Pairs Launches 'Chance Encounter Experiment Station' to Test the Odds of Meeting a Hometown Love in Shibuya

Eureka Inc. (headquartered in Minato-ku, Tokyo; CEO: Ryuma Yamamoto), the company behind the dating and marriage-focused app 'Pairs (Pairs)', will open a limited-time 'Chance Encounter Experiment Station' in front of Shibuya Mark City on June 19, 2026, in celebration of 'Romance Day'. The first 200 participants who complete a survey will receive a 'Pairs Chance Encounter Probability T-shirt'.

With the cooperation of Atsushi Fujimoto, a comedian and University of Tokyo graduate known for his expertise in probability calculations, Pairs has created 13 unique 'chance encounter scenarios'—such as 'the probability of bumping into someone while running with bread in your mouth' and 'the likelihood that a 'let’s get married if we’re both single at 30' pact actually comes true'—that many people imagine as the start of romance. Pairs has seriously calculated the actual probability for each scenario. These results will be displayed on 12 outdoor advertisements located within a 500-meter radius of Shibuya Station, coinciding with 'Romance Day'—designated by the Japan Romanticist Association based on the phonetic wordplay 'Ro(6)-man-ti(1)-c(ku)9'.

*1 Some outdoor ads will be released in advance on June 15.

Additionally, from June 19 to 20, the 'Chance Encounter Experiment Station' will conduct a real-world experiment on the 13th scenario: 'the probability of meeting someone from the same hometown in central Tokyo (Shibuya) and falling in love'. The first 100 participants each day (200 total) who complete a 'Chance Encounter Survey' will receive the limited-edition 'Pairs Chance Encounter Probability T-shirt'. The results of this experiment will be announced in late June after the event concludes.

What are the real odds of those 'it happens all the time!' romantic encounters? Pairs and University of Tokyo graduate comedian Atsushi Fujimoto reveal 13 calculated scenarios.

According to Pairs’ April 2026 survey, 'Reality Check on How People Seek Serious Relationships', approximately 9 in 10 (87.6%) young people seeking serious relationships prefer 'chance or natural encounters', and about 7 in 10 (66.6%) hold some hope that such encounters might actually happen—revealing a widespread state of 'waiting for chance' in the Reiwa era. However, nearly 9 in 10 (88.1%) reported not having experienced their ideal 'chance encounter' in the past six months, highlighting a clear gap between expectation and reality.

*2 For details, see 'The Reality of Youth Avoiding Romance: “Reiwa-Era Chance Waiting” – Pairs’ Survey on Serious Dating Habits'.

In response to these findings, Pairs enlisted Fujimoto to calculate the actual probabilities of 'chance encounters'—how likely they are to occur and whether people can realistically expect to experience them. Through a custom survey asking about 'ideal fated meetings', Pairs identified the most popular romantic scenarios and created 13 'Chance Encounter Scenarios'. Fujimoto then calculated the probability for each.

The 13 calculated 'Chance Encounter Scenarios':

1. Probability of meeting someone from the same hometown in a major city (Shibuya) and falling in love

2. Probability that a long-lost crush from school suddenly messages you saying 'I want to see you'

3. Probability that a 'Let’s get married if we’re both single at 30' pact actually happens

4. Probability of meeting your ideal person at a 3-on-3 group blind date

5. Probability that a friend’s friend is just the right person when you say 'I wish I had someone nice'

6. Probability that the person you see every morning at the same convenience store register becomes your partner

7. Probability that bonding over 'Wasn’t today’s concert setlist amazing?' leads to romance

8. Probability that someone you exchanged contacts with while drunk later messages you, leading to a relationship

9. Probability that you fall for someone you thought was just a friend after being struck by their smile

10. Probability that the joke 'You two should just date already!' actually comes true

11. Probability of bumping into a child running with bread in their mouth at a street corner

12. Probability of falling in love after someone eats a shrimp cracker from your hair

13. Probability of sharing an umbrella with a stranger during sudden rain and falling in love

For example, the scenario being tested at the 'Chance Encounter Experiment Station'—'meeting someone from the same hometown in Shibuya and falling in love'—was broken down by Fujimoto into four key romantic triggers: '① Number of new potential romantic partners you have one-on-one conversations with in Shibuya', '② Number of municipalities in Japan', '③ Probability that both are of dating age and similar generation', and '④ Probability that both find each other attractive'. After gathering and multiplying these values, the calculated 'chance encounter probability' was just 1 in 26,059 (0.0038%).

With Fujimoto’s collaboration, Pairs has calculated the 'chance encounter probability' for all 13 scenarios. The results and their calculation methodologies are displayed on 12 outdoor ads within a 500-meter radius of Shibuya Station. The probabilities and components for 'the “let’s get married at 30” pact', 'bumping into a bread-carrying runner', and 'falling in love after someone eats a shrimp cracker from your hair' are being released early in this press release. For the remaining probabilities, explore Shibuya and find the ads!

Pairs has adopted 'Intention in Encounters' as its new slogan, encouraging people to move beyond the 'Reiwa-era chance waiting' mindset—where people strongly hope for low-probability 'chance or natural encounters'—and instead take intentional steps toward new connections and meaningful relationships.

Comment from Atsushi Fujimoto, University of Tokyo graduate and comedian:

Q1: Some scenarios felt like scenes from a shojo manga. What were the results of your probability calculations?

The scenarios we examined—like 'bumping into a girl running with bread in her mouth' or 'being struck by the smile of someone you thought was just a friend'—all felt like they could be from a shojo manga, and I was initially very excited. But when I seriously calculated the odds, many of the numbers turned out to be quite harsh. Pursuing romantic encounters might be like continuing to play a lottery that almost never pays off.

Q2: How did you approach the calculation process?

For data like averages that are publicly available, I selected appropriate values. But deciding which data to use for each calculation was challenging. There’s no official data on how many people run with bread in their mouths, so I used statistics on oversleeping, tardiness, average commute times, and rates of accidental collisions. Looking at the calculation process, no one would guess it’s about fated love.

Q3: What kind of chance encounter do you personally dream of?

I’ve always dreamed of the bookstore moment—reaching for the same book and saying 'Ah…'. But even when I reach for math or physics books, that moment never comes. My hand…