Up to 10% in 3 Years Due to Bankruptcies Driven by Interest Rate Hikes: Report by Facutto

"Facutto" (https://facutto.jp/), one of Japan's largest factoring comparison media featuring 218 factoring companies (operated by Common Future & Co., Ltd.), has published a report forecasting factoring fees over the next three years. This report (https://facutto.jp/column/factoring-fee-academic-analysis), supervised by Stock Option Advisory Service Co., Ltd., is based on the independently compiled "Facutto Fee Index" and the latest corporate bankruptcy data.

Conclusion

The main conclusion is that "interest rate hikes have almost no direct effect on factoring fees; what drives fees up is the corporate bankruptcy triggered by the interest rate hikes." Factoring in the highest interest rate levels in about 30 years and a four-year consecutive increase in corporate bankruptcies, the market rate for 2-party factoring (Facutto Fee Index: currently 10.8) is estimated to rise to an index of 11.1 to 11.4 (+0.3 to 0.6 points, an increase of about 3 to 6% from the current level) over three years. If bankruptcies accelerate, it is estimated to rise to around 12 (about +1.2 points, an approximate 10% increase).

This research quantifies the "invisible burden" of rising interest rates, which disproportionately affects small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and sole proprietors who have difficulty utilizing bank loans.

Research Summary (3 Key Points)

1. [Forecast] The 2-party fee index will go from 10.8 to 11.1-11.4 in 3 years, and around 12 if bankruptcies accelerate.
The increase is +0.3 to 0.6 points on the index (about 3-6% up from now), and about +1.2 points in the accelerated scenario (about 10% up). The rise is expected to be a "gradual type" suppressed by inter-company competition, rather than a sudden spike.

2. [Mechanism] Interest rates affect fees not "directly" but "via bankruptcies."
Since factoring is a short-term transaction of 1 to 2 months, even if the policy interest rate rises by 1%, the direct addition to the fee index is limited to around +0.1 points. The main driver is the indirect chain: "Interest rates up -> Corporate interest payment burden up -> Bankruptcies up -> Bad debts up -> Fees up."

3. [Underlying Data] Bankruptcies increase for 4 consecutive years, accelerating in 2026.
According to Teikoku Databank, corporate bankruptcies in FY2025 reached 10,425, marking the fourth consecutive year of increase. From January to April 2026, the trend accelerated at +7.2% year-on-year, meaning upward pressure on fees will continue for the time being.

Background: "If interest rates go up, will fees go up too?"

Since the lifting of the negative interest rate policy in March 2024, the policy interest rate has risen to about 0.75% (as of December 2025), a level not seen in about 30 years, and the 10-year government bond yield reached about 2.67% (as of June 2026). In the financing field, there are growing concerns that "if interest rates go up, factoring fees might also rise."

This report uses the standard pricing theory (cost-plus method), which decomposes the fee into four components: "1. Cost of funds (interest rate) + cost of capital, 2. SG&A expenses, 3. Provision for bad debts, and 4. Profit." It verifies with data how the two variables of interest rates and bankruptcies affect fees.

Finding 1: The "direct effect" of interest rates is small.
Factoring is an ultra-short-term transaction bridging the 1 to 2 months until the collection of accounts receivable. Therefore, even if the factoring company's funding costs rise due to higher interest rates, the direct impact on the fee index is limited to around +0.1 points. What truly moves the fees is the "provision for bad debts" due to the bankruptcy of the account debtor.

Finding 2: Interest rates and bankruptcies are not mutually exclusive but "chained."
However, this does not mean interest rates are irrelevant to fees. Rising interest rates act upstream as a "trigger" that increases the corporate interest payment burden and pushes up bankruptcies. This pathway is academically consistent with mechanisms known as the "financial accelerator" and "credit channel." In fact, bankruptcies are accelerating alongside high prices, labor shortages, and the repayment of zero-interest unsecured loans.

Comment by Ippei Tanaka (Head of Facutto Editorial Department)
"The burden of rising interest rates heavily impacts SMEs and sole proprietors, who are already hard to finance, arriving delayed in the form of bankruptcies. In a phase where fees are rising, the cost of contracting based on a single quote without knowing the market rate becomes massive. We hope this index will be used as a yardstick to verify if 'my quote is too high.'"

What is the Facutto Fee Index?
It is a fixed-point observation indicator that independently aggregates and indexes the published fee conditions of factoring companies listed on "Facutto." As of May 2026, the 2-party index was approximately 10.8, and the 3-party index was approximately 5.3. It is updated monthly and can be viewed for free.