The 207th Business Sentiment Survey: Regular Survey (January-March)
According to the business sentiment survey for January-March 2026, sales DI is stagnant due to Middle East risks and soaring prices, with significant declines especially in manufacturing and transportation sectors. Wage increase intentions are also slowing down, and capital investment sentiment is polarizing by industry.
📋 Article Processing Timeline
- 📰 Published: April 30, 2026 at 22:30
- 🔍 Collected: April 30, 2026 at 14:01
- 🤖 AI Analyzed: April 30, 2026 at 17:21 (3h 19m after Collected)
Approaching Middle East risks, growing anxiety: Sales DI decreased by 3.5 points, Profit DI increased by 0.1 points.
Overall, the sales DI was -6.0 (down 3.5 points from the previous period), and the profit DI was -8.8 (up 0.1 points from the previous period). The sales DI increased in three industries: retail (+13.4 points from previous period), dining (+3.1 points), and services (+6.3 points). It decreased in four industries: manufacturing (-9.1 points), wholesale (-0.5 points), transportation (-25.7 points), and real estate (-13.7 points), showing a clear divergence.
Against the backdrop of persistently rising prices, procurement costs have soared, and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) downstream, struggling with insufficient price pass-through, are experiencing deteriorating profitability, which is putting a brake on their ability to respond to wage increases. Furthermore, the escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to a surge in crude oil prices, contributing to a broad range of price increases, including fuel and energy costs, and showing signs of prolonged impact.
For the April-June 2026 quarter, we predict the sales DI will decrease by 2.8 points and the profit DI by 6.1 points.
Fluctuating Capital Investment Intentions: 'Planned' for Manufacturing and Wholesale Decreased.
Overall, for capital investment, 'in progress' was 15.7% (up 0.9 points from previous period), and 'planned' was 12.7% (down 0.8 points), totaling 28.4%.
Notably, the 'planned' category decreased from the previous period in two industries: manufacturing at 10.7% (down 2.7 points) and wholesale at 5.7% (down 5.1 points).
Problem 'Rising Procurement Costs' Soars: 'Rising Procurement Costs' 78.1% (up 8.9 points from previous period).
Regarding management issues, overall, 'rising procurement costs' was 78.1% (up 8.9 points), 'increased general expenses' was 51.4% (up 5.7 points), 'stagnant/decreasing sales' was 42.8% (down 3.1 points), and 'labor shortage' was 38.4% (down 4.7 points). 'Rising procurement costs' sharply increased against the backdrop of Middle East geopolitical instability.
'Wage Hikes' Hit the Brakes: 'Planned to implement' 58.2% (down 1.8 points from last year).
Regarding 'wage increases,' 'planned to implement' was 58.2% (down 1.8 points from last year), indicating a slowdown. This decrease from the previous year was observed in all industries except dining and construction.
Furthermore, on a monetary basis, both base-up and regular salary increases showed an increase in 'less than 1,000 yen' and '5,000 yen or more,' indicating a polarization trend.
For details, please refer here.
https://www.osaka-shinkin.co.jp/pdf/report/202603_teirei.pdf
Survey period: Mid-to-late March 2026
Target period: January-February 2026 (actuals), March (forecast), April-June 2026 (outlook)
Target companies: 1,435 client companies of our bank (within Osaka Prefecture, Amagasaki City)
Number of responding companies: 576 companies (response rate 40.1%) (responses via mailed questionnaires and Web)
Overall, the sales DI was -6.0 (down 3.5 points from the previous period), and the profit DI was -8.8 (up 0.1 points from the previous period). The sales DI increased in three industries: retail (+13.4 points from previous period), dining (+3.1 points), and services (+6.3 points). It decreased in four industries: manufacturing (-9.1 points), wholesale (-0.5 points), transportation (-25.7 points), and real estate (-13.7 points), showing a clear divergence.
Against the backdrop of persistently rising prices, procurement costs have soared, and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) downstream, struggling with insufficient price pass-through, are experiencing deteriorating profitability, which is putting a brake on their ability to respond to wage increases. Furthermore, the escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to a surge in crude oil prices, contributing to a broad range of price increases, including fuel and energy costs, and showing signs of prolonged impact.
For the April-June 2026 quarter, we predict the sales DI will decrease by 2.8 points and the profit DI by 6.1 points.
Fluctuating Capital Investment Intentions: 'Planned' for Manufacturing and Wholesale Decreased.
Overall, for capital investment, 'in progress' was 15.7% (up 0.9 points from previous period), and 'planned' was 12.7% (down 0.8 points), totaling 28.4%.
Notably, the 'planned' category decreased from the previous period in two industries: manufacturing at 10.7% (down 2.7 points) and wholesale at 5.7% (down 5.1 points).
Problem 'Rising Procurement Costs' Soars: 'Rising Procurement Costs' 78.1% (up 8.9 points from previous period).
Regarding management issues, overall, 'rising procurement costs' was 78.1% (up 8.9 points), 'increased general expenses' was 51.4% (up 5.7 points), 'stagnant/decreasing sales' was 42.8% (down 3.1 points), and 'labor shortage' was 38.4% (down 4.7 points). 'Rising procurement costs' sharply increased against the backdrop of Middle East geopolitical instability.
'Wage Hikes' Hit the Brakes: 'Planned to implement' 58.2% (down 1.8 points from last year).
Regarding 'wage increases,' 'planned to implement' was 58.2% (down 1.8 points from last year), indicating a slowdown. This decrease from the previous year was observed in all industries except dining and construction.
Furthermore, on a monetary basis, both base-up and regular salary increases showed an increase in 'less than 1,000 yen' and '5,000 yen or more,' indicating a polarization trend.
For details, please refer here.
https://www.osaka-shinkin.co.jp/pdf/report/202603_teirei.pdf
Survey period: Mid-to-late March 2026
Target period: January-February 2026 (actuals), March (forecast), April-June 2026 (outlook)
Target companies: 1,435 client companies of our bank (within Osaka Prefecture, Amagasaki City)
Number of responding companies: 576 companies (response rate 40.1%) (responses via mailed questionnaires and Web)