Anime Data Insight Lab Releases 'Winter 2026 Anime Data Analysis' - New Hit Structure Born from Streaming x Theatrical... Reading 'Chou Kaguya-hime!' Through Data

Bushiroad Inc.'s group analytics organization, the Anime Data Insight Lab (Representative: Yusuke Onuki), has conducted research in the anime business. This time, they analyzed data from all 81 anime works from Winter 2026 (TV and movies) to understand which works maintain viewer interest and what changes are occurring. We kindly request members of the press to handle this information.

Introduction

The Winter 2026 anime season is nearing its end. This season features a large lineup with 69 TV anime being broadcast (48 new works, 21 sequels).

This article analyzes data from the latter half, spanning up to 11 weeks, to see which works continue to capture viewers. Furthermore, in a first-time initiative, 12 movie anime have been added to the analysis subjects.

The reason for including movies is simple: by looking only at TV anime, one might miss the most talked-about work of the season. The highest fan score (X post volume) was recorded not by a TV anime, but by a movie. Moreover, it was a completely original work, not a theatrical film of an existing IP. We determined that 'Winter 2026' cannot be discussed while ignoring this fact.

Analysis Overview

**Analysis Subjects** **Winter 2026 Anime (January-March period) - Total 81 works** - TV Anime: 69 works (48 new, 21 sequels) - Movie Anime: 12 works

**[Data Used]** - Trend Score (Google search volume) = General recognition - Fan Score (X post volume) = Fan enthusiasm

**[Analysis Period]** - TV Anime: 1st broadcast week ~ most recent week (max 11 weeks) - Movie Anime: Release week to max 7 weeks

All Works Ranking: Viewing TV and Movies Together

The ranking of all 81 works this season, without distinguishing between TV and movies, is as follows.

In terms of maximum trend score, 'Jujutsu Kaisen: Kaijuu Dai-kaiyuu Part 1' ranked first at 100.0. This figure was recorded in the third week, showing an increase from the initial surge. The fact that 4 out of the Top 10 works were movies highlights the significant presence of theatrical anime this season.

The work that took first place in maximum fan score was 'Chou Kaguya-hime!'. Surpassing Jujutsu Kaisen's 97.4, it topped all 81 TV and movie anime. Notably, this '100.0' score was the peak after its theatrical release, but it had already achieved an exceptional score of '102.4' on Netflix during its prior streaming release.

TV anime can provide regular opportunities for discussion through weekly broadcasts. Movies consolidate attention into a single event: their release. The fact that it achieved the number 1 fan score despite this structural disadvantage is noteworthy in itself. This will be analyzed in detail in a later section.

TV Anime Only Ranking: End-of-Season Retention Rate

Retention is a meaningful metric specifically for TV anime that broadcast weekly. Since its release format differs from movies, we will focus solely on the 69 TV anime here.

The calculation method is "latest week / first week." Works with at least 8 weeks of data are included. As a reference, the median retention rate for TV anime trend scores overall was 31.4% for new works and 45.6% for sequels. This means an average new work's search volume drops to about 30% of its initial week by the latest week.

The number 1 ranked 'Fire Force Season 3 Part 2' (245.5%) saw its trend score jump approximately threefold from 11 to 35 in the fifth week. This coincides with the nationwide rollout of 'L Pachislot Fire Force 2' in early February, suggesting that a new audience learned about the work through pachislot.

It is important to note that 'Golden Kamuy Final Chapter' (208.1%), ranked second, had a live-action movie release scheduled for March 13th. The increase in trend score from the seventh week onwards likely includes the promotional effect of the live-action movie.

Among the Top 10, 4 were new works. While sequels dominate the initial surge, the structure where new works also compete in retention rates is consistent even in the latter half. However, all new works had small initial scores, and the percentage of retention rate alone does not convey their scale. Retention rate is proof of 'not losing viewers,' but it is separate from 'being a hit.'

An interesting reversal occurs here. Looking at the median, new works showed 43.9% for trend score retention compared to 40.0% for sequels. While sequels outperformed new works in trend score retention, new works reversed this in fan score retention.

Search behavior is easily influenced by IP recognition, giving sequels an advantage. On the other hand, SNS posting is driven by the emotion of 'wanting to talk about it.' New works are disadvantaged in search volume but are not inferior to sequels in their 'power to make people want to talk about it.' For new works, fan score retention might be a more important indicator of health than trend score.

### Did a 'Dark Horse' Emerge in This Season's TV Anime?

Looking at the data so far, it's noticeable that no "dark horse" works (new works with small initial surges that rose significantly in the latter half) have emerged from this season's TV anime.

The new works in the top 10 for retention rate have generally maintained a steady or slightly increasing trend score from their initial small scores, indicating a state of 'holding onto core fans but not expanding significantly.'

While there was an absence of dark horses among TV anime this season, the work that topped the fan score for the entire season was not a TV anime but an original movie. An 'explosion' that was difficult to achieve within the framework of TV anime occurred in a different framework: streaming to theatrical release. This contrast will be examined in detail in the next section.

Chou Kaguya-hime! - From Streaming to Theatrical, a Fan Score of 100.0 Trajectory

Typically, the fan score for a movie anime peaks around its release week and then declines. This was the case for most other movies.

Most movies drop to around 40% of their release week's score by the third week. Movies naturally tend to concentrate buzz around their release date, so this movement is natural.

'Chou Kaguya-hime!' completely deviated from this decay pattern. The fan score after its theatrical release continued to rise: from 64.4 in the release week to 92.2 in the second week (143%) and 100.0 in the third week (155%). For three weeks after release, while other movies dropped by more than half, this work moved in the opposite direction.

The background to this is the work's unique two-stage release path.

'Chou Kaguya-hime!' was first streamed on Netflix, and its fan score rapidly increased from 19.5 in its first streaming week to 70.6 in the second, and 102.4 in the third. At this point, it was already a 'work sufficiently talked about even with streaming alone,' but the buzz did not end there.

Following the positive reception, a theatrical release was decided, and the number of screening theaters expanded. Upon the start of theatrical screenings, the fan score rose again from 64.4 to 100.0. Typically, it is difficult for a work that has already peaked with a streaming release to generate this level of enthusiasm again with a theatrical release.

The 'viewers who watched via streaming' and the 'viewers who watched in theaters' each generated distinct discussions, and the two-stage structure of streaming and theater created two peaks.

The trend score followed a similar pattern. It rose from 7.2 to 39.0 during the Netflix streaming period, and further reached a higher level of 44.2 to 52.7 upon theatrical release. The recognition broadened during the streaming period has added to the search volume for the theatrical release.

And this work was 'completely original.' The theatrical anime that garnered attention in 2025 were theatrical versions of existing IPs like 'Chainsaw Man' and 'Demon Slayer,' works that have reasons to be searched for even before their release.

'Chou Kaguya-hime!' had no original manga and was completely original. Starting from a state where virtually no one had a 'reason to search' beforehand, it surpassed Jujutsu Kaisen in fan score.

Why Chou Kaguya-hime! Became a 'Dark Horse'

While there was an absence of dark horses among TV anime this season, expanding the view beyond television, 'Chou Kaguya-hime!' can be called the season's biggest dark horse.

A dark horse is a title given only to works with low initial expectations. 'Chou Kaguya-hime!' was completely original, meaning its prior expectation level was relatively low compared to existing IPs. The trend score of 7.2 in its first Netflix streaming week illustrates this.

So, why was it able to reach a fan score of 100.0? It wasn't simply 'because it was original.' Original anime have traditionally been difficult to hit. The key was the process itself: a work that was streaming-exclusive was released theatrically, and its screening venues expanded. This 'rags-to-riches' progression created an atmosphere of 'it must be amazing if it's getting a theatrical release despite being streaming-exclusive,' reaching even those who had only a casual awareness, making it a 'must-watch work.'

This atmosphere was fostered on X, TikTok, and YouTube. Additionally, the real-world venue of theaters generated depth in word-of-mouth, blending the slow, deep spread characteristic of movies with the explosive diffusion of social media. The role played by the theatrical release was not merely an additional screening format but a device to deliver a work nurtured through streaming to the 'masses.'

The dark horses of past TV anime shared a similar structure: heat builds in niche communities, then explodes through TikTok buzz or X diffusion. For 'Chou Kaguya-hime!', Netflix served as the 'place where heat gathered,' and the theatrical release acted as the 'trigger for explosion.' In this season's TV anime, retention-rate leaders among new works 'gathered heat' but lacked a trigger for explosion. This season's dark horse was found outside of television.

Conclusion

No dark horses emerged from this season's TV anime. However, this season's dark horse was found outside of television.

'Chou Kaguya-hime!' achieved a fan score of 100.0 through a cumulative buzz from its streaming to theatrical release path, driven by a complex circuit of streaming, social media, and theaters, despite being an original work with low initial expectations.

This season, TV anime lacked a trigger for explosion. However, the streaming-to-theatrical path revealed a new way for dark horses to emerge. We are entering an era where failing to update our view of data will lead to overlooking interesting developments.

**• Report Author** Keisuke Yutsudou SevenDayDreamers Inc. Keisuke Yutsudou, after working as a data scientist at Macromill Inc. and launching multiple new businesses, served as head of data analysis, growth hacking, product development, corporate planning, and HR at FiNC Technologies. He currently leads SevenDayDreamers Inc., focusing on maximizing the value of content IPs using data and AI.

**• Report Editor** Anime Data Insight Lab Representative: Yusuke Onuki

The Anime Data Insight Lab will continue to provide useful information and services to those involved in the anime business.