Curry Price in March 2026: 362 Yen Per Serving; Cheap Rice Offset by High Meat/Vegetable Prices; Slowdown in Price Reductions Due to High Ingredients; Naphtha Concerns After April

Teikoku Databank Co., Ltd. has independently calculated the "Curry Rice Price Index," which indicates the degree of impact on household dining tables.

SUMMARY

The average price of curry rice in March 2026 was 362 yen per serving (339 yen in the previous year).

This is an 8-yen decrease from January (370 yen), which updated the highest value since the survey began, marking the second consecutive month of decline. The average for fiscal year 2025 was 353 yen per serving.

The curry rice price in April 2026 is expected to hover around an average of 361 yen per serving. Currently, the worsening situation in the Middle East is expected to lead to higher crude oil and naphtha prices, which are likely to spread widely to food prices, raising the possibility of a rebound in food inflation on dining tables after summer.

Teikoku Databank Co., Ltd. has independently calculated the "Curry Rice Price Index," which indicates the degree of impact on household dining tables.

[Note 1] Curry Rice Price: An index independently calculated based on the raw materials used for curry rice and the utility costs for cooking.

Average value of 5 menus: Beef Curry, Pork Curry, Chicken Curry, Seafood Curry, Vegetable Curry.

Various price data refer to the average values for each city (national average) from the "Retail Price Survey (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)." The cooking scenario assumed "cooking 6 servings (1/2 pack of commercial curry roux) at once."

Curry Rice Price Index: Price trend based on the monthly curry rice prices, with the 2020 average set to 100.

[Note 2] The survey scope and capacity for curry rice prices were partially changed in January 2026, and retroactive revisions were made back to January 2015.

Curry Rice Price in March 2026: 362 yen per serving; High ingredient costs continue, limited benefit from falling rice prices.

The "Curry Rice Price (average, revised to 2026 standard)," calculated based on the prices of raw materials and utility costs (national average) required for cooking curry rice at home, and visualizing the impact of price increases on dining tables, averaged 362 yen per serving in March 2026. This represents an increase of +23 yen or 6.8% from the previous year (March 2025: 339 yen). Compared to the previous year, the rate of increase is the lowest since July 2024, indicating that the rapid rise in food prices on dining tables is peaking out. The average for fiscal year 2025 was 353 yen per serving, an increase of 100 yen or approximately 40% over 10 years.

From January 2026 (370 yen), which updated the highest value since the survey began, prices decreased by 8 yen, falling below the previous month for two consecutive months. This was 1 yen lower than the forecast value (363 yen) at the time of the previous month's survey, which was based on price trends in the Tokyo metropolitan area, a leading indicator for national prices.

Looking at the trend from the same month last year, all menus showed an increase over the previous year. However, the rate of increase varied by menu, with "Chicken Curry" having the highest increase rate, up 10.2% from the previous year. However, compared to December 2025, which exceeded 20%, and June-July 2025, which saw rapid price increases exceeding 30%, the trend of sharp price increases has calmed down. Among all menus, "Vegetable Curry" had the smallest fluctuation from the previous year, with an increase of only +6 yen or 2.3%.

"Rice," which has strongly pushed up curry rice prices, has seen demand gradually stabilize due to the government's release of "stockpiled rice" and the distribution of 2025 crop year rice. As a result, prices have fallen by about 10% from their peak, significantly curbing the rise in curry rice prices. On the other hand, many major vegetables such as potatoes and onions continue to be priced higher than average, and the worsening situation in the Middle East has made the high prices of imported pork, as well as domestic pork and chicken (which are highly dependent on imported feed), even more pronounced. The benefits of cheaper rice were offset by higher curry ingredient prices, resulting in only a gradual decline in overall curry rice prices.

Based on the average curry rice prices for each menu, the independently calculated "Curry Rice Price Index," with the 2020 average set to 100, was 139.8 in March 2026. This is the first time in five months, since October 2025, that the index has fallen below 140.

Future Outlook: April 2026 expected to be around 361 yen; "Reiwa Rice Crisis" impact diminishes, but possibility of re-rise after summer.

The curry rice price in April 2026 is expected to hover around an average of 361 yen per serving, based on price trends in the Tokyo metropolitan area, a leading indicator for national prices. This is a 1-yen decrease from March, marking the third consecutive month of decline from the previous month. Furthermore, the year-on-year increase will be 18 yen (343 yen → 361 yen), marking the first time in 1 year and 10 months, since June 2024 before the "Reiwa Rice Crisis" fully materialized, that the increase has been in the 10-yen range. The wave of the "curry shock" that intensified in 2025 is currently showing signs of calming down.

The sharp rise in rice prices that occurred in 2025 has subsided, and prices continue to be significantly lower than the previous year, which is a major factor in reducing the cost of food, including curry rice. On the other hand, basic vegetables that are main ingredients of curry rice, such as onions, continue to be priced higher than average due to record high temperatures and drought in the previous year, leading to smaller sizes. In addition, the worsening situation in the Middle East has made the high prices of imported pork, as well as domestic pork and chicken (which are highly dependent on imported feed), even more pronounced. The benefits of cheaper rice were offset by higher curry ingredient prices, resulting in only a gradual decline in overall curry rice prices.