[iPhone User Survey] Only 16% Would Buy Next-Gen Model If Price Rises - The "130,000 Yen Wall" and 79% Who Would Buy If Battery Improves

All Connect Magazine, a telecommunications media outlet operated by All Connect Inc. (headquarters: Fukui City, Fukui Prefecture), conducted a survey in May 2026 on "Purchase Intentions and Price Awareness for the Next-Generation iPhone" targeting 500 iPhone users nationwide.

With price increases due to the weak yen, tariffs, and AI integration becoming a reality, the survey explored how users are thinking about upgrading to the next-generation iPhone. The survey found that nearly 80% of users are concerned about price increases, and over 90% of all respondents would stop buying if the price exceeds 200,000 yen.

[Survey Overview]

Survey Target: 500 men and women nationwide who currently use an iPhone
Survey Period: May 2026
Survey Method: Internet survey via Crowdworks
Survey Organizer: All Connect Magazine Editorial Department
Public Data (PDF/CSV): https://all-connect.co.jp/magazine/data/

[Conclusion] Only 16% Would Buy If Price Rises. The "Conditional Departure" from iPhone Has Begun

While there is some intention to purchase the next-generation iPhone, only 16% of respondents said they would "definitely buy it even if the price rises." The remaining 84% are "conditional buyers" who would reconsider their purchase depending on the price.

Purchase Intentions if the Next iPhone Price Increases
55.2% of respondents answered that they "want to buy it," exceeding half. However, a closer look reveals that those who would "buy regardless of the price increase" are a minority, with most giving conditional answers such as "would buy at the current price" or "can barely tolerate a slight increase."

Percentage
Would buy even if price increases: 16%
Would reconsider depending on the increase: 63%
Would stop buying if price increases: 21%

On the other hand, looking at the reasons given by the 44.8% who answered "do not want to buy / unsure," many cited concerns like "the price will probably go up again" or "my current model is still good enough" rather than dissatisfaction with their current iPhone. This reveals a situation where, despite attachment to the iPhone, anxiety about price is acting as a brake.

[Survey Results Summary]
・Purchase intention exists: 55.2%
・Would buy regardless of price increase: 16%
・84% are conditional buyers depending on price

Older Model Users More Likely to Say "Stop Buying"

By model, 34.6% of users with iPhone 12 or earlier (released 4+ years ago) said they would "stop buying if the price rises," the highest rate among all series. In contrast, for users of recent models like the iPhone 15 and 16, this rate was around 20%.

Purchase Abandonment Rate by Series When Price Increases

There is a structural reason for this. When users who purchased their phone more than 4 years ago upgrade next, they experience a sudden jump in price from the "100,000 yen range" of the past to the "170,000-180,000 yen range" of today. While this looks like a "gradual increase" to yearly upgraders, long-term users perceive it as a "one-time increase of 70,000 yen."

According to the Cabinet Office's Consumer Confidence Survey (March 2025), the average usage period for mobile phones is 4.3 years (Source: Cabinet Office, Consumer Confidence Survey, March 2025). As the trend of using smartphones for longer periods strengthens year by year, the price gap felt at the next upgrade will widen. The risk of losing long-term users is likely to increase further.

Background of the Growing "My Current Model is Good Enough" Group

A notable reason for hesitating to purchase was the response "my current model is still good enough." This is because smartphone specs have matured, making it difficult to feel yearly improvements.

Cameras, processing power, and communication speeds have all reached a level sufficient for daily use even in models from several years ago. Responses like "I'll use it until it breaks" and "new features don't appeal to me" were particularly common among respondents in their 30s and 40s.

It is becoming difficult to encourage upgrades solely by appealing to functional evolution, and a behavioral pattern is becoming established where users stop buying the moment they judge the price to be unreasonable.

The "130,000 Yen Wall" - 36% Cite 100,000 to Less Than 130,000 Yen as Upper Limit

The most common answer for the acceptable upper price limit for the next-generation iPhone was "100,000 yen to less than 130,000 yen" (36%). There is a "wall" where the proportion of people willing to accept the price drops sharply once it exceeds 130,000 yen.

Acceptable Upper Price Limit for the Next iPhone

Looking at the distribution of responses by price range, up to less than 130,000 yen, a cumulative 60.8% (approximately 60%) cited this as their acceptable upper limit. Meanwhile, only 1.4% said they would buy it even if it cost 200,000 yen or more.

Acceptable Price Range
Less than 100,000 yen: 24.8%
100,000 to less than 130,000 yen: 36% (most common)
130,000 to less than 150,000 yen: 18.8%
150,000 to less than 180,000 yen: 14%
180,000 to less than 200,000 yen: 5%
200,000 yen or more: 1.4%

Over 90% of respondents cumulatively said they "would not buy if the price exceeds 200,000 yen." If the Pro series of the next-generation model enters the 200,000 yen range, the potential buyer base could shrink significantly.

[Survey Summary]
・Most common acceptable price: 100,000 to less than 130,000 yen (36%)
・Cumulative 60.8% cite up to less than 130,000 yen as upper limit
・Only 1.4% would buy at 200,000 yen or more

Why 130,000 Yen Becomes the "Acceptable Upper Limit"

The figure of 130,000 yen almost exactly matches the list price of the current "iPhone 15 128GB" (124,800 yen). In other words, for many users, "about the same as the model they currently have" is the acceptable upper limit.

iPhone prices have already risen by nearly 40,000 yen from the iPhone 12 (approx. 87,000 yen) in 2020 to the current model. The feeling that "if it goes up again, I can't afford to switch" has created the "130,000 yen wall."

Price Comparison with Competing Android Models Makes the "Wall" More Apparent

The "130,000 yen wall" is also linked to market prices for competing Android devices. Models that receive equal or higher ratings than the iPhone, such as the Galaxy S25 (from the 120,000 yen range) and Google Pixel 9 (from the 80,000 yen range), are becoming available for under 130,000 yen.

In the past, the iPhone was something people would "buy even if expensive" because the performance gap with Android was clear. However, that gap is now narrowing. The situation where "an Android phone that works as well as an iPhone can be bought for under 130,000 yen" is pushing down users' price benchmarks. The price comparison target is no longer just between iPhones but has expanded to include Android devices, reflecting the current market.

79% Would Buy If Battery Improves Even at a Higher Price - Ranking of Purchase-Deciding Factors

When asked, "If the price were to increase, what function or evolution would make you purchase?", the most common answer was "significant improvement in battery life" (79.0%). This garnered more than double the votes of the second-place answer, "thinner and lighter body" (34.4%), making it the overwhelming top choice.

Functions That Would Be Decisive for Purchase When Price Increases (Multiple Answers)
Significant improvement in battery life: 79%
Thinner and lighter body: 34.4%
Evolution of camera performance: 33.4%
Significant improvement in chip performance: 25.6%